International Observation | Considerations of Russia and Ukraine Hitting Each Other's "Rear Areas"

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 22 (Reporter Geng Pengyu) In recent days, Russia and Ukraine have been engaged in large-scale mutual strikes. The Russian military has conducted several rounds of high-intensity strikes on Ukrainian military-industrial targets and port facilities, while the Ukrainian military has launched deep strikes against important industrial facilities and logistics hubs in the Russian rear. Some believe that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is showing a trend of shifting the focus of attack and defense to each other's "rear areas," but analysts expect that while both sides will continue to conduct long-range strikes on each other's logistics supply systems, it will be difficult to change the current overall situation of "limited warfare."

Mutual Strikes on Rear Areas

In the past few days, Russia and Ukraine have implemented large-scale deep mutual strikes targeting each other's logistics supply systems. Ukrainian President Zelensky stated on social media that Ukraine's long-range strike operations have a wide distribution of targets and a large depth span. Russian President Putin has sent a strong signal, stating that Russia will retaliate with double the force.

On the Russian side, starting on the night of the 17th, the Ukrainian military attacked two logistics centers in Moscow and Tambov regions, resulting in casualties. According to Zelensky, the Ukrainian military targeted logistics hubs used by the Russian military to supply components for drones and navigation equipment. From the night of the 19th to the early morning of the 20th, over 400 Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow and surrounding areas, which the Mayor of Moscow described as one of the largest attacks by Ukraine on the region to date. On the 21st, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that the Russian side intercepted and destroyed more than 200 Ukrainian drones over multiple regions in Russia and over the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea the previous night.

On the Ukrainian side, Ukrainian media reported on the 19th that the Russian military launched the largest and most intense ballistic missile attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv since the escalation of the conflict in February 2022. Within 40 minutes, the Russian military fired approximately 40 ballistic missiles at Kyiv, including various models such as "Iskander-M," "Zircon," and S-400. The Russian Ministry of Defense later confirmed that the targets of the strikes were Ukrainian military supplies and fuel storage facilities. From the 20th to the 21st, the Russian military also struck Ukrainian port facilities such as the port of Odesa, as well as Ukrainian long-range drone assembly and storage facilities, and energy and transportation infrastructure.

Chen Yu, deputy director of the Eurasian Studies Institute at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, pointed out that the current focus of the Russia-Ukraine game is each other's "rear areas," and the scale of strikes on each other's logistics supply fields has expanded compared to before.

Mutual Considerations

Analysts point out that the recent shift in strike targets to each other's rear areas reflects the considerations of both sides.

For Ukraine, traditional ground offensives are unlikely to change the battlefield situation. By attacking the Russian logistics supply system, it can weaken the Russian military's frontline combat capabilities. At the same time, Ukraine has extended its strike targets to infrastructure related to the livelihoods of Russian citizens, attempting to exacerbate Russia's economic difficulties and intensify negative sentiments among the public. An article from the Royal United Services Institute in the UK analyzes that Ukraine's continued strikes on key Russian facilities such as energy will transform deep operations into pressure on the Russian economic system. Analysts believe that this move may further exacerbate social unrest and anxiety in Russia, putting greater pressure on the Russian government from public opinion and reducing Russian society's tolerance for the conflict. Russian military expert Alexei Anpilogov also believes that Ukraine's escalation of strikes against Russia has domestic political considerations—using the demonstration of the Ukrainian military's combat capabilities and fighting spirit to offset the psychological unease caused by the recent change of defense ministers.

For Russia, Russian military expert Vasily Dandikin analyzes that striking Ukraine's rear has multiple values. On one hand, targeting drone assembly workshops, missile component storage warehouses, etc., within Ukraine can compress the production capacity of Ukraine's long-range strike equipment, destroy Ukraine's military production chain, and weaken its ability to launch surprise attacks on Russian territory from the source. On the other hand, targeted strikes on core hubs in Ukraine such as Odesa, Chernomorsk, and Yuzhny, where military aid is received and grain and oil are exported, can cut off Ukraine's foreign aid channels, severely impact Ukraine's foreign exchange income, and weaken its long-term combat capabilities. Additionally, striking key infrastructure in Ukraine can also prompt Ukraine's allies to adjust their policies towards Ukraine, giving Russia more leverage in negotiations.

Little Change in the Battlefield Situation

Many experts predict that both Russia and Ukraine will continue to conduct long-range strikes to disrupt each other's logistics supply systems and key infrastructure, depleting each other's combat capabilities and fighting spirit. However, this strategy may extend the impact of the war to various aspects of the socio-economic landscape, causing both sides to continuously deplete national strength amid the risk of escalating conflict.

Ukrainian media analysis points out that the newly appointed Ukrainian acting Defense Minister Yevgeny Hmara has rich experience in special operations behind enemy lines and cross-border long-range strikes. This personnel change signifies that the Ukrainian military has shifted from a previous focus on "military-industrial digital reform" to "combat-oriented long-range deep strikes." In addition, the Ukrainian military has established a long-range strike command to coordinate drone, cruise missile, and ballistic missile forces, striving for systematic and sustained strikes on deep Russian targets.

For Russia, Russian military expert Yuri Knutov believes that the Russian military's upcoming long-range strike operations will continue to focus on Ukraine's military production and logistics systems to further weaken Ukraine's weapon production and replenishment capabilities, as well as disrupt the Ukrainian military's logistical support and sustained combat capabilities.

Chen Yu pointed out that the mutual strikes on each other's rear areas will not change the overall situation of the conflict in the short term. After years of attrition, both Russia and Ukraine's economic capabilities, military mobilization capabilities, and weapon production capabilities have been significantly impacted, and rashly escalating the war will bring new risks to both sides, making it difficult for Russia and Ukraine to break through the current confrontation model.