The Simultaneous Attendance of Ministers Motegi and Koizumi in Munich Indicates a New Axis in Japan's Security Diplomacy

On the 14th of this month, at the Munich Security Conference, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio met with Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi and reaffirmed the "ironclad commitment" of the Japan-U.S. alliance. While this meeting was scheduled as planned, what draws the author's attention is another fact—Japan sent both its Foreign Minister and Defense Minister to Munich this time. This is the first time since 2020.

Why Were Both Ministers Present?

The Foreign Minister alone can achieve diplomatic objectives. Nevertheless, Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi unexpectedly delivered a speech and met with the German Defense Minister and NATO Secretary General. According to sources within the Ministry of Defense, the purpose was to embody the message that "security in the Indo-Pacific and the Euro-Atlantic is indivisible."

However, there is another context to this "indivisibility theory."

The Shadow of Wang Yi and the Uncertainty of Trump

At the same venue in Munich, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held successive meetings with foreign ministers from various European countries. It is apparent that he intends to exploit the U.S.-European tensions over Greenland to pull Europe away from the United States. Foreign Minister Motegi stated publicly on a panel, "Japan values not only the Japan-U.S. alliance but also multilayered cooperation with allied countries, including Europe." This should be read not as a diplomatic nicety but as a declaration of structural change.

As the predictability of the United States has decreased under the Trump administration, Japan has begun to be aware of the risks of concentrating solely on the alliance. Strengthening security cooperation with Europe is taking on the meaning of insurance. While the Takagi administration emphasizes a "strong Japan-U.S. relationship," it is also increasing diplomatic investment in Europe, which is likely a realistic calculation to achieve both.

Interpreting the "Golden Age" Statement of the Japan-U.S. Alliance

In a statement after the meeting, Secretary Rubio used the expression "golden age of bilateral relations," continuing the spirit of the Takagi-Trump summit last October. The strengthening of cooperation in economic security, countering non-market economic practices, and eliminating strategic dependencies—these agreements are indeed substantial. According to the U.S. State Department's announcement, the importance of trilateral cooperation among Japan, the U.S., and South Korea was also reaffirmed.

However, there is a side that appears to be "trying to fill the void of reality by repeating the importance." Particularly regarding Japan-U.S.-South Korea cooperation, the domestic political situation in Seoul is not always stable, and the vulnerability of one side of the triangle remains unchanged.

What the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Should Question

What concerns me is that the details of Defense Minister Koizumi's meeting with the NATO Secretary General have not been made public. As European NATO member countries intermittently strengthen their presence in the East China Sea and South China Sea, to what extent has a framework for substantial vessel cooperation and information sharing with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force been concretized? For the JMSDF, which focuses on the defense of SLOCs (Sea Lines of Communication), the depth of practical cooperation with European navies is far more important than the wording of joint statements.

Whether the speeches and meetings in Munich remain "show diplomacy" or lead to actual capability building will be answered in the frequency of future exercises and the concrete operational results of information sharing agreements—not in the beautiful words of the announced statements.