Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov, resulting in the closure of the maritime corridor by Russia. Over a recent eight-day period, Ukraine reportedly struck 105 vessels, including 10 tankers and 4 ferries. The attacks have raised concerns in Russia regarding their naval defense capabilities and have impacted logistics in occupied Crimea.

Ukrainian drone strikes recently killed three and wounded five in Pionersky, Moscow region. The strikes also caused a fire in Stavropol and temporarily disrupted operations at Moscow airports. Ukrainian drones flew 1,500 miles to hit an oil refinery in Omsk, marking the longest-range strike of the war. These actions are testing Russian air defenses and have led to significant operational disruptions.

Ukraine's military conducted a mass simultaneous strike using at least ten modified light aircraft to target an underground logistics hub in Armyansk, Crimea. The aircraft, converted from ultralight models, were equipped with Soviet-designed high-explosive bombs. This operation represents a significant evolution in Ukraine's military capabilities, showcasing their ability to utilize civilian technology for military purposes.

Russia has armed four of its naval vessels with the Pereyed-M electronic warfare system to counter Ukrainian drone attacks. This system, which includes the Repeynik radar unit, enhances the vessels' capabilities against small unmanned aircraft. The deployment reflects a strategic shift in response to Ukraine's extended strike campaign against Russian naval assets, particularly in light of recent successful drone strikes on Russian ships.

The U.S. Air Force developed and tested the Rusty Dagger cruise missile in record time, with 3,350 units approved for sale to Ukraine by August 2025. The missile, built by Zone 5 Technologies, was designed to meet urgent wartime needs and demonstrated unprecedented speed in its acquisition and integration into military operations. The program's rapid development allowed for combat readiness ahead of schedule, showcasing a significant shift in military procurement processes.

On July 9, 2023, Rostec announced the delivery of 2 to 4 new Su-34 and Su-30SM2 combat jets to the Russian military. This delivery comes amid significant losses, with over 60 documented losses of these aircraft types since 2022. The new jets are intended to replace those lost in the ongoing conflict with Ukraine, and the delivery was notably accepted by naval aviation crews rather than the Aerospace Forces.

On October 10, two oil storage facilities in Rostov Oblast caught fire due to drone attacks. The Krasnodar Krai command reported a fire from drone debris. Ukrainian forces intercepted 376 drones overnight, while 137 Russian drones were used in attacks on Ukraine.

The F-35 Lightning II decisively outmatches the MiG-35 Fulcrum-F in air combat, primarily due to its stealth and advanced detection capabilities. The MiG-35, while agile in close-range dogfights, is unlikely to engage effectively as it is outclassed in beyond-visual-range scenarios. With fewer than 10 MiG-35s built and over 1,100 F-35s operational, the disparity in numbers further favors the F-35.

A Russian T-90M tank was sighted on July 4, 2026, equipped with the Arena-M active protection system, suggesting a potential shift towards deployment. The system aims to enhance tank survivability against drone threats, although its effectiveness against swarming FPV drones is debated. Crews have shown distrust in the tank's protection, leading to instances of abandonment during combat.

The Komsomolsk-on-Amur plant in Russia completed 20 Su-35 jets for Iran, causing delays for the Russian Aerospace Forces as export orders take precedence. Deliveries to Russia's air force are expected to slow for the next two to three years, highlighting logistical challenges in military aircraft production amid multiple international commitments.

Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces conducted significant strikes on July 6, targeting 47 Russian military assets, including two S-400 launchers in Bryansk and Crimea. The campaign focuses on destroying critical radar systems to blind Russian air defenses, with reports indicating a high rate of attrition against these assets. Despite Russia's ability to produce launchers, the slow replacement of radars poses a challenge for their air defense capabilities.

Rostec delivered new Su-30SM2 Flanker-C and Su-34 Fullback aircraft to the Russian Aerospace Forces as part of modernization efforts amid significant losses since the invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. The Su-30SM2 features enhanced radar capabilities for standoff engagements, while the Su-34 serves as a primary strike aircraft. Open-source intelligence has documented substantial losses of these aircraft types, indicating a critical need for replacements.

Russian satellites have been interfering with GPS signals across northern Europe, Greenland, and Canada since 2019, indicating the use of electronic warfare. This interference has also affected China's Bei Dou navigation system since 2020. The U.S. government has not established backup systems for GPS, despite the growing threat from Russia, which has a history of threatening to disrupt GPS services globally.

On July 8, 2023, Russian air defense systems intercepted 415 drones during a large-scale drone attack in Rostov Oblast. Two oil tankers were damaged in Taganrog Bay, resulting in minor injuries to two individuals. The local governor warned residents to remain indoors due to the ongoing drone threat.

Azerbaijan's air force began operating JF-17 Thunder fighter jets on July 6, 2024, with two aircraft confirmed at Nasosnaya Air Base. The JF-17C Block III fighters are part of a larger procurement deal for 40 jets from Pakistan, enhancing Azerbaijan's air capabilities. The new fighters are conducting training alongside existing aircraft, indicating integration into the current fleet.

Ukrainian drones launched a large-scale attack on industrial areas near the Kama River, damaging several enterprises in Nizhnekamsk. In Kiev, a tram depot was struck, resulting in damage to 42 tram cars. Russian air defense intercepted 415 drones during the night of the 7th to the 8th, while Russian forces targeted Ukrainian military facilities, including a missile parts production site.

The U.S. Navy is developing new protective technologies for its ballistic missile submarines against threats like drones and anti-tank rockets. This includes advanced systems for detection and defense during transit to and from ports, as well as active protection for ICBM transport. The Navy aims to enhance maritime situational awareness and counter AI-driven threats.

The Soviet Navy developed the Kirov class, a 28,000-ton nuclear battlecruiser, originally intended as an 8,000-ton submarine hunter, during the 1960s to 1990s. This evolution was driven by changing military needs and the influence of Admiral Sergey Gorshkov. The Kirov class became the largest surface warship built since World War II, incorporating advanced anti-ship and air-defense capabilities.

Russia has been unable to replace the MiG-31 for over 30 years, with five successor projects failing before entering service. The MiG-31BM and MiG-31K continue to operate, launching long-range missiles, while the MiG-41 remains unprototyped. The Russian Air Force relies solely on the MiG-31, which is now the last interceptor of its kind in service.

In October 2024, a Russian Su-57 shot down its own S-70 Okhotnik drone after it lost control in Ukrainian airspace. The Russian Aerospace Forces currently operate around 30 Su-57 aircraft, which have primarily been used for standoff missile strikes. The Su-57D variant has been developed for drone control, and Algeria has begun receiving Su-57 aircraft as part of an export deal.