Analysis & Reports

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) resumed missile and drone attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting U.S. airstrikes against Iranian coastal targets. The U.S. Navy reinstated a blockade to protect maritime traffic, while discussions of potential ground operations against Iran are ongoing. The situation reflects the complexities of U.S. military strategy in the region and the implications of possible withdrawal.

Iran's Foreign Ministry stated that the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding is only valuable if national interests and security are upheld. Iran will fulfill its obligations only if the U.S. complies; otherwise, it will cease compliance and take countermeasures.

U.S. military operations in Iran have incurred costs estimated between $80 billion and $100 billion, far exceeding the previously reported $31 billion. The Department of Defense's internal assessments reveal significant expenses related to military actions and base reconstruction. Congress has expressed dissatisfaction over the lack of transparency in military spending, prompting a request for an additional $68 billion budget.

Twenty-five U.S. senators demanded the Pentagon release findings from an investigation into a deadly airstrike on Shajareh Tayyebeh Elementary School in Minab, Iran, on February 28, 2026. The strike reportedly killed around 120 children and raised concerns about outdated intelligence. The senators set a deadline of July 20 for the Pentagon to provide a complete report and a plan to prevent future civilian casualties.

Russia's submarine force remains a significant threat to NATO in 2026, with 8 Borei-class submarines and ongoing modernization efforts. The fleet faces challenges, including slow production rates and operational losses, but continues to operate effectively in strategic regions like the Arctic and North Atlantic. The introduction of new capabilities, such as the Khabarovsk carrier for Poseidon torpedoes, underscores its importance in Russia's military strategy.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared that as long as the U.S. continues its attacks, the region will not export any oil or gas. This statement was made on July 15 in Tehran, emphasizing the consequences of U.S. military actions on regional energy exports.

Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Zaydi announced that U.S. troops must withdraw from Iraq by September 30, 2023, during a meeting with U.S. President Trump at the White House on the 14th.

The U.S. military resumed its maritime blockade against Iran on July 14, 2023, at 16:00 EDT. Over 20 naval vessels and hundreds of military aircraft are deployed in the Middle East to deter threats to commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. This action follows a previous blockade from April to June 2023, as stated by U.S. Central Command and President Trump.

The U.S. Navy conducted operations in the Pacific Ocean on June 28, 2024, involving the USS Louisiana and USS Florida amid ongoing tensions with Iran. The failed Memorandum of Understanding has led to renewed conflict, with both nations unwilling to negotiate. Iran is banking on U.S. domestic political pressures to influence the war's outcome.

Gas prices in the U.S. have increased by 10 cents due to renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran, following the collapse of a ceasefire. This rise in prices is linked to surging oil prices and ongoing military actions in the region. Additionally, China's reduced crude oil imports and Russia's diesel export ban are contributing to tighter global refined product markets.

The U.S. Navy is conducting exercises in the Pacific Ocean to enhance strike group readiness. U.S. military operations have significantly degraded Iranian military capabilities, limiting its threat to regional neighbors. The U.S. is also initiating reconstruction efforts in the Greater Middle East and brokering diplomatic deals to stabilize the region. Trump's administration aims to form a coalition to ensure regional security and prevent the resurgence of Iranian influence.

Turkey is negotiating to sell its Russian-made S-400 missile system to acquire U.S. F-35 fighter jets, amid significant political and military implications. The U.S. has expressed concerns about Turkey's S-400 system preventing the sale of F-35s, while Israel opposes the deal, fearing it would disrupt regional power dynamics. Discussions with Russia regarding the resale of the S-400 are ongoing, adding complexity to the situation.

U.S. Central Command conducted airstrikes against Iranian military targets in Bushehr, Chabahar, and Abbas Port on October 13-14, 2023. President Trump announced the restoration of a maritime blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, asserting U.S. control over shipping in the area. In retaliation, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked the U.S. Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. The situation escalates tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with potential implications for global energy security.

U.S. President Donald Trump is engaged in an ongoing war with Iran, with control of the Strait of Hormuz as a key issue. He faces pressure to resolve the conflict through military escalation, withdrawal, or diplomatic efforts. The U.S. military continues operations in the region, including air missions in support of ongoing efforts.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed the Major Non-NATO Ally Terror Threat Assessment Act on July 13, 2023, requiring a report on terrorist organizations in allied countries. This legislation aims to enhance oversight of security cooperation with nations like Egypt, Jordan, and Qatar, where terrorist groups operate. The Secretary of Homeland Security will provide assessments every two years to Congress, detailing the activities of these organizations and the effectiveness of partner governments in addressing them.

U.S. President Trump announced that the U.S. should receive compensation for protecting its Middle Eastern allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, amid tensions with Iran. He emphasized the U.S. role in safeguarding a wealthy region and stated that the U.S. will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz, expecting payment for this service. Trump also mentioned a 20% fee on goods transported through the strait.

An explosion was reported in Bushehr, Iran, at 3:10 AM local time on July 14. Iranian media has not provided further details, and there has been no official statement from authorities regarding the incident.

President Trump notified Congress of renewed military action against Iran, stating that U.S. forces conducted defensive strikes on July 7. This action has intensified the dispute between Congress and the White House, as Congress had previously voted to limit the president's war powers regarding Iran. The White House maintains that Trump is acting within his constitutional authority as Commander-in-Chief.

The U.S. military will reimpose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz starting July 14, 2020, following renewed fighting with Iran. The blockade will charge a toll on all cargo traffic, aimed at ensuring safety and security in the waterway. U.S. forces have conducted over 300 strikes on Iranian targets in response to attacks on commercial shipping, while maintaining a strong naval presence in the region.

The U.S. military will begin enforcing a maritime blockade on Iran starting at 4 p.m. EST on July 14. This blockade will cover all of Iran's ports, oil terminals, and coastal areas, allowing for interception of unauthorized vessels. However, neutral transit through the Strait of Hormuz will remain unaffected.