Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow on September 18, 2026, coinciding with the start of parliamentary elections, with over 350 drones involved. The attack included strikes on a refinery in Yaroslavl and a military airfield in Rostov. Ukrainian forces aim to increase the political cost of the ongoing war for Russia, while the Russian military adapts its defenses and missile capabilities in response to these drone threats.

Dmitri VolkovFri Sep 18 2026Loading...

Russian intelligence services are actively recruiting ordinary Danes for sabotage operations against defense companies in Denmark that are aiding Ukraine. This development, highlighted by the Danish security service PET, indicates a strategic shift in Russian tactics, moving pressure from the front lines to the European rear. The operations aim to disrupt logistics and create a psychological impact on European nations involved in supporting Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovFri Sep 04 2026Loading...

On September 1, 2026, Germany closed its consulate in Bonn, attributing a drone incident on August 4 to Russia. The drone was found near a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig-Halle airport. This incident marks a significant escalation in Germany's response to Russian hybrid operations, prompting diplomatic actions and discussions of sanctions across Europe.

Dmitri VolkovWed Sep 02 2026Loading...

The 3M22 Zircon missile is assessed to have a maximum speed of 6.8 Mach and a warhead weight of 120 kilograms, indicating limitations in its capabilities. It functions as a high-speed penetration tool rather than a revolutionary weapon, with a quasi-ballistic trajectory and a range of about 1000 kilometers. Ukrainian intelligence highlights the reliance on foreign components for its production, suggesting vulnerabilities in Russia's military technology claims.

Dmitri VolkovTue Sep 01 2026Loading...

Over 113,000 Russian citizens crossed into Georgia via Upper Lars in August 2023, signaling potential preparations for mobilization. The Russian government is reportedly gathering personal data on reservists and has been denying any plans for mass mobilization. However, the failure of voluntary recruitment efforts has led to speculation about a future conscription announcement, particularly after the upcoming parliamentary elections.

Dmitri VolkovSat Aug 29 2026Loading...

The UK government authorized the transfer of classified information on SCALP missile components to Ukraine for local assembly, significantly enhancing Ukraine's military capabilities. This decision alters the dynamics of military support and operational planning against Russia, prompting a nervous reaction from Moscow. The local assembly of these missiles could enable Ukraine to conduct sustained long-range strikes, impacting Russian military logistics and operations.

Dmitri VolkovFri Aug 28 2026Loading...

Russia threatened British military targets on August 27, 2026, in response to Ukrainian attacks using British Storm Shadow missiles. This marks a significant shift in rhetoric, indicating that Moscow views Britain as a key military supplier to Ukraine. The threat serves to pressure London and signal to other European nations about the risks of military support to Ukraine, as Russia seeks to restore deterrence amid increasing Ukrainian long-range capabilities.

Dmitri VolkovThu Aug 27 2026Loading...

The UK is set to provide Ukraine with documentation for producing Storm Shadow missiles, prompting Russia to threaten British factories. This development indicates a shift in military strategy, as Russia perceives the potential for Ukraine to establish a distributed production capability. In response, Russia is likely to enhance reconnaissance and increase threats against Ukrainian industrial sites.

Dmitri VolkovTue Aug 25 2026Loading...

Russia is preparing to mobilize 300,000 new soldiers for the Donbas region by the end of 2026 in response to significant personnel losses. This move aims to maintain military pressure on the front lines while avoiding public panic associated with formal mobilization. The Kremlin's strategy reflects a need for additional infantry to sustain operations, particularly in light of ongoing losses and the challenges of maintaining troop morale and effectiveness.

Dmitri VolkovMon Aug 24 2026Loading...

Russia rejected Ukraine's proposal for a ceasefire regarding attacks on civilian vessels in the Black Sea on August 13-14, 2023. This rejection indicates that Russia considers the grain corridor a military tool rather than a humanitarian initiative, leading to a 76% drop in Ukrainian grain exports. The Russian Foreign Ministry emphasized that there are no grounds for temporary measures, reflecting a strategic approach to the ongoing conflict.

Dmitri VolkovFri Aug 14 2026Loading...

On August 12, 2026, Putin announced from the cruiser Varyag that Russia would respond symmetrically to any European attempts to seize Russian vessels, signaling a potential escalation of maritime conflict beyond the Black Sea. Ukrainian drones had previously attacked tankers in Novorossiysk, prompting U.S. intervention to stabilize oil markets. The Russian Navy is actively monitoring maritime traffic in the Asia-Pacific region.

Dmitri VolkovWed Aug 12 2026Loading...

Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov was dismissed amid discussions of military procurement, including PAC-3 missiles, on July 16, 2023. He proposed replacing military leaders to adapt to changing war dynamics. This internal conflict reflects a shift in Ukraine's military strategy, as it seeks to address the challenges posed by Russian ballistic missile tactics. The procurement process is evolving with European funding, indicating a more structured approach to defense.

Dmitri VolkovThu Jul 16 2026Loading...

The Russian Army has recruited about 195,000 contract soldiers by July 2026, falling short of its target of 409,000. Recruitment rates have decreased, leading to concerns over personnel quality and increasing combat losses, particularly in Donetsk Oblast, where Russian forces face significant casualties. The military's reliance on less qualified recruits and foreign labor indicates a shift towards coercive recruitment methods.

Dmitri VolkovWed Jul 15 2026Loading...

In July 2026, Ukraine and nine European nations announced the formation of the Integrated Anti-Ballistic Missile Coalition in Paris, aiming to enhance missile defense capabilities against Russian threats. Following this announcement, Russia launched 134 long-range drones and three guided missiles targeting Ukraine. The coalition seeks to leverage Ukraine's combat experience to develop a more cost-effective missile defense system, addressing the challenges posed by Russian ballistic missile attacks.

Dmitri VolkovTue Jul 14 2026Loading...

Russia is struggling to achieve its military objectives in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, with Ukrainian defenses significantly slowing Russian advances. The Ukrainian military reported 32,000 Russian casualties per month, while Ukraine has successfully targeted numerous Russian positions. Diplomatic efforts continue, but Russia's demands remain high despite operational challenges.

Dmitri VolkovFri Jul 10 2026Loading...

The Russian Army requires 55,000-60,000 soldiers per month to sustain its offensive operations in Donbas, as reported by an anonymous general. This figure reflects the need to compensate for ongoing losses while aiming for territorial gains by the end of 2026. The Kremlin's mobilization strategy has evolved, focusing on financial incentives rather than public mobilization, indicating a significant strain on military resources and personnel quality.

Dmitri VolkovFri Jul 10 2026Loading...

The UK announced a military aid package to Ukraine, which includes 150,000 drones and over 350 air defense missiles, to be delivered by the end of 2026. This funding is sourced from immobilized Russian assets, marking a significant shift in the conflict's dynamics. The package aims to enhance Ukraine's military capabilities and support domestic production.

Dmitri VolkovFri Jun 19 2026Loading...

Russian forces occupied only 14 additional square kilometers in Ukraine during May 2026, reflecting a drastic decline in territorial gains. From December 2025 to May 2026, they advanced just 40.64 square kilometers, compared to over 500 square kilometers in the same timeframe the previous year. The report highlights a shift in tactics towards infiltration amid increasing Ukrainian counterattacks and logistical challenges.

Dmitri VolkovWed Jun 03 2026Loading...

On May 22, 2026, an airstrike targeted the Rubicon command center in Starobilsk, resulting in at least 21 reported casualties. The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed the strike aimed at military infrastructure, while Russia claimed it hit a civilian dormitory. This incident has escalated tensions, with Russia threatening further military action against Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 26 2026Loading...

Russian General Valery Gerasimov claimed 85% control of Lyman on May 16, 2026, but this is disputed by the Institute for the Study of War, which estimates actual control at only 0.06%. Russian forces are reportedly advancing towards Shevchenkove, yet the situation in Kupiansk remains unclear. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported significant drone interceptions and personnel losses, raising concerns about the accuracy of their operational reports.

Dmitri VolkovSun May 17 2026Loading...