Analysis & Reports

AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources

Sahel: The rivalry between the Sahel States Alliance and ECOWAS in the face of jihadist escalation

Sahel: The rivalry between the Sahel States Alliance and ECOWAS in the face of jihadist escalation

Military OperationsPolitical-MilitaryOperational

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) deployed 5,000 to 6,000 troops in December 2025 to combat jihadist insurgency, while the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) plans a 260,000-strong anti-terror force by 2026. Jihadist groups, including JNIM and EIGS, have intensified attacks in the Sahel, notably against military installations in Burkina Faso and Niger. This military escalation highlights the political rivalry between AES and ECOWAS amid a deteriorating security situation in the region.

Marie DuboisMarie DuboisThu Mar 12 2026
Sahel: The rivalry between the Sahel States Alliance and ECOWAS in the face of jihadist escalation

Sahel: The rivalry between the Sahel States Alliance and ECOWAS in the face of jihadist escalation

Political-MilitaryMilitary OperationsStrategic

The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) deployed a unified force of 5,000 to 6,000 fighters in December 2025 to combat jihadist insurgency in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Meanwhile, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) announced plans for a larger regional anti-terrorist force comprising 260,000 soldiers, supported by a $2.5 billion annual budget. This situation highlights the political divide between the military juntas in the Sahel and the broader ECOWAS community.

Marie DuboisMarie DuboisThu Mar 12 2026
Europe's Strategic Recalibration: NATO's Arctic Focus and the Diversification of Continental Defense

Europe's Strategic Recalibration: NATO's Arctic Focus and the Diversification of Continental Defense

Political-MilitaryWeapons & EquipmentMilitary OperationsStrategic

NATO commenced its Cold Response 2026 exercise in the Norwegian Arctic on March 9, emphasizing civilian preparedness and total defense concepts. On the same day, NATO missile defense systems intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile that entered Turkish airspace. European defense strategy is diversifying, with increased arms imports from South Korea and Israel, while the UK is stepping up its leadership role in European security.

Alexandra ReevesAlexandra ReevesThu Mar 12 2026

The American Return to the Sahel: Between Strategic Pragmatism and Redefinition of Alliances

Political-MilitaryMilitary OperationsCasualties & LossesStrategic

The U.S. is negotiating security cooperation agreements with military juntas in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso as of March 2026. This includes the potential resumption of drone surveillance over Mali to monitor jihadist groups. Concurrently, jihadist activities have escalated in Nigeria, leading to military casualties. Sahelian forces have also reported tactical successes against militants, indicating a complex security landscape in the region.

Marie DuboisMarie DuboisThu Mar 12 2026

The Sahel at a Crossroads: Washington Reconnects with Military Juntas in the Face of Jihadist Rise

Military OperationsPolitical-MilitaryOperational

The U.S. is negotiating a return to military operations in the Sahel, including drone surveillance over Mali, while Nigerien forces successfully conducted operations against jihadists. Russian forces are providing military support to Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, amid increasing jihadist violence in Nigeria. This situation reflects a complex geopolitical landscape with implications for U.S. interests in the region.

Marie DuboisMarie DuboisThu Mar 12 2026
France’s Mediterranean armada signals clout as Middle East may rethink alliances

France’s Mediterranean armada signals clout as Middle East may rethink alliances

Military OperationsPolitical-MilitaryOperational

France deployed 10 warships, including the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, to the Eastern Mediterranean in March 2023 to enhance regional security and protect its interests. This unprecedented naval operation aims to position France as a credible security partner amid shifting alliances in the Middle East following Iranian missile strikes. The deployment includes 8 frigates and 2 helicopter carriers, demonstrating France's military capability and commitment to its defense agreements in the region.

Source: Defense NewsThu Mar 12 2026
190907-N-UR565-0660NAVAL SUPPORT ACTIVITY SOUDA BAY, Greece (Sept. 7, 2019) The Ohio-class cruise missile submarine USS Florida (SSGN 728) arrives in Souda Bay, Greece, for a scheduled port visit, Sept. 7, 2019. NSA Souda Bay is an operational ashore base that enables U.S., allied, and partner nation forces to be where they are needed and when they are needed to ensure security and stability in Europe, Africa, and Southwest Asia. (Photo by Joel Diller/Released)

727 Days Out On Patrol: Navy Ohio-Class Missile Submarine Broke All the Rules

Military OperationsStrategic AssessmentOperational

USS Florida (SSGN 728) completed a 727-day deployment starting in August 2022, operating across the Indo-Pacific, Middle East, and Europe. The submarine, armed with 154 Tomahawk missiles, showcased US military capabilities and deterrence amid rising global tensions. Despite its significant role, USS Florida is scheduled for retirement in 2026, raising concerns about a potential conventional strike gap in the US Navy's capabilities.

Source: 19FortyFiveWed Mar 11 2026
Recalibrating Deterrence: The 2026 National Defense Strategy and America's Indo-Pacific Dilemma

Recalibrating Deterrence: The 2026 National Defense Strategy and America's Indo-Pacific Dilemma

Political-MilitaryStrategic AssessmentStrategic

The Pentagon released the 2026 National Defense Strategy, emphasizing deterrence by denial against China and regional stability without direct confrontation. The strategy omits explicit commitments regarding Taiwan, raising concerns among allies. It demands that allies spend 5% of GDP on defense, prioritizing homeland defense over European commitments. The Pentagon plans to invest $10 billion in the Pacific Deterrence Initiative to enhance military readiness in the Indo-Pacific region.

Marcus ChenMarcus ChenWed Mar 11 2026

The Sahel Facing Strategic Fragmentation: Rivalry between ECOWAS and the Sahel States Alliance in the Counter-Terrorism Fight

Political-MilitaryMilitary OperationsForce MovementStrategic

ECOWAS is set to deploy 2000 soldiers by the end of 2026 to combat terrorism in the Sahel, while the Sahel States Alliance, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, aims to establish a joint force of 5000-6000 fighters. This dual military architecture arises amid rising terrorist threats and significant humanitarian crises, with Nigeria's economic challenges limiting its support for ECOWAS operations.

Marie DuboisMarie DuboisWed Mar 11 2026
The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower conducts rudder turns during sea trials. Dwight D. Eisenhower completed a nine-month planned incremental availability at Norfolk Naval Ship Yard on June 10 and is scheduled to resume underway operations this summer.

‘Captain, We Have Been Hit’: Tiny NATO Nuclear Submarine ‘Sunk’ $4.5 Billion U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier in a Wargame

Strategic AssessmentMilitary OperationsStrategic

The U.S. Navy faces critical vulnerabilities to submarine attacks, as demonstrated by the 2015 exercise where the French submarine Saphir penetrated carrier defenses undetected. Recent assessments highlight the threat posed by Russian Yasen-class submarines armed with Zircon hypersonic missiles, which could disable carrier operations. Historical incidents involving Swedish and Chinese submarines further illustrate the risks to U.S. Aircraft Carrier Strike Groups.

Source: 19FortyFiveWed Mar 11 2026

Sahel: Between Territorial Reconquests and Strategic Reconfiguration, the Anti-Jihadist Offensive Marks a Turning Point in March 2026

Military OperationsPolitical-MilitaryOperational

Burkinabè Armed Forces regained control of several strategic towns in Burkina Faso from jihadist groups in February 2026. Coordinated operations with Malian forces resulted in the elimination of over 100 militants. The U.S. lifted sanctions on Malian officials to facilitate ISR operations, while ECOWAS deployed a new military force to address the growing jihadist threat in West Africa. Ongoing attacks by the Islamic State in Niger underscore the persistent security challenges in the region.

Marie DuboisMarie DuboisWed Mar 11 2026
Macron: Will Send Warships to the Strait of Hormuz for "Escort"

Macron: Will Send Warships to the Strait of Hormuz for "Escort"

Military OperationsPolitical-MilitaryOperational

French President Macron announced the deployment of naval forces to the Strait of Hormuz on October 9, 2023, to ensure maritime security and protect European interests. The deployment includes 8 naval vessels, an aircraft carrier strike group, and 2 amphibious assault ships. Macron stated that this operation is a response to recent threats in the region, particularly concerning Iranian drone attacks.

Source: Global TimesTue Mar 10 2026
The Credibility Paradox: US Indo-Pacific Strategy Between Deterrence and Doubt

The Credibility Paradox: US Indo-Pacific Strategy Between Deterrence and Doubt

Political-MilitaryStrategic AssessmentStrategic

The U.S. military has adjusted its strategic posture in the Indo-Pacific, prioritizing homeland defense while increasing demands for regional allies to enhance their defense spending. This has led to concerns among allies about the reliability of U.S. security guarantees, especially as military assets are redeployed to other regions. China is responding by bolstering its military capabilities, indicating a shift in regional dynamics and security partnerships.

Marcus ChenMarcus ChenTue Mar 10 2026

Sahel: The ECOWAS-AES Rivalry Redefines the Regional Security Architecture

Military OperationsPolitical-MilitaryOperational

ECOWAS announced the deployment of 2000 soldiers by 2026, while the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) launched a unified force of 5000 soldiers in December 2025. On March 10, 2026, ISIS-Sahel attacked the Tahoua airport in Niger, targeting military drones. The security situation in the Sahel remains dire, with over 2.6 million displaced and terrorism-related deaths surpassing 10,000 in 2025.

Marie DuboisMarie DuboisTue Mar 10 2026
Diego Garcia base access: Getting past the misinformation

Diego Garcia base access: Getting past the misinformation

Political-MilitaryInformation OperationsStrategic

U.S. and U.K. governments engaged in discussions about the use of Diego Garcia military base for operations against Iran amid sovereignty disputes with Mauritius. The Biden administration supported a U.K.-Mauritius agreement in 2024, while India maintains a strategic partnership with Mauritius to counter Chinese influence. Trump reaffirmed the importance of securing Diego Garcia as a vital U.S. interest.

Source: Defense NewsTue Mar 10 2026
Deployment of Japan's First Domestic Long-Range Missiles and a New Phase in the Japan-U.S. Alliance: Strategic Implications of Building Counterstrike Capability

Deployment of Japan's First Domestic Long-Range Missiles and a New Phase in the Japan-U.S. Alliance: Strategic Implications of Building Counterstrike Capability

Weapons & EquipmentMilitary OperationsPolitical-MilitaryHybrid

Japan plans to deploy improved Type 12 surface-to-ship missiles in Kumamoto Prefecture by the end of March 2026, marking a significant shift in its defense policy. Concurrently, joint military exercises with the U.S. Navy were conducted to enhance operational capabilities. This deployment is a response to regional security concerns, particularly regarding China and North Korea.

Tanaka TakashiTanaka TakashiTue Mar 10 2026
Conflict Enters Day 11, Trump Signals "Ceasefire," US and Russian Leaders Hold Phone Call

Conflict Enters Day 11, Trump Signals "Ceasefire," US and Russian Leaders Hold Phone Call

Military OperationsPolitical-MilitaryOperational

U.S. and Israeli forces continued military strikes against Iran, marking the 11th day of conflict. President Trump announced plans to lift some oil sanctions to stabilize prices and discussed the situation with President Putin. Israel conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities in Tehran. France is considering military deployment in the Hormuz Strait to ensure regional security.

Source: Global TimesTue Mar 10 2026
B-52 Bomber

The Diego Garcia Red Line: Why the Trump Administration is Sinking the Chagos Islands Deal

Political-MilitaryStrategic AssessmentStrategic

The Trump administration opposes the UK-Mauritius Chagos Islands deal due to national security concerns regarding Diego Garcia, a key U.S. military base. The deal is seen as a threat to American interests, especially with Mauritius' close ties to China. U.S. military leaders emphasize the importance of maintaining control over Diego Garcia to ensure strategic operations in the Indian Ocean.

Source: 19FortyFiveMon Mar 09 2026

Sahel: The rivalry between the AES and ECOWAS reshapes West African security geopolitics

Military OperationsPolitical-MilitaryOperational

The Unified Force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) was officially launched in December 2025, comprising 6,000 soldiers from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, with its headquarters in Niamey. This force aims to counter the growing terrorist threat independently, while the Economic Community of West African States (CEDEAO) plans to establish a standby force of 260,000 soldiers by 2026. Recent terrorist attacks have intensified, highlighting the urgent need for effective regional cooperation amidst political fractures.

Marie DuboisMarie DuboisMon Mar 09 2026
U.S. 5TH FLEET AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (Jan. 5, 2012) The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) operates in the Arabian Sea during sunset. John C. Stennis is deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of responsibility conducting maritime security operations, theater security cooperation efforts and support missions for Operation Enduring Freedom. (U.S. Navy photo by Yeoman 3rd Class James Stahl/Released)

China’s New Aircraft Carrier Fleet Has 1 Big Advantage over the Navy They Can’t Match Now

Strategic AssessmentMilitary OperationsStrategic

China enhances its A2/AD capabilities to deter U.S. Navy operations in the Indo-Pacific by utilizing advanced anti-ship ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles. This strategic shift limits U.S. aircraft carriers' operational freedom, forcing them to operate from greater distances. The evolving maritime landscape indicates that U.S. naval dominance is increasingly contested as China develops comprehensive defenses for its carriers.

Source: 19FortyFiveMon Mar 09 2026