Expert: The U.S. May Avoid Communicating with Israel to Cancel Plans to Attack Iran to Prevent Escalation

According to Israeli sources on the 2nd, multiple Israeli officials revealed that prior to the U.S. unilaterally canceling the established attack plan against Iran, Israel was excluded from decision-making information for several hours and was completely unaware of the U.S. decision to cancel the operation. What cracks in U.S.-Israel relations does this expose? Will the isolation of allies' information push Israel to take unilateral action?

To avoid losing control of the situation, the U.S. is unwilling to be influenced by Israel in its decisions regarding Iran

Qin Tian, Deputy Director of the Middle East Studies Institute at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations: There are indeed signs that the U.S. has excluded Israel from the decision-making process this time, particularly reflected in the military escalation actions against Iran, as the U.S. did not notify Israel in advance when canceling this operation. This reflects Trump's hesitation regarding military action against Iran, as he hopes to avoid a complete loss of control and a full escalation of the situation. If the U.S. had informed Israel in advance, Israel would have lobbied and dissuaded, which would have actually created new complications for the U.S. decision-making.

There are obvious differences between the U.S. and Israel regarding negotiations with Iran

Qin Tian, Deputy Director of the Middle East Studies Institute at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations: In this matter, Trump chose not to communicate with Israel in advance, not only due to contradictions over war issues but also because there are similar contradictions regarding negotiations. The Trump administration still views advancing negotiations with Iran as an important option for resolving the current crisis. From Trump's statements on social media, he hopes to forcefully bring Israel onto the negotiation track, but this has not received genuine recognition from Israel.

The U.S. President hopes to shape an image independent of Israel

Qin Tian, Deputy Director of the Middle East Studies Institute at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations: For his domestic political considerations, Trump is currently striving to shape an image independent of Israel. Over the past year, especially after the war on the 12th and the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war on February 28, many in the international community, including many in the U.S., believe that Trump initiated the war against Iran under the influence and persuasion of Israel. Both Democrats and establishment Republicans, as well as many citizens, believe that the current Trump administration is too pro-Israel and has not prioritized America first. Therefore, Trump's intention this time is to highlight that he is not influenced by Israel and to exclude Israel from decision-making, showcasing his strong presidential independence.

Netanyahu dares not go against the U.S. on the eve of elections

Qin Tian, Deputy Director of the Middle East Studies Institute at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations: In this situation, Israel is very dissatisfied, but it is unlikely to conduct independent military strikes against Iran apart from the U.S. First, Trump's attitude is very clear this time; he wants Israel to comply, rather than the past approach of allowing or even following some of Israel's actions, which is different from this attitude. Therefore, facing Trump's clear stance, Israel is hesitant to go against Trump's wishes. Second, Netanyahu is also facing the Israeli parliamentary elections this fall, and at this critical juncture, he is unwilling to offend the U.S., especially President Trump.