Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping Escalate; Experts: In Response to Iran's Game Against the U.S.

On August 5 local time, the Houthi armed group in Yemen issued a statement saying that the organization attacked a Saudi oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden. This was the second announcement of an attack on a Saudi oil tanker by the group on the same day. Why has the Houthi armed group intensified its attacks recently? Does this indicate an escalation of regional conflict? What impact will attacking Saudi oil tankers have on regional security?

The Houthi armed group's actions against shipping in the Red Sea have escalated

Qin Tian, Deputy Director of the Middle East Institute at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations: Since late July, the Houthi armed group's actions in the direction of the Red Sea have been steadily increasing. On one hand, they have maintained their blockade and attack intensity against Saudi vessels, while on the other hand, they have expanded the scope of their attacks, initially focusing on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait and now hoping to extend to the northern Red Sea and even towards the Suez Canal. This escalation reflects two considerations of the Houthi armed group.

The Houthi armed group strengthens its control over Red Sea shipping

Qin Tian, Deputy Director of the Middle East Institute at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations: First, the Houthi armed group aims to systematically strengthen its influence and control in the Red Sea region. After the outbreak of the Israel-Palestine conflict in October 2023, the Houthi armed group has engaged in some actions targeting Red Sea shipping, but at that time, it was more about simple harassment. Now, the Houthi armed group has noticed that Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into an important tool for maintaining national security through its blockade, and the Houthis are also emulating this to some extent. By implementing a targeted blockade and pressure on Saudi Arabia, they are continuously expanding the range of their attacks at both ends of the Red Sea, essentially trying to establish the Red Sea as a strategic support for safeguarding their own security.

The Houthi armed group seizes the opportunity to support Iran in its game with the U.S.

Qin Tian, Deputy Director of the Middle East Institute at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations: Second, the Houthi armed group intends to assist Iran and respond to Iran's actions. Since early August, as the Trump administration canceled military escalation actions against Iran, the U.S. and Iran have begun to engage in contact regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, the U.S. and Iran are still in a state of open and covert conflict, needing leverage at the negotiating table. The Houthi armed group's attacks in the Red Sea, in coordination with the Strait of Hormuz, have become an important bargaining chip for Iran in its game with the U.S. In the future, the Houthi armed group will continue to act according to the situation. If the U.S. and Iran reach relevant agreements and the Strait of Hormuz achieves a certain degree of reopening, the Houthi armed group's strategic support for Iran will weaken, and the effectiveness of their attacks in the Red Sea will also diminish, potentially leading the Houthis to downgrade or even cease their attacks in the Red Sea.

The Houthi armed group will adjust its subsequent actions based on the U.S.-Iran negotiations

Qin Tian, Deputy Director of the Middle East Institute at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations: If the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran do not yield results and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed, the Houthi armed group may continue to maintain the current frequency and intensity of attacks. The developments from the outbreak of the new round of the Israel-Palestine conflict to the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, especially the situation in the past month, have sufficiently proven that the Houthi armed group has indeed become an important participant in the security landscape of the Middle East. The future actions of the Houthi armed group will also have a more profound and substantive impact on the future security situation in the Middle East.