Analysis & Reports

China's Permanent Mission to the United Nations urged parties involved in the Ukraine crisis to maintain calm and restraint, advocating for conditions conducive to an early ceasefire. The representative expressed concern over the escalating military attacks and their impact on civilians, calling for adherence to international humanitarian law and a political resolution to the conflict.

A Hamas delegation discussed the implementation of the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement with Egyptian officials in Cairo on July 9. They confirmed plans to transfer administrative control of Gaza to the Gaza National Administrative Committee and agreed to facilitate peacekeeping efforts. Additionally, a proposal for a pilot area in Rafah was received from a U.S.-initiated 'Peace Committee'.

A Russian T-90M tank was sighted on July 4, 2026, equipped with the Arena-M active protection system, suggesting a potential shift towards deployment. The system aims to enhance tank survivability against drone threats, although its effectiveness against swarming FPV drones is debated. Crews have shown distrust in the tank's protection, leading to instances of abandonment during combat.

On July 1, 2026, the U.S. Air Force conducted a military exercise over the Philippine Sea, featuring an F-15EX fighter flying alongside an Australian-built MQ-28 Ghost Bat drone. This marked the first time the Air Force published an image of a collaborative combat aircraft with a crewed fighter. The MQ-28 has demonstrated combat capabilities, including an autonomous missile launch that resulted in an air-to-air kill.

The U.S. Navy committed to building 16 Orca robot submarines for mine-laying operations in May 2026, despite previous doubts about the program's requirements and budget. The Orca, an 80-ton autonomous submarine, is intended for use in high-risk environments where crewed vessels would be at risk. Meanwhile, a competing underwater drone, Ghost Shark, developed by Anduril, has been delivered ahead of schedule, raising questions about the Navy's procurement strategy.

IAEA teams reported hearing military activity sounds, including drones and gunfire, near Khmelnytskyi, South Ukraine, and Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plants from July 2 to 8, 2023. IAEA Director General Grossi highlighted the ongoing risks to nuclear safety amid the conflict, urging military restraint around nuclear facilities. No damage to the plants has been reported.

Multiple explosions occurred in Abbas Port, Iran, on July 9, 2023, following U.S. military airstrikes against Iranian targets. The strikes resulted in casualties among fishermen and military personnel, as confirmed by local sources and U.S. Central Command.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced on July 9, 2023, that Israel will not permit Iran to acquire nuclear weapons and plans to increase its defense budget by 350 billion new shekels over the next decade. This budget will focus on enhancing the air force and developing the domestic military industry. The announcement comes amid escalating military tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with reports of Iranian missile strikes against U.S. positions.

The Komsomolsk-on-Amur plant in Russia completed 20 Su-35 jets for Iran, causing delays for the Russian Aerospace Forces as export orders take precedence. Deliveries to Russia's air force are expected to slow for the next two to three years, highlighting logistical challenges in military aircraft production amid multiple international commitments.

Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces conducted significant strikes on July 6, targeting 47 Russian military assets, including two S-400 launchers in Bryansk and Crimea. The campaign focuses on destroying critical radar systems to blind Russian air defenses, with reports indicating a high rate of attrition against these assets. Despite Russia's ability to produce launchers, the slow replacement of radars poses a challenge for their air defense capabilities.

China's People's Liberation Army Navy conducted live-fire drills and operations around Australia, showcasing its capabilities with over 90 modern destroyers and frigates. The Type 055 cruiser led a task group that operated 5,000 miles from home, demonstrating a sophisticated naval architecture. The fleet's rapid growth and modernization have positioned it as a significant force in the Pacific, with capabilities that challenge Western naval standards.

The Pentagon plans to reprogram $4.3 billion from its Fiscal Year 2026 budget to cover increased personnel and operational costs. This includes $1.1 billion for Army personnel and significant reallocations within the Navy and Air Force budgets. The adjustments reflect the need to address unforeseen military requirements and maintain readiness amid ongoing operations.

Space Force selected two startup companies, Impulse Space and Relativity Federal, for future national security launch missions. Both firms will receive a $5 million contract to assess capabilities and compete for upcoming contracts. The Space Force anticipates conducting over 100 missions in the next five years, with a significant increase in demand for launch capabilities.

HMS Ambush, a Royal Navy Astute-class submarine, has not been operational since August 2022 and is currently at Faslane, Scotland, being stripped for parts to maintain other submarines. One-fifth of Britain's nuclear attack submarine force is effectively non-operational, with a recovery plan initiated in January 2026 to address logistical challenges. The Royal Navy is facing significant shortages in dry docks, spare parts, and qualified engineers, jeopardizing its operational readiness.

The U.S. Navy plans to launch the next phase of its marketplace for high-capacity, medium-sized drone boats on August 1. This initiative focuses on medium unmanned surface vessels (MUSVs) designed to enhance logistics support and operational readiness. The Navy is shifting its procurement strategy to a marketplace format while maintaining control over the MUSV program, despite new oversight from the Pentagon.

The demand for HIMARS has surged due to its successful deployment in Ukraine, prompting Lockheed Martin to double production to 96 launchers in 2024. Countries like Poland, Estonia, and Canada have placed significant orders, while HIMARS has also been utilized in operations against Iran. Despite its effectiveness, challenges remain with ammunition supply, impacting operational capabilities.

The Marine Corps established two new units focused on drone warfare at Twentynine Palms, California, and Quantico, Virginia. The Virginia unit will experiment with counter-drone tactics, while the California unit will develop training for Marines deploying to combat. This initiative aims to adapt to the increasing use of drones in modern warfare.

The Royal Navy is facing a severe readiness crisis in 2026, with both aircraft carriers and all five Astute-class submarines unavailable for operations. The fleet has been significantly reduced, now comprising only about 14 destroyers and frigates, and has fewer ships than the U.S. Coast Guard. The Defence Secretary resigned due to inadequate funding, highlighting the political implications of the Navy's declining capabilities.

The Pentagon is enhancing its detection capabilities for deepfakes but is failing to address the more significant issue of adversaries poisoning AI training data. This vulnerability has been documented by civilian researchers, revealing that disinformation campaigns from countries like Iran and Russia are influencing AI outputs. The report emphasizes the need for data provenance standards and greater awareness of these threats among defense professionals.

The Northrop P-61 Black Widow, a revolutionary night fighter, excelled in WWII combat, particularly in the Pacific Theater. It was equipped with advanced SCR-720 radar, enabling it to intercept enemy bombers effectively. By the end of the war, the P-61 had downed 127 enemy aircraft and played a crucial role in nighttime operations.