Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian forces conducted airstrikes on the Ilsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar Krai on February 16-17, 2026, targeting a key facility for Russian military operations. This attack is part of a broader campaign to undermine Russia's energy export infrastructure, aiming to create economic pressure and force a revision of Moscow's demands in negotiations. Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities have evolved, enabling these operations deep within Russian territory.

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Boeing is relocating its defense and space business headquarters back to St. Louis, ensuring leaders remain close to the 18,000 personnel in the area. The move, announced on Wednesday, aims to enhance operational efficiency and is part of Boeing's strategy to invest in future products and growth in St. Louis and Charleston. The defense division will continue to have a presence in Virginia, where the global headquarters remains.

Japan purchased 20 Wave Glider SV6 unmanned surface vehicles from Liquid Robotics under a $25 million Foreign Military Sales program. The U.S. Air Force Test Center at Eglin Air Force Base authorized the acquisition to support operational testing activities. The first unit is scheduled for delivery within 360 days, with final delivery within 720 days. This procurement ensures compatibility with Japan's existing unmanned systems.

The U.S. Army awarded Lockheed Martin a $33.8 million contract for ground and flight test support of the Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense Sensor (LTAMDS) integrated with the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) system. This contract, announced on February 18, 2026, aims to validate the sensor's performance and operational functionality, with completion expected by March 31, 2027. The LTAMDS program is intended to enhance air and missile defense capabilities by replacing the legacy Patriot radar.

The U.S. Air Force awarded Boeing a $13 million contract to upgrade infrared countermeasure systems on C-17 Globemaster III aircraft operated by Canada and Australia. The upgrades will convert existing Block 10 systems to the newer Block 30 configuration, enhancing the aircraft's survivability against infrared-guided threats. Work will be performed in San Antonio, Texas, with completion expected by July 2030.

A fuel leak incident occurred at Gunsan Air Base in South Korea last month, resulting in over 40,000 liters of fuel being spilled. The 8th Fighter Wing reported that approximately 11,000 gallons leaked from a fighter jet fuel tank. Following the incident, measures were implemented to prevent contamination, and there was no immediate threat to local residents. The U.S. Air Force is currently investigating the cause of the leak.

On January 27, 2024, the August 1st Air Demonstration Team flew 7 J-10C aircraft to Singapore's Changi Airport, supported by 1 Y-20A tanker for aerial refueling. This operation suggests that the Y-20A's production has reached a critical threshold for operational readiness, as it successfully supported a high-profile mission. The Chinese Air Force is focusing on increasing the number of Y-20A tankers to enhance its aerial refueling capabilities.

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UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called for an acceleration of military spending to reach 3% of GDP, following the Munich Security Conference. He emphasized the need for increased defense funding in light of threats from Russia. The UK government is exploring various funding sources to support this initiative, with a commitment to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035.

Russian forces captured Kharkivka and Kreminna in the Sumy and Zaporizhzhia regions on October 18. They conducted strikes against Ukrainian fuel depots, energy facilities, and drone launch sites. The Ukrainian Armed Forces reported 201 combat incidents, with 16 attacks from Russian forces in the Konstantinovka direction, and retaliatory strikes against Russian personnel and equipment.

The U.S. Air Force's Sentinel ICBM program faces significant risks due to software delays and an extended reliance on the aging Minuteman III system. A Nunn-McCurdy breach in January 2024 has prompted a restructuring effort, with the program's cost now estimated at over $141 billion and the first flight delayed to March 2028. The Air Force is actively working to address these challenges and mitigate risks to prevent capability gaps during the transition.

The U.S. Air Force's Sentinel ICBM program is experiencing significant software delays and risks associated with the aging Minuteman III system. A January 2024 Nunn-McCurdy breach has prompted a restructuring effort to address these issues. The program, led by Northrop Grumman, is projected to cost at least $141 billion, with the first flight now scheduled for March 2028. The GAO report highlights the need for improved project management and risk mitigation strategies to ensure nuclear readiness during the transition.

EURENCO signed a €300 million syndicated loan in Paris on February 18, 2026, to expand its industrial capacity in Europe. This financing, the largest for a French defense company, aims to support the defense sector amid strong demand. CEO Thierry Francou emphasized its significance for consolidating EURENCO's leadership in the ammunition industry and ensuring Europe's strategic autonomy.

Elbit Systems and TKMS inaugurated a new manufacturing facility in Israel on February 18, 2026, for underwater structural components for submarines. This facility aims to enhance Israel's defense manufacturing capabilities and create high-quality jobs in the region. The initiative is part of a long-term partnership between the companies and reflects a strategic investment in Israel's defense industry.

The U.S. Navy is streamlining its uniform requirements by phasing out multiple uniforms, including reducing the number of PT uniforms to one by 2027. The Navy is also considering eliminating some working boot options and has reestablished the Navy Uniform Board to review and improve uniform policies. This initiative aims to enhance the functionality and fit of uniforms for all sailors, particularly women.

Northrop Grumman's CEO announced that the company will not pursue direct Department of Defense investment for its solid rocket motors business during a conference in Washington. However, she indicated that some suppliers might seek such investments. The company believes it can scale production independently, maintaining strategic control over its solid rocket motors and related missile programs.

The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) is currently deployed to the Middle East, marking a projected 300-day deployment to counter Iran. Since June 24, 2025, the carrier has participated in high-intensity exercises in the North Sea and missions in the Caribbean. The U.S. Navy faces significant maintenance backlogs and a shipbuilding crisis, impacting its operational readiness and power projection capabilities.

The Government Accountability Office identified significant gaps in the military's response protocols for missing service members, particularly within the U.S. Navy and Air Force, which lack clear timelines for action. The Marine Corps has not updated its guidance despite previous recommendations. The report warns that these inconsistencies can lead to dangerous situations for personnel conducting welfare checks, especially when mental health crises are involved. A total of twelve recommendations were made to address these issues.

Russia faces significant economic challenges as high inflation and government spending threaten its defense industrial sector. The Central Bank's strict fiscal measures have resulted in record-high interest rates, jeopardizing the production of military weaponry. Experts warn that the current economic strategy may lead to irreparable damage to Russia's military capabilities.

Saronic established a West Coast Supply Hub for unmanned surface vehicles in San Diego, opening in October 2023. The facility will house at least 15 Corsair robot boats and aims to increase its workforce to over 100 employees by year-end. It will provide training for Navy personnel on operating and maintaining these vessels, enhancing logistics and repair capabilities.

USS George Washington underwent a six-year refueling and complex overhaul, resulting in significant crew turnover and mental health issues, including 11 suicides. The overhaul cost $2.8 billion and involved 26 million man-hours. The carrier is now stationed in Yokosuka, Japan, as part of the U.S. 7th Fleet, ready for operations in the region.