Hotspot Q&A | Can the Saudi Defense Alliance Curb Houthi Attacks?

Xinhua News Agency, Cairo, October 7 - Hot Questions and Answers | Can the Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey Defense Alliance Curb Houthi Attacks?

Xinhua News Agency reporters Wu Baoshu, Yin Zha, Luo Chen

On October 7, the Yemeni government forces continued to engage in combat with the Houthi armed forces on Yemen's west coast with air support from Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the Houthis continued to launch missile and drone attacks on targets within Saudi Arabia.

On October 5, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey held an emergency meeting of the "Mecca Defense Alliance" Strategic Political and Defense Committee in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, agreeing to immediately deploy military forces in Saudi Arabia. What military forces will the Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey Defense Alliance deploy? What is the latest situation in the conflict? Can the new military deployment curb the ongoing Houthi attacks?

What military forces will be deployed?

The "Mecca Joint Defense Agreement" signed by the three countries in August stipulates that any armed attack on one of the three countries will be regarded as an attack on all three. International opinion believes that as the Houthis increasingly frequently attack Saudi Arabia, the "Mecca Defense Alliance" is facing its "first real test."

According to a joint statement issued by the three countries on October 5, the "Mecca Defense Alliance" Strategic Political and Defense Committee decided to immediately fulfill its collective defense commitments and take necessary measures to ensure that the military forces agreed upon by the three countries are rapidly deployed to Saudi Arabia in accordance with approved arrangements and the domestic laws of each contracting party.

The British news site "Middle East Eye" reported on the 6th, citing anonymous Turkish government officials, that Turkey has no intention of sending a large number of soldiers to Saudi Arabia and will not directly intervene in the Yemeni conflict, but plans to send a small number of troops and air defense equipment to provide defensive support to Saudi Arabia, with the Turkish parliament expected to approve this action later this month.

Before the signing of the "Mecca Agreement," the Saudi Ministry of Defense announced in April this year that a military force from Pakistan had arrived at King Abdulaziz Air Base located in the eastern region of Saudi Arabia, consisting of fighter jets and support aircraft belonging to the Pakistan Air Force. Sources say this force includes about 8,000 personnel.

Retired Brigadier General Tughral Yamin, a senior researcher at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute in Pakistan, stated that Pakistan will strengthen its military presence in Saudi Arabia this time, focusing on "professionalism rather than large-scale" deployments, possibly increasing air defense forces, drones, military communication systems, and more.

Andreas Krieg, an associate professor at King's College London’s Department of War Studies, believes that Pakistan can provide support to Saudi Arabia in air defense, training, advisory roles, and manpower, while Turkey can offer intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, radar, as well as air defense and drone systems support.

What is the latest situation in the conflict?

On October 5, the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council announced the launch of "Operation Yemen Dawn," aimed at recapturing areas controlled by the Houthi armed forces. The Saudi-led coalition stated that 100 of its fighter jets participated in the operation early that morning.

Later on the evening of October 5, the Yemeni government forces announced that they had regained control of the strategic Zubab area near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and recaptured the Red Sea port city of Mocha. However, the Houthis claimed on the 6th that they had repelled several government military advances towards the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, forcing the opposing forces to "retreat."

Sources from both the Yemeni government forces and the Houthis told Xinhua reporters on the 7th that the government forces were under heavy missile and drone attacks from the Houthis, currently controlling parts of the Zubab area but have not yet regained Mocha. The Yemeni Ministry of Transport stated on the 7th that the Houthis launched ballistic missiles and drone attacks on Aden International Airport early that morning, forcing a passenger plane to divert to Saudi Arabia. There are currently no reports of casualties.

Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree stated on the 7th that the organization launched a new round of attacks using ballistic missiles and drones on several airports and military facilities within Saudi Arabia, including King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, with attacks on three military camps in southwestern Saudi Arabia resulting in "dozens of casualties" including Saudi soldiers and officers. The Saudi side has not yet responded to the Houthis' claims regarding casualties and damage at the aforementioned locations.

Yemeni political analyst Talib Al-Hassani stated that compared to when the Saudi-led coalition intervened in the Yemeni conflict in 2015, the Houthis now possess more missiles and drones, and the threat currently faced by Saudi Arabia is "much greater," potentially incurring higher security costs and economic losses in the long-term conflict.

Can the Houthi attacks be curbed?

Analysts indicate that in the face of the Houthi threat, Saudi Arabia is currently increasing its support for the military actions of the Yemeni government forces while also seeking defensive support and collective deterrence from the "Mecca Defense Alliance," while leaving room for a political solution.

Adel Shuja, a political science professor at Sana'a University in Yemen, stated that the latest cooperation under the framework of the "Mecca Defense Alliance" can enhance Saudi Arabia's air defense capabilities, but it cannot weaken the Houthis' existence as a military force, making it difficult to ensure Saudi Arabia's long-term security and stability.

Independent Turkish political analyst Batu Joskun stated that the deployment of Turkish and Pakistani troops in Saudi Arabia can enhance Saudi Arabia's monitoring, early warning, and defense capabilities, but the Houthis possess a large number of low-cost drones, and the newly deployed forces cannot completely eliminate their threat.

Yemeni political analyst Mukbil Naji stated that the situation in Yemen is "highly unstable," with territories potentially changing hands repeatedly. Even if the Yemeni government forces regain lost ground on the west coast, the Houthis can retreat to surrounding highlands to regroup and launch counterattacks, continuing to threaten Saudi oil facilities and shipping with missiles and drones.

Abdulaziz Shabani, a researcher at the Riyadh Political and Strategic Research Center in Saudi Arabia, stated that the situation in Yemen involves multiple dimensions, including military, political, and regional aspects, and it is difficult to resolve the crisis solely through military means. Saudi Arabia needs to comprehensively utilize various capabilities and methods to respond. Joskun also believes that in the long run, a political solution is the only option.