French media: The French army is likely to remain a "bonsai army"

According to a report by Reference News Network on August 1, the French newspaper Le Figaro published an article on July 28 titled "The French Army is likely to remain a 'bonsai army': capable of combat, but too small in size to sustain a high-intensity conflict," authored by Bruno Varlet. The main content of the article is as follows:

France has crossed a historic threshold with the "Military Planning Law": compared to 2017, France's defense spending in 2027 will nearly double. However, the gap between France's expressed military ambitions and the actual resources allocated for conventional defense remains concerning.

France's defense budget for 2026 accounts for 2.1% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is indeed substantial. However, this budget is misleading. Of it, 13% is allocated to nuclear deterrence, and the funds actually available for conventional defense (43% of the total) remain very limited. Additionally, investments in unavoidable technologies such as quantum technology and artificial intelligence further reduce funding for military equipment.

Due to limited resources, the "Military Planning Law" cannot prioritize the scale of the French military. Therefore, the French military may still remain a "bonsai army": capable in many areas but too small in scale to sustain a high-intensity conflict over the long term. However, defense is not an exam; it is a competition that must keep pace with the best over the long term. An ambitious "Military Planning Law" should focus on combat effectiveness, not just serve as a political signal.

If France's budget situation requires us to remain vigilant (with annual debt interest payments reaching 65 billion euros, now exceeding the defense budget), recent regional conflicts and technological revolutions have also brought significant industrial opportunities. The key lies in responding to the new realities of the defense industrial market: scaling, robotization, digitization, and lethality (i.e., the ability to destroy the enemy).

Participants making progress in military technology and commercial aspects are those building their development around these priority directions. The war in Ukraine has proven this point. Conflicts are no longer merely technical; they are also industrial, based on the speed of innovation and the scale of production.

Sovereignty is not declared by decree: it is patiently built through a dense, competitive, and autonomous industrial system. The share of French industry in GDP has nearly halved (from 24% in 1980 to 13% in 2026), and this deindustrialization directly threatens national strategic autonomy. Without an autonomous industry, there is no true freedom.

The French defense industry has not been able to escape the vulnerabilities of the domestic industry, and the nature of defense itself adds additional standards and burdens. A comprehensive industrial policy is imperative; otherwise, France may only become a sovereign nation in debt, rather than the master of its own fate.

The defense market is dominated by large industrial prime contractors, backed by thousands of subcontractors and suppliers. Among them, the innovation and production capabilities of small and medium-sized enterprises have not received sufficient support.

Some countries have already recognized this. Sweden strives to maintain autonomous industrial capabilities and understands the importance of trusting these small and medium-sized enterprises.

What France needs is a coherent "Military Planning Law" that funds troop size and supports R&D investments; a combat-oriented "Military Planning Law" that focuses on the integrity of troop equipment and system coordination; and a trust-based "Military Planning Law" that reflects budget credibility and trust in the industrial sector. (Translated by Liu Zhuo)