Russian Media: Post-War Nuclear Non-Proliferation System Faces "Severe Test"

Reference News Network reported on August 11 An article titled "Active Decay: 81 Years After the Hiroshima Nuclear Explosion, the Nuclear Deterrence Mechanism is Degrading" was published on the website of the Russian newspaper "Izvestia" on August 7, authored by Alisa Voloshina. The full translation is as follows:

The global nuclear arms control system is deeply mired in crisis. After World War II, the international community established a treaty system to limit nuclear arsenals, but this system is now gradually collapsing. Experts emphasize that the achievements accumulated in the field of nuclear arms control over the past 60 years have largely been lost, and no new alternatives have been found.

The atomic bombings of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, and Nagasaki on August 9, 1945, are the only instances of nuclear weapons being used in actual combat in human history. Remembering this history is not only a respect for the victims but also a crucial element for global security in the 21st century. The treaty system built on the ruins of these two cities is now showing serious cracks. Konstantin Kosachev, Vice Chairman of the Federation Council of Russia, pointed out to "Izvestia" that more and more countries now believe that nuclear weapons may be the only means to guarantee their national sovereignty.

He said, "We see the outcome in Iraq, we see what happened to Libya after it abandoned its nuclear weapons development program, and we see what is happening in Iran now. There is no doubt that all of this poses a severe test to the nuclear non-proliferation system. Unfortunately, this system is currently in a high-risk state."

Kosachev emphasized that the five nuclear powers of the United Nations Security Council have a special responsibility for global security and for strengthening the nuclear non-proliferation system, but geopolitical differences hinder normal dialogue among countries in this area.

In February 2026, the last treaty controlling strategic nuclear arsenals between Russia and the United States, the New START Treaty, will expire. Currently, the two sides have not begun negotiations for a new treaty. It is worth noting that the actual size of the "nuclear club" has nearly doubled over the past half-century. Alexey Arbatov, an academician at the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that the achievements in nuclear arms control over the past 60 years have largely been lost, and no new alternatives have been found.

Meanwhile, the United States is formulating a new nuclear strategy to deal with both Russia and China. The New York Times reported that the Pentagon is discussing increasing the number of deployed nuclear warheads.

In Europe, France is expanding its nuclear strategy. The French Embassy in Russia confirmed to "Izvestia" that Germany will participate in French nuclear exercises for the first time this year.

The embassy stated, "To implement President Macron's statement on France's forward deterrence policy made at the Long Island base in March 2026, the Franco-German Defense and Security Council meeting announced on July 17 that Germany will participate in this year's French nuclear exercises. Germany will only use conventional armed forces for the exercise. One of the purposes of this move by France is to strengthen European strategic autonomy."

Several NATO countries are lifting restrictions on the deployment of allied nuclear weapons. Finland abolished a ban that had been in place since the 1990s in June this year through legislation, and the Lithuanian parliament is also reviewing similar bills. Both countries claim that this move is to strengthen deterrence against Russia.

Vasily Klimov, a researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, pointed out that Finland, Lithuania, and Poland hope to deploy nuclear weapons on their own territory, and France has plans to create forward-deployed forces. Currently, all of this remains at the level of political statements and has not yet materialized. However, these trends are already undermining the nuclear non-proliferation mechanism and constricting the space for nuclear arms limitation and reduction negotiations.

Klimov emphasized that as long as nuclear weapons are not in use, strategic deterrence is still functioning, but the treaty foundation that guarantees the predictability of deterrence no longer exists. Over the past decade, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and the Open Skies Treaty have successively expired, and now the New START Treaty is also coming to an end. Each of these treaty mechanisms allowed parties to understand the movements of their opponents and reduce the risk of misjudgment.

While negotiations are at a standstill, countries are updating their nuclear arsenals, and the various mechanisms that were previously used for mutual oversight have vanished. Arbatov believes that the world is heading towards an unconstrained arms race. (Translation/ Zhao Zhipeng)