Analysis & Reports

The Munich Security Conference 2026 will focus on major geopolitical shifts and emerging security risks, including AI and cyberattacks. The European Security & Defence (ESD) has published a special edition to contribute to the discussions, featuring insights from decision-makers and experts. The digital edition is available for free download.

The U.S. Navy faces significant munitions shortages, with Admiral Paparo warning that current stocks are insufficient for a high-intensity conflict in the Western Pacific. A recent wargame revealed that the U.S. could exhaust critical munitions within eight days of engaging in conflict over Taiwan. The ongoing military assistance to Ukraine and Israel further strains U.S. munitions inventories, highlighting a logistical crisis in the defense industrial base.

Marcus ChenTue Feb 10 2026Loading...

Lithuania plans to allocate 4.79 billion euros for defense in 2026, representing 5.38% of its GDP, while facing challenges in military autonomy due to reliance on U.S. support. The Baltic states, including Estonia and Latvia, are recognized for their high defense spending but struggle to build substantial military capabilities independently. This situation raises concerns about the sustainability of such expenditures and their impact on other public services.

Dr. Klaus WeberTue Feb 10 2026Loading...

Russian forces conducted airstrikes on nuclear power plant infrastructure in Ukraine on February 6-7, 2026, deploying 408 drones and 39 missiles. Ukrainian air defense successfully intercepted 406 of these, but 34 managed to strike 19 locations, severely impacting energy generation. This operation represents a strategic shift in targeting high-voltage substations, aiming to disrupt the energy supply and increase pressure on Ukraine amid ongoing negotiations.

Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 10 2026Loading...

As of February 2026, the UK-Italy-Japan GCAP program is advancing towards a 2035 service date, while the FCAS project between France and Germany is stalled due to disputes. European nations are weighing their options between continued F-35 purchases and investing in autonomous fighter programs to enhance their defense capabilities.

On February 8, 2026, a Ukrainian STING interceptor shot down a modified Shahed-2 drone equipped with an R-60 missile. This incident marks the third confirmed use of R-60 missiles on drones, indicating a tactical shift by Russian forces. The missiles, originally designed for air-to-air combat, are now being adapted for drone warfare, reflecting the challenges faced by Russian forces in achieving operational effectiveness against Ukrainian air defenses.

Dmitri VolkovMon Feb 09 2026Loading...

Russian forces faced severe communication failures in Ukraine after SpaceX restricted Starlink access, leading to operational paralysis. Thousands of contraband Starlink terminals had been used for tactical communications, but the new whitelist system implemented by SpaceX has left frontline units scrambling for inadequate alternatives. This disruption undermines Russia's ability to coordinate operations effectively, particularly in their ongoing air interdiction campaign.

Alexandra ReevesMon Feb 09 2026Loading...

Germany plans to increase its defense budget to 83 billion euros by 2026, while a simulation suggests that Russia could dominate the Baltic states with just 15,000 soldiers if NATO hesitates. The E6 format, initiated by Germany and France, aims to enhance defense cooperation among major EU economies but may not resolve deeper strategic issues. The report highlights a leadership problem in European defense, indicating that increased spending alone will not ensure security.

Dr. Klaus WeberMon Feb 09 2026Loading...

Ukraine has launched Mission Control, a digital command-and-control system for drone operations, aimed at unifying planning and reporting across the country. This initiative is part of Ukraine's strategy to enhance its military capabilities against Russia's numerical superiority. The system integrates with the DELTA battlefield management ecosystem and is designed to provide real-time visibility and improve operational efficiency. Ukraine produces over 5 million drones annually, including various types for combat.

Ukraine has launched Mission Control, a digital command-and-control system for drone operations, aimed at unifying planning and execution across the country. This system integrates data from various military domains and is designed to enhance battlefield analysis and operational efficiency. Ukraine produces over 5 million drones annually, and the initiative reflects a strategic shift towards data-driven warfare. The system also emphasizes cybersecurity, ensuring that operational data remains secure.

Russian Armed Forces have lost over 1,200 T-80 tanks in Ukraine, leading to their withdrawal from production and replacement with older T-62 tanks. The T-80's design flaws have resulted in high casualties among crews, and the failure of the Gerasimov Doctrine has exacerbated tactical issues. As a result, the Russian military is facing significant operational challenges in the ongoing conflict.

Russia has deployed 1960s-era T-62 tanks to the front lines in Ukraine as of January 2026, following the loss of over 4,000 modern main battle tanks since the invasion began in 2022. This shift in armored strategy highlights the severe depletion of Russia's armored forces and the reliance on outdated equipment. The T-62 tanks are facing catastrophic design flaws, leading to significant casualties among crews when hit.

London Defence R&D unveiled the Raptor Pilot AI Pro system at the World Defense Show, designed for unmanned aerial vehicles and robotic systems. This AI-powered autopilot integrates flight control, guidance, and AI processing into a compact module, enhancing military capabilities. The system supports high-rate stabilization and is compatible with various unmanned platforms, including drones and ground robots.

Germany is urged to provide military aid to Poland, including submarines and tanks, as Poland demands $1.3 trillion in WWII reparations. Poland plans to increase its defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2026, while Germany's military aid is viewed as a symbolic gesture rather than a substantive solution to historical grievances. The report critiques Germany's approach to defense cooperation, emphasizing the need for a more integrated European defense strategy.

Dr. Klaus WeberMon Feb 09 2026Loading...

Western navies are enhancing combat capabilities through modular ship designs, as discussed at a recent conference in Paris. The U.S., Italian, Dutch, and British navies are integrating containerized mission modules to improve flexibility and firepower. The Dutch Navy plans to be combat-ready by 2028, while the U.S. Navy is focusing on modular force packages for future ships. Italy's new frigates and the UK's mission pods are part of this strategic shift towards modularity in naval operations.

Western navies are enhancing combat capabilities through modular ship designs, as discussed at a recent conference in Paris. The U.S., Italy, the Netherlands, and the UK are integrating containerized mission modules to improve flexibility and firepower. The Dutch Navy aims to have modular support vessels operational by 2028, while the U.S. Navy is focusing on containerized mission packages for its new frigate. The UK is also testing modular mission pods to adapt to future threats.

On February 5, 2026, SpaceX and Ukrainian authorities blocked Russian access to Starlink terminals in Ukraine, causing severe communication issues for Russian troops. Military bloggers reported that without Starlink, operators lost real-time video transmission capabilities, leading to decreased artillery accuracy. This incident highlights the Russian military's reliance on foreign technology and the systemic vulnerabilities in their communication infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovMon Feb 09 2026Loading...

Rising costs of the F-35 and other U.S. military aircraft are prompting Southeast Asian nations to seek alternatives, such as South Korea's FA-50. The F-35's lifetime cost is projected to reach $2 trillion, significantly impacting U.S. defense relationships. Countries like the Philippines are increasing their FA-50 fleets in response to budgetary concerns and regional tensions with China.

More than 230 Americans, including active-duty military members from the U.S. Army and Air Force, are competing in the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan Cortina, Italy. Events include bobsled, biathlon, and figure skating, with notable athletes like Army Sgt. Frank Del Duca serving as a flag bearer. The Winter Olympics run through February 22, 2026.

Russia's Tu-22M3 bombers are actively engaged in operations over Ukraine, adapting to modern air defense systems while suffering losses. As of April 2024, reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have successfully shot down several Tu-22M3 bombers, highlighting their vulnerability despite their role as long-range missile carriers. The Russian Air Force operates around 57 of these bombers, which are equipped with Kh-22 cruise missiles.