The U.S. "Reduction" of Joint Military Exercises with South Korea Exposes Policy Frustration

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing/Seoul, August 17 (Reporter Liu Pinran, Zhang Can) The South Korean and U.S. military began joint military exercises codenamed "Ulchi Freedom Guardian" on the 17th. At the same time, U.S. President Trump stated that the exercises send a "hostile signal" to North Korea, and he has requested a "significant reduction" in the scale of the exercises. He also criticized South Korea for not cooperating with the U.S. policy on Iran.

Analysts believe that Trump's announcement to adjust the scale of the exercises is not intended to ease regional tensions, but rather seeks external attention and diplomatic points. This move is a common tactic of the current U.S. government to coerce allies, revealing its frustration over being stuck in a policy deadlock regarding the Korean Peninsula and Iran.

Has the scale of the exercises not been adjusted?

"Ulchi Freedom Guardian" is an annual routine joint military exercise between South Korea and the U.S., usually held in August or September each year. According to military sources from both countries, this year's exercises will for the first time include subjects such as counter-drone operations, responses to global positioning system interference, and cyber attacks.

On August 16, Eastern Time, Trump posted on social media that he has requested the Department of Defense to "significantly reduce" the scale of the joint military exercises, stating that these exercises are "costly" and a large part of the expenses are borne by the U.S., while sending "completely inappropriate and hostile signals" to North Korea.

Trump also stated that considering his "very good relationship" with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, he is dissatisfied with the "U.S. agreeing long ago to participate in joint military exercises with South Korea." At the end of his post, Trump mentioned that he recently asked South Korea to work with the U.S. to promote "Iran's denuclearization," but was rejected by the South Korean side.

The South Korean government responded by saying that they are highly concerned about the information released by Trump and hope that the friendly relationship between the leaders of North Korea and the U.S. can develop into meaningful dialogue.

However, from the South Korean military's statements, there has been no temporary adjustment to the scale of the exercises. The South Korean Ministry of Defense stated on the 17th that the "Ulchi Freedom Guardian" joint military exercises are proceeding as planned. According to reports from the Korean News Agency, the South Korean military indicated that the U.S. has not currently made specific requests regarding adjustments to the scale of the exercises.

However, some media pointed out that the scale of the U.S.-South Korea military exercises was already determined to be reduced during the preparation phase compared to previous years. The South Korean media outlet Chosun Ilbo previously reported that the field maneuver exercises for this year's exercises will decrease from 44 items last year to 14 items this year, marking the lowest in history. Some analysts believe that if this is the so-called "reduction in exercise scale," Trump's announcement on the 16th may have been to attract attention.

Exposing dual frustration

Analysts believe that Trump's announcement to reduce the scale of the U.S.-South Korea military exercises exposes his frustration over being stuck in a deadlock regarding policies towards North Korea and Iran.

In terms of North Korea policy, Trump has always viewed his "good personal relationship" with Kim Jong-un established during his first presidential term as a significant diplomatic achievement. After starting his second term, Trump has repeatedly stated that he has a good relationship with Kim Jong-un and is willing to meet with him again.

However, North Korea has not responded positively to this and has not adjusted its security policy or stance towards the U.S. In February of this year, Kim Jong-un clearly stated that North Korea insists on a "defensive self-reliance route centered on nuclear power" and pointed out that the expansion and cross-border military activities of the U.S.-led aggressive group seriously threaten the security of the Korean Peninsula and the region. In June, Kim Jong-un stated that various actions by the U.S. and South Korea this year have severely worsened the situation on the peninsula, and North Korea will further strengthen its defense capabilities.

Some analysts believe that Trump's announcement to reduce the scale of the U.S.-South Korea military exercises is more like a unilateral gesture of goodwill towards North Korea, which instead exposes the U.S.'s sense of powerlessness and anxiety in making progress on the peninsula issue. Other media believe that Trump is extending an "olive branch" to North Korea, attempting to elicit a positive response from them and achieve diplomatic results to benefit the Republican Party's midterm election prospects.

In terms of Iran policy, Trump hopes that after the U.S. and Iran sign a memorandum of understanding, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz can be restored, creating conditions for subsequent resolution of issues such as Iran's nuclear program. The 60-day negotiation window for the memorandum of understanding expires on the 17th, yet the U.S. is currently in a passive situation of being "unable to act or negotiate" regarding the Iran issue.

Public opinion believes that Trump's criticism of South Korea regarding the Iran issue in the aforementioned post is not only an expression of dissatisfaction with South Korea's previous lack of support for the U.S.-led escort plan in the Strait of Hormuz but also a way to vent frustration towards South Korea amid the "no war, no peace" deadlock between the U.S. and Iran affecting the Republican Party's midterm election prospects.

Coercing allies is the norm

After Trump made the aforementioned post, many U.S. media outlets used terms like "highly controversial" in their reports. However, looking back at the past actions of the Trump administration, commodifying security guarantees for allies has become a common tactic of its "coercive diplomacy," aimed at forcing allies to compromise on issues such as military spending, security policies, and even trade tariffs.

During Trump's first presidential term, the U.S. side made exorbitant demands in negotiations over the Special Measures Agreement for Defense Cost Sharing for U.S. troops stationed in South Korea, proposing to significantly increase South Korea's share of costs to nearly $5 billion, and repeatedly pressured South Korea privately and publicly by threatening to "consider reducing or withdrawing U.S. troops stationed in South Korea."

Trump has also repeatedly threatened to withdraw from NATO over European allies' "insufficient military spending," and even "encouraged" Russia to take action against those allies who "do not meet military spending standards."

In early May of this year, Trump announced plans to withdraw about 5,000 U.S. troops from Germany due to dissatisfaction with German Chancellor Merkel's comments about "the U.S. being humiliated by Iran." During his first presidential term in 2020, Trump also threatened to reduce U.S. troops stationed in Germany due to Germany's failure to meet defense budget standards and its insistence on advancing the "Nord Stream 2" natural gas pipeline project with Russia.

Additionally, to obtain mineral resources from Ukraine, Trump pressured Ukraine to sign mineral agreements by suspending military aid and halting intelligence sharing. U.S. Congressman Gregory Meeks bluntly stated that this was "extortion" against Ukraine.

Many analysts are no longer surprised by Trump's coercive actions against allies. Drake Grossman, a senior fellow at the New America Security Center, said, "This matter (reducing the scale of U.S.-South Korea military exercises) is indeed outrageous, but to be honest, I don't understand who would still be surprised by this today."

Analysts point out that the Trump administration repeatedly uses military presence and military exercises as coercive tools against allies, and such an alliance system is bound to gradually collapse due to the continuous loss of trust.