Think Tank: Six Reasons for the U.S. Military's Ammunition Shortage

Reference News Network reported on August 5 The website of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published an article titled "Six Major Causes of U.S. Military Ammunition Shortages" on July 31, authored by Mark Cancian and Chris Parker. The full text is translated as follows:

The shortage of critical ammunition in the United States has become a national discussion topic and an important factor influencing presidential decision-making. The consumption of ammunition during the Iran War is indeed a significant reason for this issue, but it is not the only reason. Other factors at the strategic, military-industrial, and institutional levels have also contributed to the shortage of ammunition stocks.

1. The Iran War is a Major Driving Factor

The CSIS has quantified the impact of this war on the extensive use of seven types of ammunition against Iran, as well as various types of ammunition that would be used in potential conflicts. These munitions are primarily divided into two categories: missile defense munitions and long-range ground attack munitions.

The U.S. has consumed half of its stock of three types of missiles from the aforementioned munitions—“Patriot,” “THAAD,” and “Precision Strike Missile” (PrSM)—and one-third of the remaining missile stock, including “Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile” (JASSM), “Standard”-2/3/6, and “Tomahawk.” While the remaining stock can handle any potential scenarios in the Iran War, the risk comes from potential future wars.

2. Post-Cold War Strategy Reduced Ammunition Demand

During the Cold War, the U.S. faced a superpower competitor, the Soviet Union, and thus required a large stockpile of ammunition to address potential conflicts. After the Cold War, strategic and military requirements changed. The U.S. no longer prepared for great power wars but instead for two limited regional conflicts. Such wars were expected to last relatively short periods, significantly reducing the required ammunition. Consequently, ammunition procurement volumes also decreased sharply.

3. Military Industry Adapted to Efficient Production in Peacetime, Unable to Rapidly Expand Production

After the Cold War, the Department of Defense realized that the reduction in post-Cold War budgets could not support the existing large-scale military-industrial base, leading to a contraction of the entire military-industrial system. Under the influence of this strategic change, the military industry restructured itself to operate efficiently at peacetime production levels.

Maintaining surge production capacity was deemed unnecessary and potentially wasteful of resources. As a result, when the Department of Defense decided in 2022 to rapidly increase some production capacity, there was almost no spare capacity available.

4. Ammunition Production is at a Disadvantage in Pentagon Budget Allocation

Regardless of the size of the defense budget, each military branch must make trade-offs. In procurement, they face the choice between purchasing ammunition or weapon platforms such as aircraft, armored vehicles, and warships. The advantage of weapon platforms is their service life of up to 30 years and high visibility, which helps to form deterrence. Once ammunition is produced, it is stored in warehouses and only retrieved in the event of war or when it reaches the end of its service life. Therefore, ammunition procurement funds are often diverted to meet higher-priority projects.

5. Recent Wars Have Consumed Stockpiles

The amount of high-end ammunition consumed in several wars conducted by the U.S. in the past five years has exceeded the consumption levels during the early 21st century's counter-terrorism wars.

The Biden administration used hundreds of “Standard”-2/3/6 shipborne interceptors to counter Houthi forces, and the consumption of these expensive interceptors only decreased after the Navy mastered the use of cheaper air-to-air missiles and shipborne air defense weapons to shoot down Houthi drones and missiles.

During the clashes between Iran and Israel in April and October 2024, the U.S. deployed more sea-based and land-based interceptors to respond to Iranian strikes. In the “12-Day War” during Trump's second term, the U.S. military launched approximately 150 “THAAD” interceptors.

The conflicts in the Middle East have also consumed many long-range strike munitions. The Biden administration launched at least 135 “Tomahawk” missiles against Houthi forces.

6. The Impact of Military Aid to Ukraine

U.S. government officials have consistently viewed the weapon deliveries to Ukraine as a reason for the depletion of U.S. ammunition stocks. The U.S. has indeed provided a large amount of military equipment to Ukraine, including weapons, ammunition, and supplies. The Department of Defense's military aid report to Ukraine lists 102 items with a total value of up to $85 billion, the vast majority of which are related to ground combat.

The problem facing the U.S. is whether it is worth taking on the future war risks associated with the decline in ammunition stocks for the benefits gained from the current war.

The immediate issue is not funding, but time. The ammunition being delivered at this stage reflects appropriations from before the fiscal year 2024, as it takes 2 to 4 years to deliver after contracts for ammunition are signed.

Given time, production will meet demand, but that will be years in the future. Before that, there will be a fragile window of time. (Translation/ Cao Weiguo)