Does the main battle tank still have a future?

Reference News Network, August 14 report An article titled "Do Main Battle Tanks Have a Future in Future Wars?" was published on the Hong Kong Asia Times website on August 12, authored by Stephen Bryan. The translation is as follows:

The era of main battle tanks may be coming to an end. Recent combat situations help us understand the current state of affairs.

Poor Performance on the Russia-Ukraine Battlefield

The "Abrams" is a heavy main battle tank used by the U.S. military. This tank performed poorly when deployed in small numbers in Ukraine. Open-source intelligence tracking and defense assessments show that the vast majority of the 31 tanks initially provided by the U.S. have been destroyed, heavily damaged, or abandoned/captured.

The German-designed "Leopard" and the British "Challenger"-2 tanks have also faced similar defeats. On the Ukrainian battlefield, Western main battle tanks have exposed their vulnerabilities to FPV (First-Person View) drones, anti-tank weapons, and kinetic weapons such as landmines. These tanks are generally too heavy, making it difficult to traverse muddy roads and fields, have insufficient armor protection, and lack active protection systems.

By the early 2030s, the U.S. will have a new main battle tank to replace the current M1 "Abrams." The new version of the "Abrams" main battle tank is designed to address some of the issues currently faced by tanks. Its weight will be significantly lighter than the M1 "Abrams," and it will abandon the existing gas turbine power system in favor of a hybrid power system. It will be equipped with a "built-in" active protection system. It will also adopt an unmanned turret design and introduce an automatic loading system for the first time.

For many years to come, we may not gain more understanding of the survivability of this new "Abrams" tank, as its design has yet to be validated, and this new main battle tank (including prototypes) has no combat experience.

For Russia, Ukraine, and NATO, an unavoidable reality is that the role of main battle tanks will be greatly diminished in any foreseeable European war scenario. The number of active tanks in European countries is already limited, and most are deployed in a dispersed manner, making it impossible to form sufficient offensive momentum on the battlefield. The U.S. military will have to allocate "Abrams" from its inventory and deploy them to the combat zone, which poses a significant logistical challenge.

The poor performance of all NATO tanks indicates that the current generation of tanks is likely unable to successfully withstand a multi-domain combined offensive from well-equipped adversaries.

Adjustment of Offensive and Defensive Tactics Needed

Most of the Western and Russian tanks used on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield are not equipped with active protection systems. Although the U.S. military has procured about 400 sets of the Israeli-developed "Trophy" active protection system for equipping "Abrams" tanks, public information shows that none of the tanks sent to Ukraine are equipped with this system. Recently, Russia has begun equipping the tanks it is deploying to Ukraine with the "Arena"-M active protection system.

The "Trophy" system has recently completed upgrades, improving its detection and tracking capabilities, and now has anti-drone capabilities, particularly effective against diving attacks from FPV drones.

Since World War II, tank tactics have not seen significant development. Their main use is to quickly break through enemy strongholds, trench networks, and pre-set positions where infantry and wheeled vehicles are stalled.

Clearly, the tactics of modern main battle tanks must be adjusted to address modern battlefield threats, especially the widespread use of suicide drones. The shortcoming of the "Arena"-M system is that once its ammunition is exhausted, it cannot be reloaded on the battlefield, leaving the tank extremely vulnerable to consecutive attacks from multiple FPV drones. Assessments suggest that 10 to 20 FPV drone strikes are sufficient to heavily damage or completely destroy a tank.

Another issue with the "Arena"-M (the "Trophy" system has fewer problems in this regard) is that it intercepts threats very close to the tank's body, meaning that a large amount of shrapnel will envelop the tank and its surrounding area. This makes close coordination between tanks and infantry nearly impossible.

Alternative Solutions Still Being Explored

Although there are currently many experiments exploring the use of robotic platforms to supplement or replace tanks, neither the U.S., Europe, nor Russia has formally determined this development direction. For example, the U.S. Army is looking for networked, inexpensive, and semi-autonomous robotic combat vehicles to serve as force multipliers, taking on the riskiest tasks such as reconnaissance, logistics, and assaults.

One promising technology that may be borrowed comes from the civilian autonomous driving sector: onboard sensors and supporting software used in autonomous taxis and freight trucks.

With the rise of artificial intelligence, significant advancements in sensor technology, and the collaborative interaction between ground robotic systems and persistent surveillance drones, fully autonomous robotic combat vehicles equipped with cannons and missiles may soon completely reshape the battlefield landscape once again. (Translation/ Zhao Feifei)