German Media: Three Possible Reasons Behind the Sudden Ceasefire Between the US and Iran

Reference News Network, July 30 report The German magazine Der Spiegel published an article on July 27 titled "What Might Be Hidden Behind Iran's Sudden Ceasefire," authored by Cornelius Dickmann. The article points out that on the 26th, the United States suspended its strikes against Iran for the third consecutive night. Iran has also ceased attacks on U.S. military bases in the region.

Previously, President Trump had ordered attacks on Iran for 13 consecutive days.

The article suggests that this unexpected ceasefire may have three reasons.

1. The U.S. arsenal is running low

Five months into the war, the U.S. has consumed a large amount of ammunition, particularly the stock of air defense systems like the "Patriot" missiles. According to a report by The New York Times, on the 24th, someone reminded Trump during a meeting with senior advisors and cabinet members that further attacks could severely deplete the arsenal.

It is said that Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Kane told Trump that while further attacks are militarily feasible, they could significantly exhaust the weapons stockpile. According to CNN, Vice President Pence also issued a similar warning to Trump. As early as April, the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that more than half of the U.S. core interception systems had been consumed.

Not long ago, during an attack by Iran on a U.S. military base in Jordan, a ballistic missile breached the U.S. defense system, resulting in the deaths of several American soldiers. According to U.S. media reports, as early as late February, before the U.S. launched military strikes against Iran, Kane had warned Trump that military action could lead to a long and costly war. However, Trump believed the Israelis. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu convinced Trump that quickly toppling the Tehran regime and destroying Iran's nuclear program was achievable.

2. Behind-the-scenes mediation is underway

The U.S. government is working to avoid giving the impression of being helpless. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Michael Walz stated on the 26th that the president hopes to "leave some space for negotiations," which is unrelated to the depleted arsenal, and that "all options" remain on the table. This does not mean that it has been decided not to escalate the situation further. Negotiations are "taking place at various levels."

On the 24th and 25th, a delegation from the Gulf nation of Oman held talks with the Tehran regime to discuss how to resolve the shipping issues in the blocked Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated, "The talks were beneficial and made progress," but he did not disclose details. Oman has previously acted as a mediator between the U.S. and Iran. Trump stated on the 24th that Iran had shown a "more serious" attitude in the recent negotiations.

Trump is trying to create the impression that Iran is at a disadvantage. However, most experts believe that the Iranian regime is ideologically more capable of enduring a prolonged war.

3. Trump is concerned about domestic political costs

The American public does not support this war. According to Defense Secretary Esper, the war against Iran has cost $37.5 billion. Oil prices have recently risen again. This war has resulted in the deaths of 18 U.S. military personnel and injuries to 624 others.

A recent poll conducted jointly by The Washington Post and Ipsos Group shows that only 29% of Americans are satisfied with Trump's handling of the Iran war. A Politico survey indicates that even among Trump's core voter base—the "Make America Great Again" supporters—patience is wearing thin. In May, half of this far-right group believed it was worth paying an economic price for this war, but that figure has now dropped by 13 percentage points, just slightly above one-third.

The Republican Party, led by Trump, is now worried about whether it can maintain its majority in Congress in the midterm elections in November. At that time, the entire House of Representatives and more than one-third of the Senate seats will be up for reelection. Last week, the House of Representatives demanded for the second time that Trump end his military actions.

Additionally, according to a report from the German news television channel on July 28, polls show that public support for the Iran war has fallen to its lowest point since the conflict began five months ago. A joint survey by Reuters and Ipsos Group indicates that currently only one-third of American citizens support the military action. Furthermore, 69% of respondents believe that Trump has not clarified the objectives of the military intervention.

Since the joint U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28, public support for this action has remained below 40%. In the lead-up to the midterm elections in November, this unpopular foreign policy is putting pressure on Trump and the Republicans. They need to defend their slim advantages in both houses of Congress in this election. (Translated by Jiao Yu and Zhong Sirui)