Japan's Desire to Significantly Increase Defense Spending Draws Criticism

Reference News Network reported on June 7 According to Japan's Asahi Shimbun on June 5, regarding the three security-related documents that the Japanese government plans to revise within this year, the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) Policy Research Council approved a draft proposal on the 4th to be submitted to the government. The draft is expected to be submitted to the Cabinet Council for deliberation on the 9th and to the Prime Minister's residence within June.

The draft states that Japan "should ensure necessary budget support to achieve a transformation in defense capabilities within five years."

The draft also emphasizes the need to address "new types of warfare" that utilize technologies such as unmanned equipment and artificial intelligence.

According to Japan's Mainichi Shimbun on June 5, even in order to adapt to the changing security environment by reassessing defense capabilities, Japan must not fall into the trap of prioritizing "increased defense spending."

In response to the government's plan to revise the three security documents by the end of the year, the LDP has compiled relevant proposals. The proposals clearly call for strengthening defense capabilities and ensuring corresponding budget support, while also mentioning the necessity of increasing defense spending.

On the battlefields of Ukraine and Iran, drones are widely used for attack and reconnaissance, and artificial intelligence is also used for intelligence analysis. The "transformation of defense capabilities" proposed by the LDP is aimed at adapting to these "new types of warfare."

That said, Japan's defense spending is already rapidly expanding.

The three security documents revised and passed in 2022 clearly state that Japan should possess "counterstrike capabilities," meaning the ability to attack enemy bases. Measures such as deploying long-range missiles are driving up the total budget.

The original plan was to abandon the guideline of keeping defense spending at less than 1% of GDP and instead aim to increase the relevant budget to 2% by the fiscal year 2027; however, the government under Prime Minister Kishi Sanae has already achieved this goal two years early, within the fiscal year 2025.

At the same time, the United States is also continuously exerting pressure, demanding that Japan further increase defense spending. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue, called on allies to raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP.

Although the LDP's proposal does not specify a concrete numerical target for defense spending, it is expected that the government will determine this figure during the upcoming policy revision process. If defense spending for the fiscal year 2026 reaches 3.5% of GDP, it could mean a total increase to 240 trillion yen (approximately $1.5 billion), far exceeding the 110 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2025.

As the nature of warfare changes, the priority of different military equipment will inevitably change. However, changes in the security environment do not mean that defense spending must be immediately increased.

The issue of funding sources cannot be ignored either. In order to raise spending to 2% of GDP, the government has already increased corporate taxes and tobacco taxes, and income tax will also be substantially raised starting next January. It is not easy to make the public understand and accept further tax increases.

If the funding gap is filled by issuing more government bonds, it will only exacerbate the deterioration of public finances and shift the burden to future generations.

Blindly expanding defense capabilities without regard to the country's capacity may ultimately impact the stability of people's lives. What Japan needs is a comprehensive strategy, including diplomatic efforts aimed at easing regional tensions.

Japan's Tokyo Shimbun reported on June 5 that on the 4th, the anti-war peace organization "Peace Proposal Advisory Council" issued a statement titled "Building Security Without Reliance on Weapons." This group consists of 19 members, including experts in constitutional and international politics. In light of the Japanese government's plan to revise the three security documents this year, the group advocates placing "non-military" measures at the core of policy.

The statement warns that the government is continuously strengthening surveillance of citizens and attempting to forcibly instill "patriotism" in them. With the revision of the three security documents, this trend may further intensify. The statement points out that the strengthening of defense forces will "exacerbate regional tensions and lead to more turbulent international relations."

In light of Prime Minister Kishi Sanae's remarks regarding Taiwan in the Diet, which have led to a cooling of Japan-China relations, the "Peace Proposal Advisory Council" urged the government to promote the improvement of Japan-China relations in its statement. Regarding the "new types of warfare" utilizing artificial intelligence and drones, the statement points out that there is a "risk of unprecedented inhumane acts and violations of human rights," and calls on the government to strengthen regulation of the military application of advanced technologies. (Translated by Ma Xiaoyun and Liu Lin)