In the Next 10 Days, Will War Be Imminent?

On the 19th, U.S. President Trump stated that Iran should reach an agreement with the United States within 10 to 15 days. Some commentators believe that Trump's remarks seem to be a "final ultimatum" to Iran. Is a military action by the U.S. against Iran imminent? How will Iran respond? What concerns does the U.S. have about taking military action?

Is war imminent?

When asked by reporters about the deadline for an agreement between the U.S. and Iran, Trump said, "10 to 15 days is enough, it's about the limit."

Earlier that day, Trump mentioned that whether the U.S. and Iran would reach an agreement would be clear "in about the next ten days." He stated that Iran must reach a "meaningful agreement" with the U.S., or "bad things will happen."

The Wall Street Journal reported on the 19th, citing informed sources, that Trump is "considering" a "limited initial military strike" against Iran to compel Iran to accept U.S. demands regarding the nuclear agreement while avoiding a large-scale conflict.

According to informed sources, the first round of attacks could target some Iranian military or government facilities; if Iran continues its uranium enrichment activities after being struck, the U.S. may launch a large-scale operation against key facilities of the Iranian regime, "possibly aiming to overthrow the regime."

This year, the U.S. has continuously increased its military presence around Iran, pressuring Iran to negotiate and reach an agreement with the U.S. Currently, the U.S. has deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and numerous fighter jets and air defense missile systems around Iran.

On the 13th, Trump confirmed that he would send a second carrier strike group to the Middle East. U.S. officials told the media that the additional USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group would take at least a week to reach the vicinity of Iran from the Caribbean.

How will Iran respond?

In the face of U.S. pressure, Iran is simultaneously engaging in dialogue and negotiations with the U.S. to show its willingness to resolve differences while fully preparing for war, demonstrating its determination for self-defense and counterattack.

On the 6th of this month, Iran and the U.S. held indirect negotiations in Muscat, the capital of Oman, and on the 17th, both sides held indirect negotiations again in Geneva, Switzerland. After the two rounds of talks, both Iran and the U.S. stated that progress had been made and agreed to continue contact. However, from public statements, it appears that both sides remain uncompromising on core differences.

The U.S. demands that Iran completely abandon uranium enrichment while seeking to limit the range of Iran's ballistic missiles. The Iranian government has stated that it does not seek to possess nuclear weapons, is willing to accept any form of verification, and hopes to reach a fair and just agreement to lift the sanctions imposed on Iran, but there are two red lines: the right to peacefully use nuclear energy cannot be deprived, and missile capabilities are non-negotiable.

In the context of increasing military pressure from the U.S., the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy conducted live-fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz from the 16th to the 17th, during which its warships launched new missiles, and drone units practiced offensive maneuvers.

On the 17th, some waters in the Strait of Hormuz were closed for several hours due to Iranian military exercises. The commander of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy stated that as soon as they receive orders from superiors, Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz at any time. On the 19th, the Iranian Navy also conducted a one-day joint exercise with the Russian Navy in the Gulf of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean.

What concerns does the U.S. have?

Analysts believe that the Trump administration is attempting to use extreme military pressure to force Iran to make concessions in negotiations, aiming to "achieve maximum gain at minimal cost"; if unsuccessful, it may launch military strikes against Iran. However, the U.S. has not yet taken action, not only seeking to "win without fighting" but also due to military considerations and multiple concerns.

First, the U.S. is still deploying more military forces, especially waiting for the arrival of the second carrier strike group in the Middle East. Sasha Blumenthal, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies' Middle East office in Bahrain, believes that the U.S. "has the capability to launch airstrikes against Iran immediately," and the reason for the continuous increase in military deployment is to defend against Iranian retaliation. The U.S. has many military bases in the Middle East, and "whether it can defend the entire region is a question."

Secondly, the U.S. is concerned about triggering a long-term large-scale conflict that would deplete its strategic resources and energy. Analysts believe that if the U.S. takes military action, Iran will retaliate, and Gulf countries may be affected due to the presence of U.S. military bases within their borders; at the same time, Israel may coordinate with the U.S. in an attack, and regional "resistance forces" such as the Houthis may participate in the conflict, potentially resulting in a "regional war." From the "12-day war" in June last year, it can be seen that the military actions of Israel and the U.S. did not defeat Iran nor compel Iran to submit.

Thirdly, the U.S. is worried about triggering severe fluctuations in the global energy market, which could harm its own economy. Gulf countries are major suppliers of international crude oil, and Iran's recent military exercises have indicated that it could block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital international energy transport route, if necessary. Analysts believe that if U.S. military action leads to turmoil in the Gulf region, or even prompts Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy market will experience fluctuations, oil prices may rise, and in turn, increase inflation levels in the U.S.

From the perspective of public opinion in the U.S., a poll conducted by Quinnipiac University in January this year showed that 70% of American voters do not want the U.S. to take military action against Iran. Some analysts believe that if military action against Iran does not yield significant "results," it could provoke domestic and international criticism, and even harm the U.S. economy, leading to a further decline in domestic support for the Trump administration. This year is a midterm election year for the U.S. Congress, and this political cost is also a significant concern for the Trump administration.

Reporter: Wu Baoshu