Munich Security Conference 2026: The Ukraine War and Transatlantic Rift Become Core Issues

[Munich News] The 62nd Munich Security Conference (Munich Security Conference, MSC) will be held from February 13 to 15, 2026, at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof and Rosewood Munich. At a time when the global order is facing a fundamental turning point, this conference will bring together nearly 50 heads of state and government leaders, over 450 senior decision-makers, to discuss a series of urgent international security challenges, from the Ukraine war to Indo-Pacific security, from European defense autonomy to the transatlantic relationship crisis.

Unprecedented Attendance and Agenda Setting

MSC Chairman Ambassador Wolfgang Ischinger stated before the conference: "The Munich Security Conference 2026 will once again become an important platform for dialogue on key global security policy issues." Important confirmed attendees include:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — Expected to once again call for the establishment of European armed forces and seek stronger security guarantees
• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz — Leading a large delegation from the German federal government
• NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg
• President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen
• President of the European Council Charles Michel
• United Nations Secretary General António Guterres
• Foreign ministers, defense ministers, and senior officials from Europe, North America, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific region

The core topics of this conference include: European security and defense, the future of transatlantic relations, the revival of multilateralism, visions of global order competition, regional conflicts, and the security implications of technological advancements.

The Ukraine War: A Survival Challenge for Europe

The Ukraine war will undoubtedly be the most central topic at MSC 2026. This year, the conference has established a dedicated "Ukraine House" for the first time, highlighting the decisive significance of this conflict for the European security architecture.

Trump's "28-Point Peace Plan" Sparks Controversy

The 28-point Ukraine-Russia peace plan proposed by the new U.S. government has become a focal point of attention. However, the policy signals from the Trump administration have been chaotic: from initially demanding Ukraine cede territory in exchange for a ceasefire, to later claiming support for Ukraine to reclaim all lost territory, to hinting at a possible reduction in military aid to Ukraine. Even more concerning for European allies is U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth's suggestion at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting in November 2025 that the U.S. might suspend intelligence sharing with Ukraine, a move seen as a significant blow to Ukraine's combat capabilities.

Europe's "Paris Declaration" and Security Assurance Commitments

In the face of U.S. policy uncertainty, European countries issued the "Paris Declaration" led by France on January 6, 2026, committing to provide "strong and lasting security guarantees" for Ukraine. The establishment of this "Coalition of the Willing" marks Europe's attempt to take a more autonomous stance on the Ukraine issue.

According to data from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, by December 2025, European aid to Ukraine had exceeded that of the U.S. However, the key question remains: does Europe have the capability to help Ukraine withstand Russian aggression without U.S. intelligence support and long-range strike weapons?

Russia's Hybrid Warfare and Nuclear Threats

The Munich Security Report 2026 has the theme "Under Destruction," analyzing in detail the scale of Russia's destructive actions against critical infrastructure in Europe. The report points out that Russia is not only launching military offensives on the Ukrainian battlefield but also conducting large-scale hybrid warfare actions across Europe, including: underwater cable sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and assassination operations.

At the same time, Russian President Putin has repeatedly hinted at the possible use of nuclear weapons, although many analysts believe this is more bluster, it still exerts serious psychological pressure on European security. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned in a speech in Berlin in December 2025: "Russia is rebuilding its military power, threatening the security of its neighbors."

Transatlantic Relations: From Partners to Competitors?

Trump's second term poses unprecedented challenges to transatlantic relations. MSC 2026 will have to confront a fundamental question: can the U.S.-European alliance maintain its traditional unity?

5% GDP Defense Spending Requirement and European Pushback

The Trump administration's demand for NATO member states to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP far exceeds the current target of 2%. For many European countries, this means needing to increase military spending by tens of billions of euros annually, which is nearly impossible in the context of sluggish economic growth.

According to NATO data, by 2025, 23 NATO member countries had already reached the 2% GDP defense spending target, but the 5% requirement would plunge most countries into financial distress. Although Germany passed a special defense fund of 100 billion euros in 2024, reaching 5% would still require significant tax increases or cuts to social welfare spending.

The Greenland Crisis and the Threat to European Sovereignty

Trump's comments about annexing Greenland sparked a strong backlash from Denmark and the entire European continent. European leaders, including French President Macron, issued a joint statement on January 6, 2026, warning the U.S. not to interfere in European affairs. The Danish intelligence agency even listed the U.S. as a potential national security threat.

European Council President António Costa warned the U.S. in December 2025 "not to interfere in European internal affairs," a statement that is extremely rare since the end of the Cold War. The Trump administration's threats regarding Venezuela's new leadership and territorial claims over Greenland have made European allies feel that the U.S. is shifting from a traditional ally to a potential threat.

Trade Wars and Military Procurement Pressure

The Trump administration threatened to impose tariffs on European goods while demanding that European countries purchase "hundreds of billions" worth of U.S. weapons. This "transactional diplomacy" has sparked strong dissatisfaction in Europe. Analysts point out that Europe's dependence on U.S. arms sales is becoming a strategic weakness.

According to research by the Bruegel think tank, European countries have significantly increased their procurement of U.S. weapon systems in recent years, including F-35 fighter jets, Patriot missile systems, CH-47 transport helicopters, and more. However, this dependence puts Europe at a disadvantage in negotiations with the U.S. and undermines the competitiveness of the European defense industry.

European Defense Autonomy: From Slogan to Reality

In the face of U.S. policy uncertainty, European leaders are increasingly recognizing the need to enhance their own defense capabilities and strategic autonomy. MSC 2026 will witness new developments on this issue.

Defense Industry Integration and "European Manufacturing"

The European Commission's "Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030", released in October 2025, proposes that Europe must achieve significant integration and capacity enhancement of its defense industry by 2030. The report identifies three major challenges facing the European defense industry:

1. Fragmentation: 27 member states maintain independent defense industrial bases, leading to redundant investments and inefficiencies
2. Dependence on the U.S.: Critical weapon systems and components are heavily reliant on U.S. supplies
3. Insufficient capacity: Unable to meet the enormous demand for ammunition and equipment arising from the Ukraine war

Andrius Kubilius, the European Commissioner for Defense, emphasized in a speech in October 2025: "We must establish a truly European defense industrial base, not just procure more U.S. weapons."

Weimar Triangle+ and European Defense Vanguard

The Munich Security Report 2026 points out that the "Weimar Triangle+" consisting of France, Germany, Poland, and the UK, along with Italy's "European Group of Five," will play a key role in promoting defense industry integration, clarifying Europe's unified stance on Ukraine, and preparing for EU expansion.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned at the Brussels summit in December 2025: "Spend money today, or bleed tomorrow?" This statement reflects the urgency felt by Eastern European countries regarding the Russian threat.

Zelenskyy's Vision of "European Armed Forces"

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s call for the establishment of "Armed Forces of Europe" at the 2025 MSC sparked widespread discussion. He believes that Europe must possess military capabilities independent of the U.S. to truly ensure its own security. Although this proposal faces numerous legal and political obstacles, it reflects the deepening discussion on European strategic autonomy.

Indo-Pacific Security and China Issues

While the Ukraine war occupies a central position on the European security agenda, the security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region cannot be ignored. MSC 2026 is expected to discuss:

• The Taiwan Strait Situation: The tensions between mainland China and Taiwan and their impact on the global order
• U.S.-China Strategic Competition: Adjustments in the Trump administration's policy towards China and its impact on Europe
• Supply Chain Security: The resilience of supply chains for strategic materials such as semiconductors and critical minerals
• Indo-Pacific Security Architecture: Interactions between mechanisms like AUKUS, QUAD, and Europe

During the conference, a side event organized by the China Center for Globalization (CCG) will be held, themed "'Chain' or 'Chasm'? Global Value Chain Security and Cooperation," gathering over 30 senior participants from government, think tanks, academia, and media to discuss how to maintain the stability and security of global supply chains in the context of geopolitical competition.

Middle East Issues: The Iran Crisis and Regional Stability

Middle Eastern security has been prioritized by MSC organizers. Notably, the conference initially invited Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, but after large-scale protests erupted in Iran and were violently suppressed by the government, MSC withdrew invitations to some Iranian officials. In contrast, the exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has been invited to participate in conference-related activities.

During the conference, approximately 120,000 protesters are expected to participate in 21 protest events (February 12-16), with the largest protest against the Iranian regime expected to draw 100,000 participants, themed "Human Rights and Freedom in Iran: International Solidarity with the Iranian People."

Technological Security: Artificial Intelligence and Cyber Threats

MSC 2026 will also discuss the security challenges posed by technological advancements, including:

• Global AI Competition: The application of artificial intelligence in the military and its ethical and security implications
• Cybersecurity: State-sponsored cyberattacks and protection of critical infrastructure
• Disinformation: Deepfake technology and information warfare
• Quantum Computing: Potential threats to encryption systems

Conclusion: Europe at a Crossroads

The Munich Security Report 2026 warns that Europe is facing the danger of a "gray zone": neither fully relying on the U.S. security umbrella nor establishing a truly independent defense capability. The report states: "Continued indecision will expose Europe to the gray zone of competing powers, gradually eroding its ability to shape its own destiny."

MSC Chairman Ischinger emphasized before the conference: "The dialogue we initiated at the Munich Leaders Meeting in Washington and AlUla has already provided valuable momentum. Building on this, MSC 2026 will offer a unique opportunity to deepen strategic discussions and strengthen the cooperation needed to address today's most pressing global challenges."

For Europe, the 2026 Munich Security Conference is not just an annual meeting but a moment of strategic choice: to continue maintaining the status quo under the U.S. security umbrella or to take on greater responsibility, pay a higher price, and establish true European strategic autonomy? The speeches and interactions of European leaders such as Zelenskyy, Merz, and von der Leyen in Munich will provide important clues to this question.

(This article synthesizes information from MSC official materials, the Munich Security Report 2026, NATO data, research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, analyses from the Bruegel think tank, and other sources.)