Analysis & Reports

Russia is projected to rebuild its military to 1.3 million troops by 2026, despite significant losses. The country is ramping up production of tanks and infantry vehicles while expanding its drone capabilities. However, it faces challenges in air power and recruitment, with a declining number of fighter jets and strategic bombers. The military's future effectiveness remains uncertain as it navigates these issues.

Russia launched a significant wave of ballistic missile attacks targeting Kyiv over the weekend, prompting Ukraine to stockpile home-built interceptors and successfully shoot down 18 of 41 missiles. In retaliation, Ukraine struck three Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea and logistics facilities, resulting in multiple casualties. Ukrainian President Zelensky called for further assistance from allies to enhance air defense capabilities.

Russian engineers modified a Mi-8 helicopter into a flying drone jammer to disrupt Ukrainian long-range strike drones' navigation signals. The system features multiple antennas and is designed for electronic warfare. This development aligns with Russia's plans to expand its Mi-8 fleet, enhancing their capabilities in electronic warfare operations.

A satellite image confirmed the destruction of a Tu-95 bomber at Engels air base in Russia on July 16, 2023, following a drone strike. This loss represents a significant reduction in Russia's long-range strike capacity, as the Tu-95 is an aging aircraft that cannot be easily replaced. The incident highlights ongoing vulnerabilities in Russia's air defense and bomber protection efforts.

Russia intercepted and destroyed 140 Ukrainian drones between 20:00 on the 18th and 08:00 on the 19th in Moscow and Belgorod Oblasts. Ukraine reported that from 18:00 on the 18th to the early morning of the 19th, Russia launched 41 missiles and 125 drones, including 10 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles, targeting Kyiv. Ukraine successfully shot down 126 targets, resulting in 1 death and 16 injuries in Kyiv.

Russia is testing a new laser system named 'Lightning' designed to counter all types of drones. The system is currently undergoing trials within the country and is intended to protect static targets such as military facilities and critical infrastructure. It features AI technology for target recognition and can operate for up to 15 minutes on battery power, with a range of 5 kilometers.

Russian forces conducted 19 cluster strikes targeting Ukrainian ports and military infrastructure on the 17th, while Ukrainian forces repelled attacks and shot down 1879 drones. Ukrainian forces also launched long-range strikes against Russian targets, including a successful attack on the Engels Air Base, damaging a Tu-95 strategic bomber. Both sides continue to engage in active military operations across multiple fronts.

The Ukrainian Security Service conducted a drone strike on a Tu-95 strategic bomber at Engels military airport in Saratov Oblast, Russia, on July 17. The bomber was severely damaged, with its tail completely detached. This operation aimed to weaken Russian military and economic capabilities, indicating that even remote military installations are no longer safe for Russian forces.

On July 17, 2023, the Ukrainian Security Service destroyed a Tu-95 bomber in Engels, Russia, approximately 800 kilometers from Ukraine. This incident highlights the ongoing degradation of Russian strategic aviation capabilities, as the Tu-95 is a rare asset that cannot be quickly replaced. The attack signifies Ukraine's effective long-range strike capabilities against Russian military infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovFri Jul 17 2026Loading...

Russia has begun modifying its Molniya attack drones by adding magnetic compasses and onboard cameras to enhance navigation capabilities, particularly in environments where satellite signals are jammed. This development, reported by Ukrainian defense advisor Serhii Beskrestnov, highlights a cost-effective approach to drone technology amidst ongoing electronic warfare. The modifications allow these drones to operate independently of GPS systems, making them more resilient against jamming tactics.

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) destroyed a Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bomber at Engels airfield in Russia in July 2025. This operation is part of Ukraine's ongoing long-range strikes against Russian military targets. The Tu-95 had been utilized by Russia for missile strikes against Ukraine, and its destruction represents a significant loss for Russia's strategic bomber fleet.

Russia has unveiled advanced military prototypes, including the T-14 tank and Su-57 fighter, but has produced only a handful due to production challenges. In contrast, it has successfully manufactured tens of thousands of cheap drones, highlighting a significant shift in its military capabilities. The T-14 and Su-57 remain largely unutilized in combat, while the Su-75 Checkmate has yet to fly.

The Admiral Nakhimov, a Kirov-class battlecruiser, is undergoing modernization to enhance its capabilities as the flagship of the Russian Northern Fleet. It features advanced weapon systems, including P-700 Granit and Kalibr missiles, and is powered by nuclear reactors. However, its effectiveness may be challenged by modern warfare tactics involving drones and missile swarms. The ship's significant size and armament raise questions about its vulnerability in contemporary naval engagements.

Ukrainian drones struck Russia's Engels air base overnight into July 16, causing explosions and a fire. The attack targeted the military airfield, which hosts strategic bombers, and was confirmed by multiple sources. Reports indicate that drones with a new design were used, and Russian air defenses were active during the incident.

Russian forces conducted strikes on Ukrainian military facilities, including drone storage and logistics centers, on the 15th. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces reported targeting a Russian Mi-28 helicopter in Belgorod and intercepting numerous Russian drones. The conflict saw 73 battles reported on the front lines that day.

Russia's Iskander-M missile system is actively being utilized in Ukraine, demonstrating advanced capabilities against air defenses. The missile can carry nuclear payloads and employs tactics to evade interception. Continuous improvements have been made based on battlefield experience, and it can coordinate with drone swarms to enhance its effectiveness. The system poses a significant threat to NATO countries due to its range and capabilities.

Russia's submarine force remains a significant threat to NATO in 2026, with 8 Borei-class submarines and ongoing modernization efforts. The fleet faces challenges, including slow production rates and operational losses, but continues to operate effectively in strategic regions like the Arctic and North Atlantic. The introduction of new capabilities, such as the Khabarovsk carrier for Poseidon torpedoes, underscores its importance in Russia's military strategy.

Ukrainian FPV drone operators from the Rarog unit struck a Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter near Vyazovoye at around 10:00, hitting the tail boom and causing it to crash. This incident highlights the growing effectiveness of drones against traditional air assets, raising concerns for NATO about the vulnerability of helicopters in combat. The Mi-28, valued at millions, was taken down by a relatively inexpensive drone, indicating a significant shift in battlefield dynamics.

Alexandra ReevesWed Jul 15 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drone operators from the Rarog unit struck a Russian Mi-28 helicopter with a FPV drone near Vyazovoye in Belgorod region around 10:00, causing it to crash. The strike targeted the helicopter's tail boom, demonstrating the effectiveness of drone warfare against heavily armored aircraft. This incident reflects a continuing trend of successful drone strikes on Russian Mi-28s by Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainian forces struck 20 Russian vessels in the Black Sea on July 15, 2023, using drone systems. The operation targeted 17 tankers, 2 liquefied gas transport ships, and 1 tugboat, marking a shift in operations from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. This action was confirmed by the Ukrainian military's social media announcement.