Media: Israeli Military Leaders Admit Underestimating Hezbollah's Strength, Believe Iranian Regime Remains Stable

Source: Global Times
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Xinhua News Agency, Jerusalem, April 4 (Reporters Pang Xinyi and Wang Zhuolun) A recording broadcast by Israel's Channel 12 on the evening of April 4 shows that an Israeli military general admitted that the Israeli military underestimated the strength of Hezbollah and believes that the Iranian regime remains stable, and may ultimately need to reach "some kind of agreement" with Iran.

The television station aired several segments of a recording of Israel Defense Forces Northern Command Commander Rafi Milo's meeting with representatives of the residents of the northern collective community of Misgav Am on March 31. The report stated that the atmosphere during the meeting was "tense," and Milo apologized for the death of a local resident who was mistakenly hit by Israeli military fire.

Milo stated that there is a "gap" between the Israeli military's assessment of the losses Hezbollah would incur during the IDF's "Northern Arrow" operation in the second half of 2024 and Hezbollah's actual demonstrated combat capabilities in the current conflict. Although Hezbollah has "suffered heavy losses," its combat capabilities still "concern the Israeli military." Hezbollah still has the ability to launch a large number of rockets, most of which are aimed at the Israeli military.

In another segment of the recording, Milo said he believes that the conflict between Israel and the United States and Iran will not end with a "regime change." Iran's "regime, although experiencing turmoil, seems to remain stable. Perhaps ultimately some kind of agreement will need to be reached."

Channel 12 also reported that an Israeli Air Force intelligence officer stated that before the conflict began, the Israeli military assessed that Iran had about 2,500 ballistic missiles. After accounting for launch consumption and destruction from U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, Iran currently has more than 1,000 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel.

Classification
Region
West Asia
Analytical Domain
Strategic
Primary Category / Secondary Categories
Strategic Assessment / Military Operations
SALUTE Report
Size
Approximately 2500 ballistic missiles, with over 1000 capable of reaching Israel
Activity
Israeli military acknowledges underestimating Hezbollah's capabilities and assesses the stability of the Iranian regime
Location
Israel · Lebanon
Unit
Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), Hezbollah
Time
March 31, 2024
Equipment
ballistic missiles
Summary

An Israeli military leader acknowledged underestimating Hezbollah's capabilities during a meeting with local residents in Israel on March 31, 2024. He expressed concerns about Hezbollah's ability to launch rockets at Israeli forces and assessed that the Iranian regime remains stable despite ongoing turmoil. The leader suggested that a potential agreement with Iran may be necessary in the future.

Key Facts
  • An Israeli military leader admitted to underestimating Hezbollah's strength.
  • Hezbollah is still capable of launching a significant number of rockets at Israeli forces.
  • The Iranian regime is perceived as stable despite internal turmoil.
  • Israeli assessments indicate Iran has over 1000 ballistic missiles capable of reaching Israel.