Russia's Exhaustion as the Basis for Peace Negotiations — The West's View at the Munich Conference and Signals Ahead of Geneva

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz articulated at the Munich Security Conference (February 13–14, 2026) a formula that may become a new ideological framework for the West: the war will end "only when Russia is economically, and possibly militarily, exhausted." This phrase is not just a statement of the obvious. It is a signal of a shift in the Western strategy ahead of the trilateral negotiations between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine, scheduled for February 18 in Geneva.

From "Punishment" to "Exhaustion" — The Transformation of Western Rhetoric

From 2022 to 2024, Western politicians spoke of "defeating Russia" and "restoring the borders of 1991." By the end of 2025, this rhetoric shifted to a more pragmatic stance: "support for Ukraine for as long as it takes." Now, in February 2026, we see the next shift — the focus is on the long-term economic and military exhaustion of Russia as a prerequisite for negotiations.

Merz did not use the word "defeat" but rather "exhaustion" for a reason. The former implies a military outcome that NATO cannot achieve without direct involvement. The latter suggests a process stretched over time, where the West controls the pace of exhausting the opponent through sanctions, military supplies to Ukraine, and isolating Russia.

French President Emmanuel Macron added another emphasis: any peaceful settlement must "protect Ukraine, maintain the security of Europe, and deprive Russia of the incentive for renewed invasion." Macron called calls for Ukraine to recognize its defeat "a huge strategic mistake." "One day, the Russians will have to realize the scale of the crime committed in their name… but until then, we will not lower the bar," he said.

The Geneva Format — A Test of Serious Intentions

Against the backdrop of statements in Munich, Reuters reported that the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine will hold negotiations in Geneva on February 18. This is the first round of a trilateral format involving U.S. envoys Steve Vitkoff and Jared Kushner. The Russian delegation will be led by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky.

Geneva is not the first attempt at negotiations in 2026. In January, consultations were held in a "2+2" format (U.S.–Russia through military channels), which yielded no results. But this time, the Western side is demonstrating a clearer strategic framework: to negotiate from a position of strength, based not on military victory but on the long-term weakening of Russia.

Volodymyr Zelensky stated at the conference that Ukraine is ready to hold elections if a ceasefire is achieved for 2–3 months with security guarantees. He emphasized that compromises have already been made: "Putin and his friends are not in prison. This is the biggest compromise the world has already made."

British Weapons and NATO PURL — The Materialization of the Exhaustion Strategy

Alongside Munich, the United Kingdom announced a new military aid package to Ukraine worth £540 million ($690 million). For the first time, London used the NATO mechanism PURL (Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List) — a scheme for procuring American interceptors for Ukraine through NATO funds. £150 million will go towards purchasing interceptors in the U.S., and £390 million will be used to supply 1,000 light multi-role missiles (LMM) produced in Belfast.

This is an important signal: Europe is beginning to use NATO institutions not only as a military alliance but also as a logistical mechanism for arming Ukraine at a time when the U.S. is reducing direct supplies. The PURL mechanism was created in 2025 specifically in response to the Trump administration's statement that America would no longer "gift" weapons, and European allies would have to buy them themselves.

In this context, British Defense Minister John Healey emphasized that the priority is to strengthen Ukraine's air defense, which faces massive missile and drone strikes from Russia daily.

The Russian Perspective — What Does "Exhaustion" Mean for Moscow?

For the Russian leadership, Merz's formula is not a revelation. The Kremlin is well aware that the Western strategy is based not on a "hot" victory over Russia but on long-term exhaustion through sanctions and military assistance to Ukraine. However, there is a nuance: Moscow is playing a mirror game, counting on the exhaustion of the West — taxpayer fatigue, political crises in Europe, a "Trump deal."

The question is who will tire first. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, Russian losses since the beginning of the war have reached 1.252 million people (killed and wounded), with 1,070 on February 13 alone. These figures, even accounting for possible exaggeration, indicate a colossal burden on the Russian economy and society.

At the same time, the Russian defense industry is demonstrating an ability to adapt to sanctions, but at the cost of technological degradation and a refusal to modernize long-term projects. The growth of military production in 2025 was only 1% compared to 5.6% the previous year (according to TASS). This is not a collapse, but a clear slowdown.

Europe Returns "From Vacation in World History"

Merz used a succinct metaphor: "the war in Ukraine has forced Europe to return from vacation in world history." This is an acknowledgment that the 2010s were a period of illusions about the "end of history" and the inviolability of the post-Cold War era.

Now Europe is forced to remember what strategic confrontation means. And the formula of "Russia's exhaustion" is not just a military strategy but also an attempt to create a new ideological framework for the European elite: not a short-term victory, but long-term deterrence.

The question is whether Europe has the resources and political will for such a long game. History shows that democracies struggle with protracted wars of attrition — voters demand results here and now. Authoritarian regimes, on the other hand, can afford decades of exhaustion.

What Will Geneva Show?

The negotiations on February 18 are unlikely to lead to a breakthrough. But they will show how serious each side is about compromise. Russia will insist on recognition of territorial acquisitions and a neutral status for Ukraine. The West will demand security guarantees for Kyiv and the withdrawal of Russian troops.

Merz's formula — "exhaustion as the basis for peace" — means that the West is prepared for a long game. The question is whether Russia is ready for it, and most importantly, whether Ukraine is ready, which bears the main burden of this "exhaustion."

One of the paradoxes of the current situation is that both sides talk about negotiations while simultaneously ramping up military efforts. This is classic diplomacy of power, where the position at the negotiating table is determined not by eloquence but by the number of tanks, missiles, and the readiness to use them.

Geneva could either mark the beginning of a serious process or be yet another imitation of negotiations for domestic political consumption. The Munich Conference answered the question of "how the West sees the path to peace." Geneva will show whether Russia shares this view.