Four Years of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Slim Hopes for Peace Negotiations, Stalemate in Diplomacy and Military Efforts

【Global Times Special Correspondent in Russia, Xiao Xinxin】“Four years after the outbreak of war, the peace process in Ukraine has stalled.” Bloomberg reported on the 24th that February 24 this year marks the fourth anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and there are “no signs of an end in the short term.” Since the beginning of this year, Russia, the United States, and Ukraine have held three rounds of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, UAE, and Geneva, Switzerland, but have failed to reach a solution, while most of Ukraine's European allies have been excluded from the negotiations. Sources say that the U.S. is pushing for a peace agreement to be reached before the 250th anniversary of American independence on July 4 this year, but there are no signs that Russia is willing to agree to a deal that does not meet its core demands. At the same time, Ukraine is also insisting on its own position.

According to the Ukrainian News Agency on the 24th, on the fourth anniversary of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian President Zelensky delivered a video speech stating that Russian President Putin “has not achieved his goals,” has not defeated the Ukrainian people, nor won this war. He stated that Ukraine longs for a solid, dignified, and lasting peace. A peace agreement cannot be signed lightly and must be accepted by the Ukrainian people. He invited Trump to “visit Ukraine in person” to “truly understand the significance of this war.” Additionally, it was reported that the head of the Ukrainian President's Office, Budanov, said on the 23rd that the next round of trilateral talks between Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia is expected to take place around the 27th, and the parties are still coordinating the specific arrangements for the talks, including the time, participants, and location. During the trilateral talks held in Geneva on the 17th and 18th, the Ukrainian delegation raised the possibility of a meeting between Zelensky and Putin, but the Russian side has not yet given a final response.

On the fourth anniversary of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe once again demonstrated its support for Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian News Agency, on the 24th, the press secretary of the Ukrainian president, Nikiforov, stated that European Council President Costa, European Commission President von der Leyen, and other EU leaders, as well as leaders from Nordic and Baltic countries, arrived in Kyiv that day to participate in activities related to the fourth anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

U.S. “Politico” reported that von der Leyen is expected to propose that the EU provide 100 million euros to Ukraine to assist with a winter energy plan.

The EU issued a statement on the 24th stating that this year should be the year to end the war in Ukraine. The EU firmly supports Ukraine and is determined to continue providing political, military, financial, and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Ukraine has clearly demonstrated its commitment to a just and lasting peace, including seeking a ceasefire. However, Russia “refuses to cease fire,” showing no signs of easing the situation.

According to Reuters on the 24th, the British government announced a series of new aid to Ukraine that day, including 20 million pounds for the repair of Ukrainian energy facilities, 5.7 million pounds for humanitarian aid, and providing medical guidance and helicopter flight instructor training to Ukraine. Additionally, British Prime Minister Starmer will host a meeting of the “Volunteer Alliance” aimed at supporting Ukraine on the 24th.

Furthermore, it was reported that French President Macron stated on social media on the 24th that France and Europe will firmly stand by Ukraine. Europe will continue to provide equipment and ammunition to Ukraine, conduct training, strengthen air defense and counter-drone capabilities, continue sanctions against Russia, strike at the Russian economy, and ensure that European interests are fully considered in negotiations.

TASS reported on the 24th that Russian presidential press secretary Peskov stated that four years ago, after the intervention of European countries and the United States, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has actually evolved into a larger confrontation between Russia and Western countries, and Western countries have always harbored ambitions to destroy Russia. He stated that Russia's goals in the special military operation in Ukraine have not yet been fully achieved, so the operation will continue. However, Russia hopes to achieve the goals of the special military operation through diplomatic means. The date for the next round of negotiations on the Ukraine issue has not yet been agreed upon. Russia hopes that relevant work within the framework of negotiations can continue to advance. Russia maintains a clear and coherent position on resolving the Ukraine issue, but the negotiation process depends on Ukraine's specific actions.

Reuters reported on the 24th that the United States has gradually withdrawn most of its direct military support for Ukraine since last year and has urged Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement; however, the negotiations are currently “generally at a standstill,” and the outlook remains unclear. The fighting between Russia and Ukraine continues, with both sides suffering losses and casualties. The report stated that since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia has controlled about one-fifth of Ukraine's territory. As the front lines have been largely consolidated, the pace of Russian military expansion has significantly slowed. Since the beginning of 2023, Russia has only added about 1.3% of Ukrainian territory under its control on the battlefield. Data released in January by the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies indicated that since 2022, Russian military casualties have averaged over 26,000 per month, including killed, wounded, and missing soldiers, with a total casualty count reaching 1.2 million. However, Peskov responded that such reports “cannot and should not be regarded as reliable information,” and only the Russian Ministry of Defense has the authority to provide relevant information.

Russian “Military Observation Network” and others reported on the 24th, citing analysis that, given the fundamentally different positions of both Russia and Ukraine, it may be difficult to achieve substantial progress in negotiations in the short term. Currently, there are no key factors in either the military or diplomatic arenas that could change the situation, and military confrontations between Russia and Ukraine will continue. The Russian military will continue to carry out military operations to achieve established goals. “Military Observation Network” reported that Ukraine's situation is deteriorating, and as the U.S. no longer strongly supports Ukraine, internal divisions within Europe are also weakening the support Ukraine can receive.