Analysis & Reports

The 1st Army Area Command of Thailand announced the postponement of a memorandum signing with Cambodia regarding regional issues on January 29. The decision followed discussions held at the Poipet border crossing between the 1st Army Area Command and the 5th Army Area Command of Cambodia. Further negotiations are required before the memorandum can be finalized, with both sides committed to maintaining border peace and stability.

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense criticized the DPP government for manipulating public opinion regarding cognitive warfare tactics from mainland China during a press conference on January 29. The ministry accused the DPP of attempting to sever cultural ties with the mainland and using cognitive warfare to distract from its political failures, which is believed to increase public resentment in Taiwan.

The Ministry of National Defense of China responded to military animation videos from Swedish, American, British, and Japanese companies that claimed to depict the sinking of Chinese naval vessels. The spokesperson noted that the Swedish military company has removed the videos and criticized the claims as self-indulgent, stating, 'You wish!'

China's Coast Guard and Navy conducted a humanitarian rescue operation near Huangyan Island on January 22, 2023, saving 17 Filipino crew members from a capsized Singapore-flagged cargo ship. The operation involved multiple vessels and concluded with the transfer of the rescued personnel to the Philippines on January 25, 2023. The Chinese Defense Ministry highlighted the commitment of its naval forces to uphold sovereignty and promote peace in the region.

On January 29, the Ministry of National Defense of China expressed concerns over Japan's military expansion, including the development of long-range missiles and offensive weapons. The Chinese defense spokesperson criticized Japan's actions as a threat to regional stability and emphasized the need to prevent the resurgence of militarism. This statement reflects heightened vigilance among regional nations regarding Japan's military ambitions.

On January 29, the Ministry of National Defense of China commented on the U.S. defense strategy, noting its omission of Taiwan, which signals a strategic withdrawal. The ministry emphasized that Taiwan is a domestic issue and criticized the Democratic Progressive Party's reliance on foreign support as self-deceptive.

On January 29, the Ministry of National Defense of China held a press conference where spokesperson Jiang Bin commented on the U.S. 2026 Defense Strategy. He rejected any attempts to contain China and emphasized the need for mutual respect and peaceful coexistence. Jiang urged the U.S. to stop depicting China as a military threat and to foster stable military relations.

On January 29, 2023, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense held a press conference addressing the rejection of a defense budget proposal by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). The DPP's proposal for 1.25 trillion NTD was voted down, with accusations of corruption and mismanagement of public funds directed at the party. The spokesperson warned that such actions could jeopardize Taiwan's security and accelerate the risks of conflict.

The Chinese Ministry of National Defense addressed animated videos from military-industrial companies in Sweden, the UK, the US, and Japan that falsely depict the sinking of Chinese naval vessels. The spokesperson noted that the Swedish company has removed the video and criticized the actions as self-indulgent, urging other involved parties to take appropriate actions.

The Southern Theater Command Air Force conducted impressive training exercises, showcasing their capabilities. The training drew positive reactions from netizens, highlighting its intensity and effectiveness.

The Indonesian Air Force received its first three Dassault Rafale F4-standard fighters at Roesmin Nurjadin Air Base on 23 January 2026. These aircraft will be operated by the TNI-AU’s 12th Air Squadron, enhancing the air force's combat capabilities. Indonesia has a total of 42 Rafales on order, with the first batch of three now delivered.

China is implementing a national total war strategy that mobilizes civilian and military resources to counter the United States, particularly focusing on Taiwan. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is preparing for future conflicts by integrating high-tech systems and civilian assets, with a potential move on Taiwan anticipated around 2027. The strategy emphasizes the importance of technology, infrastructure resilience, and cyber capabilities to disrupt U.S. military operations.

General Zhang Youxia was removed from the Central Military Commission in China, accompanied by the arrest of General Liu Zhenli. This upheaval within the People's Liberation Army has raised concerns about operational leadership and political loyalty. Analysts suggest that these purges may lead to a leadership void, impacting the PLA's readiness for complex military operations. Allegations of coup plotting and unrest have emerged, indicating significant instability within the military leadership.

The U.S. and Japan are set to conduct the 'Iron Fist' joint military exercise from February 11 to March 9, 2026, involving 800 U.S. Marines, 2100 U.S. Navy personnel, and approximately 2000 Japanese Self-Defense Forces. The exercise will take place in Okinawa and surrounding islands, focusing on enhancing interoperability and rapid response capabilities against potential regional conflicts. New equipment and units will participate for the first time, including V-22 Ospreys and a newly formed amphibious unit.

The U.S. military has increased its presence in the Middle East, with the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group and additional naval assets deployed in the Gulf. The U.S. Air Force is conducting air readiness exercises, while Iran has issued warnings to neighboring countries about potential involvement in attacks. Iran has also initiated emergency measures to secure essential supplies and government functions in response to the heightened tensions.

China has built over 300 J-20 stealth fighters, integrating them into the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) by late October 2025. The J-20 is designed for air superiority and to target high-value assets, with plans to produce over 1,000 units by 2030. This rapid production is reshaping military aviation capabilities globally.

Four Chinese Navy vessels transited from the East China Sea into the Pacific Ocean near Okinawa and the Miyako Strait on January 27-28. The group included a Jiangkai II-class frigate and three guided-missile destroyers, monitored by Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force. This movement reflects a pattern of increased Chinese naval activity, with Japan maintaining a 24-hour surveillance posture to track these operations.

China's Ministry of National Defense is investigating two high-ranking military officials as part of a military purge. This action consolidates Xi Jinping's authority, particularly concerning military strategies related to Taiwan. The investigation was announced over the recent weekend, indicating significant changes within the military leadership.

A border defense company of the Xinjiang Military District conducted a patrol at a national border checkpoint, featuring a military dog named 'Dongfeng'. The dog successfully identified a suspicious individual attempting to cross the border. The patrol involved various training assessments and concluded with the display of the national flag to assert sovereignty.

The U.S. Air Force deployed at least 42 heavy transport aircraft, including 41 C-17A Globemaster IIIs and 1 C-5M Super Galaxy, to the Middle East from January 18 to 26. This operation is part of a significant logistical effort to enhance U.S. and allied forces in the region, with aircraft departing from bases in Germany and the UK to destinations in Qatar, Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia. Additionally, the U.S. Navy's Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has entered the region.