Japan conducts its first overseas launch of anti-ship missiles since World War II at Balikatan 2026 — A new equation for Northeast Asian security

On May 6, 2026, at 10:30 AM, two Type 88 Surface-to-Ship Missiles (SSM-1) were launched from the coast of Ilocos Norte in northwestern Luzon, Philippines. The retired Philippine Navy corvette "BRP Quezon (PS-70)," positioned about 75 kilometers offshore, was hit approximately six minutes after the launch and subsequently sank at sea. This series of events was merely a part of the multinational joint exercise "Balikatan 2026," but it marked a significant milestone in Japan's defense history, being the first offensive missile launch from foreign territory in 81 years since 1945, representing a breakthrough in post-war security policy.

Ilocos Norte, where the exercise took place, is strategically located about 400 kilometers south of Taiwan across the Luzon Strait, directly overlooking a crucial maritime corridor connecting the South China Sea and the western Pacific. Control of this strait is a core element of the Japan-U.S.-Philippines joint defense plan, limiting the expansion of the Chinese Navy from the South China Sea to the western Pacific east of Taiwan. The launch of the Type 88 Surface-to-Ship Missiles was conducted not merely as a shooting exercise but as a core component of an anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) scenario aimed at preventing the movement of hostile naval forces. A multinational coastal firing network was established, coordinating with the U.S. Marine Corps' NMESIS (Naval Mobile Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System) launchers, the U.S. Army's HIMARS rocket artillery, and the Philippine military's C-Star anti-ship missiles, all dispersed in northern Luzon.

The Type 88 Surface-to-Ship Missile system is a domestically developed cruise missile by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, officially deployed to the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force in 1988. It is approximately 5.08 meters long, with a diameter of 350 millimeters and a launch weight of about 660 kilograms, including a 225-kilogram high-performance explosive warhead. After launch acceleration by a solid-fuel booster, it transitions to cruise flight powered by a turbojet engine, with a range estimated between 150 to 200 kilometers. It employs inertial navigation for mid-course guidance and active radar homing for terminal guidance, flying at sea-skimming altitudes in the terminal phase to evade detection and interception by enemy radar. The launchers are mounted on the chassis of the Mitsubishi Type 74 8×8 heavy truck, designed for dispersed operations from inland areas to enhance survivability against aerial attacks. This concept shows a high degree of affinity with the U.S. Marine Corps' recent push for Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations (EABO) and clearly demonstrates that the operational doctrines of Japan and the U.S. are converging at a practical level.

Balikatan 2026 saw participation from approximately 17,000 troops from seven countries: the Philippines, the United States, Japan, Australia, Canada, France, and New Zealand, making it the largest scale to date. About 1,400 personnel from Japan's Ground, Maritime, and Air Self-Defense Forces were dispatched, including the helicopter-equipped destroyer "Ise," the transport ship "Shimikita," the escort ship "Ikazuchi," C-130H transport aircraft, and the ShinMaywa US-2 rescue amphibious aircraft. On April 27, the US-2 conducted casualty evacuation training in the South China Sea off the coast of Palawan in cooperation with the U.S. Navy's dock landing ship "Ashland (LSD-48)," demonstrating Japan's amphibious readiness capabilities reaching the front lines of the South China Sea. This was the first time since World War II that Japan dispatched combat troops to Philippine territory, made possible by the Japan-Philippines Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) that came into effect on September 11, 2025.

These movements are nothing less than the realization of Japan's National Security Strategy (NSS), which was approved by the Cabinet in December 2022. The NSS explicitly states that Japan faces the "most severe security environment since the end of World War II," placing China and North Korea at the center of threat assessments and expanding Japan's defense focus from territorial defense to "building deterrence in the Indo-Pacific." The defense budget for fiscal year 2026 reached a record high of approximately 8.9 trillion yen (about 58 billion dollars), marking the twelfth consecutive year of increases. This budget is on track to achieve the goal of 2% of GDP ahead of the initially planned fiscal year 2027, including significant investments in the procurement of the long-range Type 12 Surface-to-Ship Guided Missile, trial operations of the MQ-9B SeaGuardian unmanned reconnaissance aircraft, and the multi-layered coastal defense network concept "SHIELD," which integrates unmanned platforms in air, surface, and underwater domains.

At the same time, under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan is accelerating the relaxation of export regulations on defense equipment. In May 2026, following Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' order for three improved Mogami-class frigates for Australia, New Zealand also expressed interest in the same class of ships, and negotiations are ongoing with the Philippines for the transfer of retired escort ships. Japan's defense industry, which has historically relied on a single customer (the Self-Defense Forces), is now attempting to enter the international market. However, experts widely assess that the lack of international marketing experience and issues with cost competitiveness remain significant challenges, making it realistic for the time being to focus on high-tech niche areas for "reliable allied nations."

The security environment in Northeast Asia is further complicated by North Korea's provocative actions. Since the beginning of 2026, North Korea has already conducted its seventh ballistic missile launch, firing five new short-range ballistic missiles "Hwasong-11Ra" equipped with cluster warheads toward the Sea of Japan on April 19. The flight distance was approximately 145 kilometers, and according to the South Korean military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, all missiles landed in waters east of the Korean Peninsula. North Korea's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) announced on April 20 that it was an experiment to verify "high-density strike capability and high-precision strike capability to dominate specific target areas," reporting that Chairman Kim Jong-un expressed "great satisfaction." Additionally, on April 7-8, tests were conducted for different types of missiles equipped with cluster warheads, making it clear that North Korea is hastening the operational deployment of cluster munitions, which are internationally banned due to their inhumane nature.

Furthermore, IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) Director General Rafael Grossi revealed in a press conference in Seoul on April 15 that there has been a "rapid increase in the operation" of the 5-megawatt reactor in Yongbyon, the start of operations of light-water reactors, and the confirmation of the construction of a new uranium enrichment facility, indicating that North Korea's nuclear warhead production capacity has reached a "dozens of warheads" scale. Prior to this, in March, South Korea's Minister of Unification Jeong Dong-young mentioned in the National Assembly that, in addition to Yongbyon, an unconfirmed uranium enrichment facility is also operational in Kumgang, leading to a situation where the U.S. has had to impose some restrictions on information sharing.

In this multi-layered threat environment, Japan's security policy is clearly undergoing a shift from "deterrence to readiness." The forward deployment of defense posture along the first island chain, stretching from the southwestern islands to the Philippines and further into the South China Sea, is shifting the focus from mere deterrence to the actual construction of operational capabilities. The overseas first launch of the Type 88 Surface-to-Ship Missiles during Balikatan 2026 should be recorded as a symbolic event and a potential turning point that could fundamentally alter the military balance in East Asia. Moving forward, determining whether the planned review of the National Security Strategy by the end of 2026 and the subsequent updates to specific force development plans will further accelerate this historical trajectory will be the most critical issue in Northeast Asia security analysis.