PLA's Two Aircraft Carrier Task Forces Appear in the Western Pacific, 49 Military Aircraft Activities Reveal New Focus on Taiwan Exercises
Li MinghuiPLA's Two Aircraft Carrier Task Forces Appear in the Western Pacific, 49 Military Aircraft Activities Reveal New Focus on Taiwan Encirclement Exercises
In early November, an unusual set of numbers emerged around the Taiwan Strait: Taiwan reported detecting 49 sorties of PLA military aircraft, 6 naval vessels, and 6 civilian ships within a 24-hour window, of which 31 sorties crossed the median line of the Strait and entered Taiwan's central, southwestern, and eastern airspace. Notably, the Liaoning carrier group was reported to be operating in the Philippine Sea, while the Fujian carrier was active in the South China Sea, indicating that the two carrier directions do not overlap.
The Force Structure Behind the Numbers
Looking solely at the 49 sorties, this is not a number sufficient to prove a "full-scale attack on Taiwan." Another 24-hour window subsequently released by Taiwan showed only 22 sorties of military aircraft, but the number of vessels remained at 7 naval ships and 5 civilian ships. The fluctuations themselves indicate that the current situation resembles continuous maneuvering and phased deployment, rather than a one-time push of all forces to the front of the Taiwan Strait.
However, with over 100 naval and coast guard vessels distributed across the Western Pacific and two aircraft carriers operating simultaneously in the region, the focus of observation has shifted. It demonstrates that the PLA can integrate carrier training, coast guard law enforcement, long-range formations, and air operations in the Taiwan Strait within the same time frame. In other words, the pressure surrounding Taiwan no longer relies solely on military aircraft and naval vessels within the Taiwan Strait but extends to the Philippine Sea, South China Sea, and the eastern side of Taiwan.
The Value of the Fujian Carrier Goes Beyond a Single Deployment
The Fujian carrier, officially commissioned in November 2025, is China's first aircraft carrier to utilize an electromagnetic catapult system. Public information is still insufficient to prove that it possesses the same complete long-range combat capabilities as the Liaoning carrier, especially regarding the scale of carrier-based aircraft, launch cycle rates, and formation resupply capabilities, which still lack continuous public data. However, its operations in the South China Sea, in coordination with the Liaoning carrier's activities in the Philippine Sea, at least provide a training framework worth observing.
The author believes that the real technical challenge is not whether the aircraft carrier can "appear," but whether it can maintain high-intensity flight, early warning aircraft support, and formation air defense after moving far from its home base. The simultaneous operations of two aircraft carriers may seem like an increase in quantity, but in essence, they are testing the Chinese Navy's fuel, ammunition, maintenance, and carrier aviation support chain. Production capacity is no longer the only bottleneck; long-range maintenance is the next hurdle.
From Military Pressure to Maritime Isolation Exercises
The U.S. Institute for the Study of War, based on publicly available tracks and navigation warnings, suggests that China may be conducting a significant military exercise simulating the encirclement and isolation of Taiwan, which has not been publicly announced. Taiwan, on the other hand, describes the large-scale maritime and aerial activities as gray zone pressure. These two assessments are not contradictory: if the goal is to test wartime blockade, the most effective method may not be to announce an exercise but to allow the navy, coast guard, and air force to maintain a switchable presence in different maritime areas.
This poses a real problem for Taiwan's defense. Taiwan cannot only focus on the median line of the Strait but must also monitor the eastern side of Taiwan, the Bashi Channel, and the Philippine Sea direction simultaneously; meanwhile, the PLA can consume Taiwan's readiness and intelligence resources through low-intensity, prolonged operations. International shipping will also be psychologically affected; even without a real blockade, shipping insurance, rerouting of merchant vessels, and port scheduling will reflect risks in advance.
What Piece of the Puzzle is Still Missing?
Currently, public reports mainly come from Taiwan's defense department, Taiwanese security officials, and external research institutions, and the PLA has not announced the nature of this exercise. Therefore, one cannot directly equate "over 100 vessels" with combat formations, nor can one infer that the Fujian carrier has already developed mature combat capabilities.
What is truly worth tracking is whether, in the coming days, there will be high-frequency takeoffs and landings of carrier-based early warning aircraft and fixed-wing carrier-based aircraft, as well as the sustained presence of long-range supply ships and large destroyers. If these elements appear simultaneously, then the focus of this operation is not just to create pressure but to validate a system capable of incorporating the eastern maritime and aerial domains of Taiwan into a controlled combat zone. The question is, how much capability is the PLA willing to publicly demonstrate, and how much capability still needs to be proven in a real crisis?
References
Chinese military exercises involved 49 aircraft and multiple naval vessels in the Western Pacific, simulating encirclement of Taiwan. The People's Liberation Army Navy operated two aircraft carrier groups in the Philippine Sea and South China Sea, indicating a shift in military strategy. Taiwan's defense is challenged as it must monitor various maritime areas due to this increased military presence.
- 49 Chinese military aircraft detected in a 24-hour period
- 6 naval vessels and 6 civilian ships reported in the area
- Chinese aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait
- Two aircraft carrier groups operating simultaneously in different regions
- Taiwan must monitor multiple maritime areas due to increased military activity