War risks continue to rise! U.S. military heavily gathers in the Middle East, "largest scale in decades"

[Global Times Special Correspondent Chen Yang] As the scale of U.S. military forces gathering around Iran continues to grow, external analysis suggests that the likelihood of U.S. President Trump taking action against Iran is also increasing day by day. From the successive convergence of stealth fighters, early warning aircraft, and refueling planes in the air, to the arrival of two aircraft carrier strike groups at sea, the U.S. military has completed "the largest military buildup in decades" in the Middle East. An analysis published by Bloomberg on the 24th, authored by former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Stavridis, states that the U.S. military is prepared to take military action against Iran.

Airborne Deployment of Various Aircraft

The New York Times reported on the 22nd that Trump is increasingly inclined to launch the first round of strikes within the next few days. The range of potential targets being considered by the U.S. is broad, covering the headquarters of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, various nuclear facilities, and ballistic missile programs. Only if the first round of strikes is "ineffective" will a larger-scale military attack be considered in the coming months.

This also means that the Pentagon is planning the first round of strikes against Iran primarily through airstrikes, with U.S. military aircraft typically led by stealth fighters. Similar to last year's "Midnight Hammer" operation, which targeted Iranian nuclear facilities, the U.S. B-2 stealth strategic bombers can launch long-range strikes from the U.S. mainland, maximizing the element of surprise. Another option for the B-2 bombers is to use the Diego Garcia base deep in the Indian Ocean as a launch point, which is closer to Iran and can reduce the number of aerial refueling needed for long-range missions; however, the UK has currently stated it will not allow the use of the island for airstrikes against Iran. Nevertheless, the U.S. website "The Drive" believes that the UK's stance may change under U.S. pressure in the future.

Meanwhile, the U.S. F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters, which are tasked with escort and other attack missions, are limited by their range and will need to launch from air force bases in Gulf countries surrounding Iran. Previously, the U.S. Air Force had deployed a large number of advanced fighter jets to the Middle East, such as the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, located about 100 kilometers northeast of the Jordanian capital, Amman, which is one of the main U.S. bases in the region. Satellite images show that this air base has deployed over 60 U.S. military aircraft, including F-35 stealth fighters, F-15E strike fighters, and F-16 fighters, which is about three times the usual number of aircraft stationed there. At the same time, the U.S. Military Observation Magazine reported on the 23rd that at least two batches of F-22 stealth fighters have also previously arrived in the Middle East, preparing to participate in strikes against Iran.

"The Drive" believes that last year's "Midnight Hammer" operation primarily relied on B-2 bombers and stealth fighters like the F-22 and F-35, while non-stealth fighters provided support in the surrounding area. However, "in contrast, launching new airstrikes against Iran will require the U.S. military to pay a higher price to breach Iran's air defense systems, likely necessitating more frequent use of fourth-generation non-stealth fighters," which would require cover from electronic warfare aircraft. Currently, the U.S. Navy's EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft have been deployed, and a large number of F-16CJ fighters have also been dispatched from the U.S. mainland to the Middle East. Observers have noted that each F-16CJ fighter is equipped with the "Angry Cat" electronic warfare pod, a new type of electronic warfare system that helps suppress air defense threats, and the U.S. military is preparing to use it in actual combat for the first time during airstrikes against Iran.

Additionally, to ensure the safety and order of large-scale airstrike operations, the U.S. Air Force has also mobilized a large number of early warning and refueling aircraft to the Middle East. Currently, the U.S. Air Force has sent 6 of its 16 E-3 Sentry early warning aircraft to European bases, accounting for about 40% of the total number of these aircraft. Another essential piece of equipment supporting the U.S. military's large-scale airstrike operations is the aerial refueling aircraft, which can ensure that U.S. fighter jets have extended loitering time in the airspace around Iran. Previously, U.S. media reported that the military had gathered over 85 refueling aircraft and 170 transport aircraft in the Middle East and Europe.

Dual Carrier Strike from North and South

The New York Times reported that the U.S. Navy's newest and largest aircraft carrier strike group, the USS Ford, passed through the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean on the 20th and has now arrived at Souda Bay on the Greek island of Crete. Photos published by Reuters show that this supercarrier docked at a Greek port on the 23rd, likely for refueling and logistical support. The carrier and its three escort ships will next pass through the Eastern Mediterranean and the Suez Canal to the Persian Gulf region, covering a distance of about 1,650 nautical miles, which will take approximately two days at a sustained speed of 30 knots. The carrier's air wing includes Super Hornet fighter jets, Growler electronic attack aircraft, and E-2D early warning aircraft, but it does not carry the crucial F-35C stealth fighters, so it may not be involved in the first round of airstrikes against Iran.

Meanwhile, closer to southern Iran in the Arabian Sea, the U.S. Navy's USS Lincoln carrier strike group continues to patrol nearby waters. This carrier strike group is equipped with a more complete air strike capability, including F-35C stealth fighters, and it is speculated that they may coordinate with U.S. Air Force aircraft to participate in airstrike missions against Iran.

Relevant statistics show that the total number of aircraft assembled by the U.S. Air and Naval Forces in the Middle East has exceeded 270, capable of "conducting approximately 800 airstrikes daily." The Wall Street Journal stated that this is "the largest aerial force the U.S. has assembled in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War." Robert Pep, a security affairs expert at the University of Chicago, analyzed: "This is equivalent to 40% to 50% of the U.S. deployable air power globally." He stated, "The U.S. has never before deployed such a large force around a potential enemy without launching an attack."

In addition to air power, the U.S. Navy also has more than a dozen Burke-class destroyers and an unspecified number of underwater nuclear submarines in the region, including escort ships from the two carrier strike groups. The "Tomahawk" cruise missiles they carry may also be used in airstrike operations against Iran.

Some Gulf Countries Say No

According to the website of France International Radio, in the face of the U.S. military's large-scale presence, Iran has strengthened underground defenses near its nuclear facilities while attempting to enhance its offensive capabilities, repairing the ballistic missile launch site that was destroyed by Israeli airstrikes last June and delivering more drones to its armed forces. Due to concerns about potential retaliatory attacks from Iran, the U.S. military has not only intensified the deployment of more "Patriot" and "THAAD" air defense missile systems and Aegis destroyers to the Middle East but also withdrawn hundreds of U.S. soldiers from the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and several bases in Bahrain.

The Financial Times revealed on February 22 a "secret deal" reached between Iran and Russia: the two sides agreed on a €500 million deal to procure thousands of advanced portable air defense missiles. Analysts believe this indicates that Iran is no longer relying on fixed large air defense systems, marking a shift in its defense strategy. A person familiar with the deal stated that a small quantity of these systems may have already been delivered to Iran in advance.

Furthermore, U.S. airstrike operations against Iran also face other influences. For example, the USS Ford is scheduled to set sail in June 2025, with an original overseas deployment time of six months, but in October of the same year, it was redirected to the Caribbean to support operations to seize oil tankers and forcibly capture Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, which forced an extension of its deployment time. Now, in preparation for military action against Iran, its deployment time has been extended again, and it is expected that the total deployment duration will exceed 11 months, potentially setting a record for the longest deployment since the Cold War. U.S. media reports have revealed that sailors on the carrier are suffering greatly, and morale has taken a heavy hit.

"The Drive" also mentioned that the U.S. military's operations against Iran in the region are facing a situation of "insufficient bases," as some Gulf countries have stated they will not allow the U.S. military to use their bases for military actions against Iran. At the same time, the threat of short-range missile and drone attacks from Iran also limits the deployment range of these U.S. military forces.