Does the Philippines want to disrupt the South China Sea with Indian missiles?

[Global Times Comprehensive Report] According to the Hong Kong South China Morning Post on the 9th, the Philippines hopes to purchase more Indian BrahMos supersonic anti-ship missiles to strengthen its "coastal defense" in the South China Sea, directly targeting China. Some analysts believe that the Philippines' expectation of introducing Indian anti-ship missiles to counter the so-called "Chinese threat" is essentially wishful thinking, as these missiles have limited performance and insufficient numbers, and cannot block China's efforts to defend its national sovereignty and maritime rights.

Reports indicate that Philippine Defense Minister Teodoro recently stated at a security summit in New Delhi that the Philippines hopes to expand its arsenal of BrahMos supersonic missiles purchased from India to "enhance external deterrence." In 2022, the Philippines signed an agreement with India to introduce three sets of BrahMos cruise missiles, becoming the first overseas user of the missile. This missile, jointly developed by India and Russia, is claimed to be "one of the fastest cruise missiles in the world," with a maximum speed of about 2.8 Mach, capable of carrying a 300-kilogram semi-armor-piercing or high-explosive warhead, and can be launched from land, naval vessels, and aircraft. Its maximum range in high ballistic mode is about 290 kilometers, and it can also adopt a more covert low-altitude flight mode, but the range will be halved.

According to previous reports from Philippine media, the first set of BrahMos missile systems introduced by the Philippines is deployed in the province of Zambales on the western part of Luzon Island, facing the South China Sea, with a range covering the direction of Scarborough Shoal; the second set is deployed at the northernmost tip of Luzon Island at Cape Bojeador, directly targeting the Bashi Channel frequently traversed by the Chinese Navy; the third set may be deployed on Palawan Island, aimed at another key passage to the South China Sea, the Balabac Strait. The South China Morning Post stated that after practical use, the Philippines believes that this land-based anti-ship cruise missile is more suitable for the country's terrain, indicating that Manila is seeking alternative weapons suppliers, as the Philippines' main arms supplier, the United States, is still deeply involved in conflicts in the Middle East.

Indian sources told Reuters that negotiations between India and the Philippines regarding the latter's procurement of more BrahMos missiles are in the "final stages." The Philippines is expected to purchase an additional five systems with nearly 60 missiles, valued at approximately $700 million to $800 million. The Times of India reported that this move by the Philippines comes as the country strives to accelerate military modernization and strengthen coastal defense, as "in recent years, China and the Philippines have repeatedly clashed in disputed waters in the South China Sea."

Some analysts believe that the BrahMos anti-ship missile is the first modern anti-ship missile acquired by the Philippines, representing an important attempt by the Philippines to extend its land-based firepower into the open sea. However, the BrahMos missile has been in service for over 20 years, and its overall performance is no longer advanced. Since the missile's range far exceeds the detection range of the launch vehicle's radar, the Philippines must obtain precise target coordinates before launch to utilize this beyond-visual-range precision strike weapon, which requires supporting long-range reconnaissance, communication command systems, and dedicated data links. The Philippines lacks high-resolution reconnaissance satellites and is short of long-endurance early warning aircraft and long-range maritime patrol aircraft, relying only on non-stealth Hermes drones imported from Israel. The latter is not only easily destroyed in wartime but also has compatibility issues with data transmission concerning the Indian missile.

Moreover, a complete BrahMos missile system consists of multiple missile launch vehicles, radar vehicles, and command vehicles, making the target very obvious in wartime. The poor road conditions in the Philippines also affect the wartime mobility of the BrahMos system. The Philippines has requested India to customize the missile for easier mobility on roads, bridges, and between islands, indicating a serious mismatch between the BrahMos missile and the local infrastructure environment. In light of these shortcomings in the quantity, system support, and survivability of the Philippines' BrahMos system, the People's Liberation Army has sufficient capability to break the "firepower blockade" they create. Some in the Philippines boast that these missiles are a so-called "game changer in the South China Sea," but this is merely wishful thinking. (Chen Shan)