F-15EX Deployment Preparation at Kadena Indicates Shift in Focus for Southwest Air Defense by 2027

On June 29, an F-15EX Eagle II that landed at Kadena Air Base was not just a demonstration flight. According to a statement from the U.S. Air Force at Kadena, this aircraft belongs to the 85th Test and Evaluation Squadron at Eglin Air Force Base in Florida and flew in alongside two F-15Es. The purpose is clear: before replacing the aging F-15C/D with the F-15EX, pilots, maintenance personnel, and mission support staff are refining operational procedures at the actual future deployment site.

The F-15EX at Kadena is a Maintenance Test and simultaneously a Signal of Deterrence

The statement emphasized that the verification of maintenance procedures, logistical requirements, and combat launch capabilities was more important than the aircraft's performance itself. This is practically crucial. While the F-15EX boasts advanced avionics, electronic warfare capabilities, and increased payload capacity, what matters in Okinawa is not the specifications but how many aircraft can be safely launched in a short time and which supply lines can sustain them.

Kadena's 67th Fighter Squadron is expected to become the first operational unit for the F-15EX. The specialized magazine The Aviationist has also mentioned that a total of 36 aircraft are expected to be deployed starting next year. However, this number cannot be confirmed solely from the official U.S. Air Force announcement, so it should be treated as a guideline for the deployment plan at this stage.

Connection to Valiant Shield 26

This visit comes right after Valiant Shield 26, which took place from June 22 to July 1 around the Mariana Islands, Guam, and Japan, at sea. According to a U.S. Navy announcement, the exercise was a multi-domain training event spanning land, sea, air, space, and cyber, and will evolve to deeply incorporate allies and partners from 2024 onwards. It is explained that this is the second time the Japan Self-Defense Forces have been significantly integrated into the planning and execution.

According to a DVIDS article on Kadena, from June 22 to 25, KC-135s and F-22s from the 90th and 27th Expeditionary Fighter Squadrons participated, training in air refueling, air defense, and data sharing and command and control between Japan and the U.S. What is visible here is not just the update of the F-15EX alone. Kadena is returning to being a hub of air power that encompasses the F-22, KC-135, F-15EX, and future unmanned systems.

The Reality of Manned-Unmanned Teaming as Demonstrated by MQ-28

The Aviationist reported, based on publicly released PACAF photos, that the F-15EX and the Australian-made MQ-28 Ghost Bat flew over the Philippine Sea during Valiant Shield 26. It is unclear whether the F-15EX directly controlled the MQ-28. This point should not be overestimated. However, the involvement of the MQ-28 in the concept demonstration of a forward arming and refueling point (FARP) for CCA at Rota Island poses new challenges for air operations in the First Island Chain.

The era of discussing air superiority solely based on the number of manned fighters is coming to an end. The questions now are where to maintain unmanned systems, where to rearm them, who will determine the rules of engagement, and through which communication channels to command them. This is not unrelated to the Japan Air Self-Defense Force. As bases are dispersed across the southwestern islands, the division of responsibilities for supply, security, and electronic protection between Japan and the U.S. is likely to become ambiguous.

Advantages for Japan and Overlooked Burdens

• The F-15EX has the potential to enhance long-range air defense and anti-ship/ground strike support from Kadena.
• Valiant Shield 26 tested data sharing and multi-domain command and control between Japan and the U.S. in practice.
• The participation of the MQ-28 indicates that experiments with unmanned capabilities within the alliance are beginning to transition to operational training.
• On the other hand, the burden of bases in Okinawa, fuel and ammunition stockpiles, and runway recovery capabilities remain vulnerable points.

In my view, the F-15EX transition at Kadena is a welcome update for Japan's defense. However, its value will be determined not by the aircraft's payload but by whether Japan and the U.S. can see the same operational picture within the first 48 hours of a crisis.

During the Cold War, Kadena was a massive parking area for forward-deployed fighters. After 2027, that alone will likely not be sufficient. As the number of F-15EXs increases, unmanned systems are added, and multi-domain exercises grow larger, what Japan will be required to provide is not just base support but the speed of joint operations that includes decision-making, damage recovery, and information security. The true weakness lies not in the number of aircraft on the runway but in the time it takes for the alliance to be able to fly again after being attacked.

Main Sources

• Kadena Air Base / DVIDS, F-15EX returns to Kadena, advances transition to next-generation airpower, June 29, 2026
• DVIDS, Kadena Air Base participates in VALIANT SHIELD 2026, June 21, 2026
• U.S. Navy, Allies come together in the Indo-Pacific: Valiant Shield 26, June 22, 2026
• The Aviationist, F-15EX Eagle II and MQ-28 Ghost Bat Fly Together During Valiant Shield 2026, July 3, 2026