Analysis & Reports

The U.S. is leading efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is currently closed due to geopolitical tensions following U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran. A coalition involving the U.S., U.K., and Ukraine is being organized to ensure maritime security and prevent Iran from closing the strait again. The current ceasefire offers a narrow opportunity for diplomatic engagement and coalition building.

Iranian Supreme Leader's foreign affairs advisor, Velayati, stated that Iran and its strategic partners control the security of the Strait of Hormuz and the Malacca Strait. He also noted that the Houthi forces in Yemen control the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, warning that any provocative actions would trigger a chain reaction.

Houthi forces warned that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait may be closed if peace efforts are obstructed. On April 18, a senior Houthi official urged U.S. President Trump to cease actions that hinder peace and respect the rights of the Yemeni people. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical maritime route, is currently under Houthi control.

The Unified Force of the Alliance of Sahel States, established in December 2025 in Niamey, comprises 6,000 personnel from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, aimed at combating jihadist threats. This force marks a significant shift in regional security strategy, allowing for flexible operations across national borders. Funding is sourced from member states, and military partnerships have expanded to include various countries, notably Russia and Turkey.

Marie DuboisSat Apr 18 2026Loading...

The Sudanese civil war continues to drive instability across the Red Sea to the Sahel region, with Chad emerging as a critical hub for military support to the FSR in Darfur. Over ten million people are displaced, and significant geopolitical maneuvers are underway, including Russia's naval base negotiations in Port-Sudan and U.S. drone operations in Morocco. The situation is evolving with the withdrawal of Chadian troops from Niger, Mali, and Nigeria by April 22, 2026.

Marie DuboisFri Apr 17 2026Loading...

The U.S. Department of Defense announced a $1.5 trillion defense budget for FY27, emphasizing a $70.5 billion increase in munitions procurement due to the ongoing conflict with Iran. This budget reflects a strategic dilemma as the U.S. seeks to maintain military readiness in the Indo-Pacific while addressing depleted munitions stockpiles. Lockheed Martin has secured a $4.7 billion contract for missile production, highlighting the urgency of replenishing military resources.

Marcus ChenWed Apr 15 2026Loading...

Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi's election victory in February 2026 enables a significant shift in defense policy, with plans to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP and liberalize export controls. This marks a transition towards operational integration with the EU, enhancing cooperation in defense capabilities and industrial partnerships. Japan identifies China as a strategic challenge and aims to strengthen its military posture in the Indo-Pacific.

Iranian armed forces announced that they will not permit any import or export activities in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, and Red Sea if the U.S. continues its maritime blockade, which is making Iranian merchant ships and oil tankers unsafe.

The Houthis are poised to engage in asymmetric warfare to disrupt maritime traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea. This potential action could lead to significant economic repercussions, including spikes in oil prices. The U.S. Navy is currently blockading the Strait of Hormuz, which is part of a broader strategy to counter Iranian influence in the region. Experts suggest that the Houthis' restraint thus far may be strategic, indicating a readiness to escalate if conditions are favorable.

Houthi forces are poised to potentially engage in asymmetric warfare to disrupt maritime traffic in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea. This comes amid U.S. Navy blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to significant economic repercussions, including increased oil prices. Experts suggest that the Houthis' current restraint may be strategic, as they are seasoned fighters accustomed to prolonged conflict.

Iran is escalating pressure through its proxies in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, aiming to disrupt shipping without direct military confrontation. Iranian officials have warned that energy flows could be quickly disrupted if U.S. actions continue. The Houthis have shown readiness to act, indicating a potential for increased maritime conflict in the region.

Iran is leveraging the current ceasefire to reposition and rearm its military assets while continuing its strategy of endurance against the West. The Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb are critical maritime chokepoints under Iranian influence, impacting global oil supply. The ongoing conflict is characterized by attrition rather than conventional warfare, with Iran's military capabilities being enhanced during this pause.

The Russian Air Force operates approximately 32 to 40 Su-57 Felon fighters, which are considered inferior to Western aircraft like the F-35 and F-22 due to their lack of stealth and advanced technology. The Su-57's radar cross-section is significantly larger than that of its Western counterparts, and production delays have hindered its deployment. Recent analyses highlight the superiority of Western fighter jets in modern combat scenarios, particularly in air superiority operations.

In April 2026, the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) intensified its violent campaign against Nigerien military forces, resulting in at least 35 military personnel killed. Concurrently, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) conducted large-scale attacks in Benin, leading to casualties among both militants and soldiers. Regional military initiatives are underway, with Morocco and Mauritania enhancing their security cooperation.

Marie DuboisSun Apr 12 2026Loading...

A wargame assessment revealed that the U.S. Air Force is unprepared to defend Taiwan against a potential Chinese invasion by 2035. Conducted in April 2026, the assessment involved 60 participants and highlighted the inadequacies of current U.S. airpower. The findings indicate that without modernization and increased capabilities, the U.S. risks failing to meet its security commitments in the Western Pacific.

Abdul-Malik al-Houthi warned that Israel's ongoing aggression in Lebanon could lead to a full resumption of conflict. He stated that the Houthi forces have effectively blocked Israel and the U.S. from using the Red Sea for military purposes. Al-Houthi emphasized that successful political negotiations depend on Israel ceasing its actions against Lebanon and other regional actors.

President Trump threatened to withdraw the United States from NATO during a meeting with Secretary-General Mark Rutte on April 8, 2023, citing insufficient support from allies in the conflict with Iran. He expressed frustration over NATO's lack of assistance and called the alliance a 'paper tiger.' A 2023 law restricts the president's ability to unilaterally exit NATO, emphasizing the importance of the alliance for collective security.

The United States reassesses its air and missile defense strategies in the Indo-Pacific due to a critical shortfall in interceptor capabilities against China's extensive missile arsenal. A recent conflict highlighted the rapid depletion of U.S. interceptor stockpiles, prompting calls for enhanced coalition integration among regional partners. The 2026 National Defense Strategy aims to fortify defenses along the First Island Chain, but significant challenges remain in achieving effective collaboration and addressing cost disparities in missile defense.

Marcus ChenWed Apr 08 2026Loading...

Chinese aircraft are increasingly engaging in aggressive actions in the Indo-Pacific, particularly concerning Taiwan. The US maintains a significant advantage with its F-22 and F-35 fighters, while China continues to develop its J-20 and J-35A aircraft. Analysts predict a potential conflict involving the US and its allies due to China's military modernization and territorial ambitions.

The United States is pivoting its military strategy towards the Indo-Pacific, facing challenges in maintaining deterrence against China and logistical constraints. Recent multinational exercises, such as Sea Dragon 2026, highlight efforts to enhance regional defense cooperation. However, U.S. capabilities are under scrutiny, with projections indicating potential shortages in missile interceptors during conflict. The evolving gray zone tactics employed by China further complicate the strategic landscape, necessitating a multifaceted approach that integrates military, economic, and diplomatic efforts.

Marcus ChenWed Apr 08 2026Loading...