Analysis & Reports

Two tankers, the Xin Long Yang and Rodos, reversed course in the Red Sea on Tuesday due to Houthi threats against vessels loading at Saudi ports. The Xin Long Yang was en route to China, while the Rodos was headed for India. The Houthi warnings effectively deterred the tankers from proceeding, highlighting the impact of perceived risks on shipping routes for Saudi oil exports.

President Trump announced that the U.S. plans to strike the fortified Pickaxe Mountain facility in Iran very heavily, indicating an imminent military operation. The facility, linked to Iran's nuclear program, is located near Natanz, and reports suggest it may house nuclear centrifuges. This announcement reflects a potential escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions rather than efforts to establish a ceasefire.

Houthi forces announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia on October 20, 2023, in retaliation for Saudi actions in Yemen. Saudi Arabia condemned the blockade and pledged to protect its shipping. This escalation could disrupt global oil supply, as the Mandeb Strait is a critical shipping route.

Houthi forces announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia on October 20, 2023, in retaliation for Saudi's blockade of Yemen. Saudi Arabia condemned the blockade and pledged to take necessary measures to protect its vessels. This escalation could disrupt global oil supply, particularly if the Mandeb Strait is closed, as it is a critical shipping route for Saudi oil exports.

Saudi Arabia established a $100 million defense fund named Masna on July 20, 2026, to explore defense manufacturing partnerships with American companies. The fund aims to create 8 to 12 special purpose companies for producing defense technologies domestically. This initiative reflects a shift in Saudi defense policy, emphasizing local production capabilities in response to regional security challenges.

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Fincantieri signed a contract with the Qatar Emiri Naval Forces for the operational management of the Training and Simulation Centre, enhancing the Qatari Navy's training capabilities. This three-year agreement aims to support the operational training of naval personnel through advanced simulation systems, contributing to their readiness and effectiveness. The contract signifies a deepening partnership between Fincantieri and the Qatari Navy following previous naval vessel deliveries.

Embraer signed an agreement with Anduril to integrate Barracuda-500M missiles onto the C-390 Millennium aircraft at the Farnborough Airshow. This marks the first offensive capability for the C-390, with interest from various countries in Europe and Asia. Embraer anticipates delivering the first two C-390s to the United Arab Emirates by 2028, while also expanding production of the Saab Gripen for international clients.

The United Arab Emirates and Israel established a joint fund on July 21, 2026, to purchase and develop Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (C-UAS) and air defense systems. This collaboration marks a shift in their defense relationship, focusing on shared military technology and procurement. The UAE's defense budget for 2026 is estimated at 27 billion dollars, reflecting its commitment to enhancing its military capabilities against Iranian threats.

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U.S. President Trump is expected to decide within days whether to expand military operations against Iran, potentially restoring full combat operations. Recent U.S. military actions have avoided strikes near Tehran and Iranian nuclear facilities. Military personnel are on standby for deployment pending Trump's decision, with indications that Israel may participate in any significant escalation.

The Saudi-led coalition has initiated protective measures for member state vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as of July 20, responding to threats from Houthi forces in Yemen. The coalition's spokesperson stated that they will act decisively against any threats, following the Houthis' announcement of a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia. Tensions have escalated due to recent airstrikes on Sana'a International Airport, attributed to the coalition.

Sweden's Air Force ordered three Saab GlobalEye radar planes to complement NATO's acquisition of ten similar aircraft. The order, announced by Maj. Gen. Jonas Wikman in London, is part of Sweden's commitment to enhance its military capabilities and support NATO operations. The new aircraft are expected to be delivered by 2027, while Sweden has already donated older radar planes to Ukraine.

The U.S. is evolving its plans for Air Force One, which was donated by Qatar. Ottawa is expected to join the Global Combat Air Programme as an observer, highlighting international cooperation in defense technology. Additionally, there is a growing competition across the Atlantic to develop drone wingmen for human pilots.

The U.S. is actively engaging with Iraq and Syria to unify its policy and strengthen partnerships in response to rising tensions with Iran. Key meetings between President Trump and the leaders of both countries took place in mid-July 2025, focusing on energy infrastructure rehabilitation and potential U.S. investments. As U.S. forces prepare to leave Iraq in September 2026, the emphasis is on stabilizing the region and managing Iranian-backed militias.

U.S. and Iranian forces engaged in military conflict, with two American servicemen killed by Iranian ballistic missiles at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. The U.S. maintains 50,000 troops and 20 naval warships in the region. Mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire, confirmed by Iranian officials, amid ongoing hostilities and casualties.

Saudi Arabia requested 20,000 APKWS II missiles worth $1.96 billion to enhance its air defense capabilities against drones and low-cost aerial threats. The deal, announced on July 16, 2026, includes both air-to-air and air-to-ground variants, with BAE Systems as the primary contractor. This procurement indicates a strategic shift in Saudi defense policy towards more economical solutions for air defense.

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Ben Wallace urged the Israeli government to assist Ukraine early in the war, but Israel declined to avoid upsetting Russia. This decision has led to increased Russian-Iranian cooperation in drone attacks against Israel. Wallace criticized Israel's broader economic relationship with Russia, emphasizing the consequences of their refusal to support Ukraine. The situation reflects ongoing tensions and the complex geopolitical dynamics involving Israel, Ukraine, and Russia.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to have shot down a Polish-made Tiguar-M drone in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province. The drone is said to have been operated by the U.S. Army during a recent exercise in the Philippines. This claim has not been independently verified by U.S. military sources, and Iran has a history of using such incidents for propaganda.

The Qatari Air Force One, a modified Boeing 747, will be taken offline for upgrades in about a month, as announced by President Trump. The aircraft, which lacks standard anti-missile countermeasures, was accepted by the U.S. government last year and is undergoing modifications costing less than $400 million. Trump previously opted to use an older Air Force One model during a NATO summit amid rising tensions with Iran.

Egypt is developing large military facilities while Turkey responds to NATO summit outcomes. Middle Eastern nations are adjusting their military strategies in light of the US-Israeli war on Iran. Additionally, South Korean defense firm Hanwha has partnered with Emirati firm Generation 5 Holding to enhance regional defense capabilities.

Iran's Atomic Energy Organization condemned the United States on July 19 for a 'terrorist attack' on a construction site of a nuclear power plant in Tehran.