Analysis & Reports

Russia's Foreign Ministry spokesperson declared that the deployment of military forces from any 'Volunteer Alliance' country in Ukraine is unacceptable and will be treated as legitimate targets. This statement was made during a press conference in Moscow on July 15, 2023. The 'Volunteer Alliance', led by France and the UK, plans to conduct military exercises in European countries bordering Ukraine, which Russia views as a significant security threat.

Russia's Iskander-M missile system is actively being utilized in Ukraine, demonstrating advanced capabilities against air defenses. The missile can carry nuclear payloads and employs tactics to evade interception. Continuous improvements have been made based on battlefield experience, and it can coordinate with drone swarms to enhance its effectiveness. The system poses a significant threat to NATO countries due to its range and capabilities.

Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces damaged or disabled 116 Russian-linked vessels during a nine-day drone campaign in the Sea of Azov, with an additional wave targeting 20 more vessels. The operation focused on commercial and logistical vessels, aiming to disrupt Russia's military supply lines. This campaign reflects Ukraine's strategy of targeting infrastructure rather than direct military assets, utilizing inexpensive drones for sustained attacks.

Ukrainian naval drones targeted 136 Russian vessels between July 6 and 15, 2026, disrupting logistics in the Azov and Black Seas. This operation included attacks on oil tankers and gas carriers, indicating a shift in Ukrainian tactics to undermine Russian supply lines. In response, Russia is contemplating changes to its cargo routes due to the increased frequency of these attacks.

Dmitri VolkovWed Jul 15 2026Loading...

Ukrainian FPV drone operators from the Rarog unit struck a Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter near Vyazovoye at around 10:00, hitting the tail boom and causing it to crash. This incident highlights the growing effectiveness of drones against traditional air assets, raising concerns for NATO about the vulnerability of helicopters in combat. The Mi-28, valued at millions, was taken down by a relatively inexpensive drone, indicating a significant shift in battlefield dynamics.

Alexandra ReevesWed Jul 15 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drone operators from the Rarog unit struck a Russian Mi-28 helicopter with a FPV drone near Vyazovoye in Belgorod region around 10:00, causing it to crash. The strike targeted the helicopter's tail boom, demonstrating the effectiveness of drone warfare against heavily armored aircraft. This incident reflects a continuing trend of successful drone strikes on Russian Mi-28s by Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainian forces struck 20 Russian vessels in the Black Sea on July 15, 2023, using drone systems. The operation targeted 17 tankers, 2 liquefied gas transport ships, and 1 tugboat, marking a shift in operations from the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea. This action was confirmed by the Ukrainian military's social media announcement.

Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force is set to participate in RIMPAC 2026 and Sea Breeze 2026 exercises in July 2026, focusing on operations in both the Pacific and Black Sea. These exercises highlight Japan's adaptation to complex maritime threats, including the integration of unmanned systems and mine warfare. However, the increased training commitments may strain domestic readiness and personnel resources.

Tanaka TakashiWed Jul 15 2026Loading...

Ukraine launched drone strikes against Russian oil refineries and shipping in the Black Sea, targeting facilities in Bashkortostan and Krasnodar Krai. Russian air defenses intercepted 288 drones overnight, while Ukrainian forces reported successful hits on multiple vessels. These operations are part of a broader strategy to disrupt Russian energy supplies and logistics, contributing to a fuel crisis in Russia.

The Ukrainian Navy confirmed the destruction of the Russian border guard ship Izumrud near Novorossiysk on July 14, 2026, using the Sargan-3000 unmanned surface strike boat. Satellite imagery shows the ship partially submerged and the surrounding pier scorched, validating the Ukrainian claims. This incident adds to the ongoing degradation of Russia's naval capabilities in the Black Sea.

The Ukrainian Navy sank the Russian border guard ship Izumrud near Novorossiysk using the Sargan-3000 unmanned strike platform. This operation resulted in casualties among the ship's crew. The Izumrud was previously involved in the 2018 Kerch Strait incident, highlighting its significance in the ongoing conflict. This action is part of Ukraine's broader strategy to target Russian naval assets in the Black Sea.

Russian Federal Security Service foiled a Ukrainian attempt to attack military airports in Bryansk Oblast and Amur Region using drones on July 13, 2023. The operation involved 24 FPV drones and mobile ground control stations, which were intercepted before they could be deployed. This incident is reminiscent of a previous operation known as 'Web', where Ukrainian forces successfully attacked Russian strategic airports.

The Kilo-class submarines, integral to the Russian Navy, have faced significant vulnerabilities from modern drone technology, with incidents in 2023 and 2025 resulting in severe damage and sinking. Despite their historical success and ongoing production, these submarines are now at risk from inexpensive drone strikes while still being utilized by various navies worldwide. Russia continues to enhance their capabilities, but the design's limitations are becoming apparent as more advanced alternatives emerge.

The Admiral Nakhimov, a Kirov-Class Battlecruiser, returned to the White Sea for final trials on June 1, 2026, after a 27-year modernization costing around $5 billion. It is equipped with advanced weaponry, including Zircon hypersonic missiles, and will serve as the flagship of the Russian Northern Fleet. However, its operational effectiveness is challenged by difficulties in target acquisition and vulnerabilities highlighted by recent naval conflicts.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet has been forced to adapt by fitting counter-drone cages on its Kilo-class submarines in Novorossiysk due to significant losses inflicted by Ukrainian naval drones. Approximately one-third of the fleet has been destroyed or rendered inactive, leading to a retreat from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. Ukraine's innovative use of low-cost naval drones has changed naval warfare dynamics, prompting global naval powers to reassess their strategies.

Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov, resulting in the closure of the maritime corridor by Russia. Over a recent eight-day period, Ukraine reportedly struck 105 vessels, including 10 tankers and 4 ferries. The attacks have raised concerns in Russia regarding their naval defense capabilities and have impacted logistics in occupied Crimea.

Ukrainian drone strikes recently killed three and wounded five in Pionersky, Moscow region. The strikes also caused a fire in Stavropol and temporarily disrupted operations at Moscow airports. Ukrainian drones flew 1,500 miles to hit an oil refinery in Omsk, marking the longest-range strike of the war. These actions are testing Russian air defenses and have led to significant operational disruptions.

Ukraine launched a large-scale drone strike against over ten Russian military targets on July 13, including an airbase in Crimea and oil storage facilities. In retaliation, Russian forces struck Ukrainian infrastructure in Chernomorsk, destroying facilities used for military supplies. Both sides utilized drones and precision weapons in their operations.

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on 22 Russian oil refineries and related infrastructure from January to June 2026, impacting fuel logistics. The strikes targeted facilities in Tver, Stavropol Krai, Ufa, Rostov Oblast, Yaroslavl, Ust-Luga, and Omsk. As a result, fuel shortages have emerged in 78 of 83 Russian regions, complicating military supply chains and operations.

Dmitri VolkovMon Jul 13 2026Loading...

Ukraine's military conducted a mass simultaneous strike using at least ten modified light aircraft to target an underground logistics hub in Armyansk, Crimea. The aircraft, converted from ultralight models, were equipped with Soviet-designed high-explosive bombs. This operation represents a significant evolution in Ukraine's military capabilities, showcasing their ability to utilize civilian technology for military purposes.