Analysis & Reports

Australia announced on April 15, 2023, a plan to increase its defense spending from 2% to 3% of GDP by 2033 to address complex geopolitical threats. The government will allocate an additional AUD 14 billion over the next four years and a total of AUD 117 billion over the next decade. This increase is described as the largest in peacetime in Australia's history, reflecting the need to enhance military capabilities in response to evolving threats.

Australia updated its National Defence Strategy and Integrated Investment Program, pledging an increase in defense spending to A$887 billion over the next decade. The strategy highlights elevated geopolitical risks and aims for defense spending to reach 3% of GDP by 2033-34. Key priorities include enhancing maritime capabilities and addressing air defense deficiencies, with a focus on autonomous systems and improved national civil preparedness.

The U.S. Air Force is preparing to retire the A-10 Thunderbolt II by fiscal year 2029, raising concerns about the future of combat search and rescue (CSAR) operations. The Air Force is evaluating potential replacements and emphasizing the need for specialized training for pilots. Congressional measures aim to slow the retirement process, reflecting concerns about operational readiness and the effectiveness of successor platforms. The A-10 has played a crucial role in CSAR missions for decades, and its retirement poses significant challenges.

Australia plans to increase its defense spending to 3% of GDP, reaching $96.6 billion AUD by 2033 and $113 billion AUD by 2036. The Australian Defense Force will strengthen its military capabilities and partnerships, particularly with the United States, to address rising geopolitical risks in the Indo-Pacific region. The National Defence Strategy emphasizes the importance of collaboration with allies and the need for increased investment in defense capabilities.

Japan is implementing preparedness measures, including a medical supply reserve plan for prolonged warfare. The Japan Self-Defense Forces are enhancing their medical capabilities and stockpiling supplies to address potential crises. This initiative is part of a broader shift towards a more militarized stance, reflecting lessons learned from the prolonged conflict in Ukraine. The government is also addressing concerns over reliance on foreign imports for medical supplies during emergencies.

Taiwan conducts the 42nd Han Kuang exercises from April 12 to April 24, 2026, incorporating U.S.-style military rehearsal methods and civil-military drills to enhance readiness against potential Chinese aggression. The exercises include the involvement of military intelligence units and focus on protecting energy supply routes. Concurrently, the PLA studies the U.S.-Iran conflict for insights relevant to Taiwan's defense strategy.

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The U.S. military is enhancing its missile defense capabilities in Guam, with plans to deploy an Enhanced Integrated Air and Missile Defense System by 2025. Currently, there are only 6 THAAD launchers with 48 interceptors on the island, which is vulnerable to potential missile attacks from the PLA. The military is also assessing troop requirements to support these systems amid concerns about infrastructure strain on the island.

The Philippine Armed Forces, in collaboration with the US Indo-Pacific Command and the Australian Defence Force, conducted joint maritime patrol and training exercises in the South China Sea from April 9 to 12, 2023. This event marked the second round of multilateral maritime cooperation activities for the year, emphasizing the deepening defense collaboration among the three nations. Various naval vessels and aircraft were deployed, highlighting a commitment to regional security and operational coordination.

The U.S. military is adapting its strategies based on lessons from the Iran conflict and the Ukraine war, focusing on drone warfare and logistics. Thousands of drones have been launched by Iran, prompting the U.S. to enhance its defense capabilities. Ukraine has provided anti-drone tactics to Gulf partners, highlighting the need for collaborative defense efforts. The economic implications of modern warfare, particularly in the Gulf region, are also emphasized.

The People's Navy is organizing open ship events in Qingdao and Dalian from April 22 to April 26, 2023, to celebrate its 77th anniversary. The events will feature various naval vessels, including the 052D destroyer and 054A frigate. Similar events are also scheduled in Zhanjiang and other locations, with reservations required for attendance.

Japan Integrated Security Design Agency (JISDA) announced the ACM-01 'Shiraha' drone on April 14, 2026, priced at approximately 70,000 yen ($450). This fixed-wing drone is designed as a training platform, emphasizing low-cost and expendability. JISDA aims to shift Japan's defense mindset towards using drones as repeatable services rather than expensive aircraft. The development was influenced by field research in Ukraine, focusing on the operational use of unmanned systems.

Zhang Jun Kai, a senior sergeant in the Logistics Support Force of the Chinese Armed Forces, has been pivotal in the maintenance of military vehicles for parades and competitions in 2019, 2021, and 2025. He successfully repaired and maintained 23 pieces of equipment for the 2025 parade, showcasing his expertise and commitment to military logistics. His contributions have earned him numerous accolades, including awards for his innovative repair techniques and dedication to training younger technicians.

Iran restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, imposing fees and asserting control over shipping lanes. In response, the U.S. Navy announced a blockade targeting Iranian shipping in April 2026. Japan and South Korea, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, began releasing strategic reserves and implementing fuel controls due to the economic disruption caused by the crisis. The International Energy Agency reported a significant oil supply shock, with prices spiking.

The Balikatan military exercise, involving 17,000 troops from the U.S. and allied nations, is set to take place in the Philippines from April 20 to May 8, 2026. This exercise aims to enhance regional security and interoperability among allies while the U.S. simultaneously manages a naval blockade of Iranian ports. The scale of participation reflects a commitment to multi-domain operations and strengthening political alliances in the Indo-Pacific region.

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The Australian Army successfully test-fired its first domestically manufactured Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) missiles at the Woomera Test Range in South Australia on April 9, 2026. This milestone positions Australia as the only country outside the United States to produce GMLRS missiles, enhancing its defense manufacturing capabilities. The test is part of a broader effort to establish a self-sufficient defense industry, supported by a $320 million government investment.

The Australian Army test-fired its first locally assembled Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) at the Woomera Test Range in South Australia. This milestone marks a significant step towards local production of long-range strike weapons, with plans to increase domestic component manufacturing. Australia has ordered 42 HIMARS launchers and aims to produce up to 4,000 GMLRS rockets annually, enhancing its sovereign defense capabilities.

Gulf countries are urgently procuring air defense systems due to the depletion of their missile stocks amid ongoing conflicts. The UAE and Bahrain have consumed over 75% of their Patriot-3 interceptors. Saudi Arabia has requested expedited delivery of the Cheongung II system from South Korea. Additionally, Ukraine is offering low-cost drone interception solutions to these nations. This situation reflects a significant shift in defense procurement strategies in the region.

The U.S. military has redirected significant assets from the Indo-Pacific to the Middle East due to the ongoing conflict with Iran, withdrawing missile defense systems from South Korea and a Marine unit from Japan. This shift has raised concerns among allies in Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea about the U.S. commitment to regional security. The Trump-Xi summit has been delayed, reflecting the broader strategic implications of the conflict.

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The United States is reallocating military resources from the Indo-Pacific to the Iran conflict, significantly impacting its defense posture in the region. This diversion includes the removal of missile defense systems from South Korea and the expenditure of a large portion of missile interceptors during the recent Iran-Israel-U.S. conflict. As a result, U.S. allies express concern over the weakening of American military support in the Indo-Pacific, while China continues to stockpile munitions in anticipation of potential conflict.

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USS George Washington is in port at Yokosuka for maintenance, with a return to service not expected until late 2026. USS John Stennis is undergoing a mid-life refueling and complex overhaul in Newport News, with a projected return in October 2026. USS Harry Truman is preparing for similar maintenance after a deployment, addressing damage from a collision.