Informed sources: Pentagon assesses reduction of military presence in the Middle East

According to multiple anonymous sources disclosed on the 18th, the Pentagon is conducting an informal assessment of the U.S. military presence in the Middle East, with one key area being whether to withdraw troops from the Persian Gulf after the end of hostilities with Iran. The U.S. military bases located there have suffered significant damage during the conflict, and experts have suggested that U.S. forces and equipment be relocated westward to Jordan, Israel, or the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia.

It is reported that this assessment is led by the Pentagon's policy office, with the U.S. military's Joint Chiefs of Staff and Central Command also studying related issues. Sources emphasize that U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has not formally ordered an assessment of the U.S. military situation in the Middle East; the ongoing assessment is considered "prudent planning" and may ultimately provide solutions for rebuilding U.S. military bases to the U.S. government.

One official stated that some decisions must be made regarding certain aspects of the assessment. There are reports that the Pentagon's assessment is an "early sign" that the conflict with Iran may change the U.S. military presence in the Middle East, but multiple sources stress that any permanent change in the U.S. military posture in the region is still far off and requires high-level government approval.

According to sources, the assessment may intensify debates within the government between two factions: one supporting military intervention and the other believing that the Pentagon should scale back some security commitments to defend the U.S. homeland or concentrate forces to deter adversaries.

The Central Command, responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East, typically deploys about 40,000 troops at nearly 20 locations in the region. The largest permanent U.S. military bases in the Middle East are located in Bahrain and Kuwait, around the Persian Gulf.

Since the outbreak of hostilities with Iran, several U.S. soldiers have been killed, and over 200 U.S. military facilities have been damaged or destroyed. The U.S. military has also expended over 1,000 advanced air defense interceptors, leading to depleted stocks of various missile types. The Pentagon publicly estimates that the cost of the conflict with Iran could reach $37.5 billion by the end of September, but this amount does not include the rebuilding of military bases in the Middle East, primarily because the government has not yet decided how to proceed with reconstruction. According to an estimate from a U.S. center-right think tank in April, rebuilding the attacked U.S. military bases could cost $5 billion.

Some think tanks have suggested that the U.S. close military bases located in countries like Kuwait that are within the range of Iranian airstrikes and concentrate troops scattered across the UAE, Jordan, and Bahrain into relatively safe bases in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, pro-Israel lobbying organizations have called for more U.S. military assets to be transferred to Israel.

Michael Ratney, who previously served as a U.S. envoy to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, acknowledged that the conflict with Iran "does highlight... the vulnerabilities of U.S. forces in the Middle East." While relocating troops and equipment further west to Jordan, Israel, or Saudi Arabia is not a perfect solution, it may help alleviate some pressure. It is understood that General Michael Kurilla, the commander of U.S. Central Command, is also involved in related discussions and supports considering the westward relocation of U.S. forces.

Moreover, changes in the U.S. military presence may affect Gulf countries that have relied on U.S. security protection for decades. These countries may increase domestic military investments or collaborate with other nations to offset the gaps left by the U.S. military, which could take months or even years. Some core U.S. allies in the Middle East have expressed dissatisfaction with the U.S. for not consulting them properly before initiating the conflict with Iran.

Allison Mina, who served as the director for Arabian Peninsula affairs on the White House National Security Council during President Trump's first term, stated that Gulf countries could maintain some elements of their security partnership with the U.S., including arms sales and intelligence sharing, even as the U.S. reduces its troop presence, "but you need to have a comprehensive discussion about all issues, not just troop numbers."