Analysis & Reports

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, died at the age of 86 following a major attack by Israel and the United States. His death raises significant questions about the future of the Islamic Republic, as the 88-seat Assembly of Experts will choose his successor. The Iranian government has declared 40 days of mourning and a nationwide public holiday.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, died at the age of 86 following a major attack by Israel and the United States. His death raises significant questions about the future of the Islamic Republic, as the 88-seat Assembly of Experts will choose his successor. The Iranian government has declared 40 days of public mourning and a seven-day nationwide holiday.

China conducted live-fire military exercises in the Yellow Sea and engaged in provocative actions near the Miyako Strait from November 2025 to March 2026. Diplomatic tensions escalated between China and Japan following statements from Japanese officials regarding Taiwan. The U.S. and Japan strengthened their alliance through strategic dialogues addressing regional security concerns.

Tanaka TakashiSun Mar 01 2026Loading...

China has established a robust Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) strategy that protects its aircraft carrier fleet and deters U.S. Navy operations in the Indo-Pacific. This strategy utilizes a dense inventory of Anti-Ship Ballistic Missiles (ASBMs) and hypersonic missiles, forcing U.S. carriers to operate from a distance. The geographical advantages and advanced missile systems give China a significant edge in any potential maritime conflict.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is reported dead, creating a power vacuum in Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) faces disarray, raising the risk of a military junta. Potential successors include Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi and the Iran Freedom Congress, while the IRGC's control over significant wealth complicates the succession. Trump's previous policies may be challenged by a looming insurgency.

President Trump stated on October 28, 2023, that he has multiple 'off-ramps' in the operation against Iran, suggesting options for either prolonged engagement or a swift resolution. He noted that Iran had previously been close to an agreement but withdrew from negotiations. Trump also communicated with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and leaders from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE regarding the situation.

Thousands of U.S. citizens protested in cities including Washington, New York, and Los Angeles on February 28 against military actions by the U.S. and Israel against Iran. Demonstrators criticized the actions as illegal and harmful, calling for peace and an end to military engagement.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran during a Security Council meeting on February 28. He called for an immediate ceasefire and a return to negotiations, warning that the escalating conflict threatens international peace and security. Guterres urged all parties to adhere to international humanitarian law and protect civilians.

Congress is debating a war powers resolution in response to President Trump's military action against Iran. Key members, including Senator Tim Kaine, criticize the strikes as illegal and demand a vote to restrain the president's actions. Republican leaders support the military response, citing threats from Iran. The debate is expected to be largely symbolic, as Trump is likely to veto any resolution passed.

Congress is debating a war powers resolution in response to President Trump's recent military strikes on Iran. Key members are demanding a vote to restrain the president's actions, which they argue are illegal without congressional approval. While Democrats criticize the strikes, Republican leaders support them, citing threats from Iran. The debate tests the constitutional separation of powers regarding military action.

U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth concluded the first phase of the 'Arsenal of Freedom' tour in Camden, Arkansas, on February 27, 2026. He promoted defense manufacturing expansion and emphasized the importance of domestic production for military readiness. During the visit, Hegseth swore in 40 recruits, bringing the total to over 260 enlistees during the tour. He highlighted the role of defense workers in sustaining military capabilities and criticized inefficiencies in the defense industrial base.

The U.S. and Israel launched an air campaign against Iran in 2026, targeting the regime with airstrikes and cruise missiles to achieve regime change. However, airpower lacks the necessary ground forces to ensure political outcomes, and historical precedents suggest that such strategies may not lead to stable governance. The campaign faces significant challenges, including a potential shortage of munitions and the absence of reliable ground allies in Iran.

The CIA published new Persian-language instructions on social media for Iranians wishing to contact the agency secretly. This recruitment effort coincides with a significant U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. If negotiations regarding Tehran's nuclear program fail, President Trump may order military action against Iran. The CIA advised potential contacts to take precautions to protect their identity before reaching out.

U.S. Air Force is conducting airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including IRGC command nodes and nuclear facilities. The operations aim to degrade Iran's military capabilities, but experts caution that airpower alone may not achieve regime change. The Revolutionary Guard's control over various sectors may reinforce the regime's stability in response to external attacks.

The U.S. announced a $12.6 billion investment in surveillance and deterrence operations in the Indo-Pacific on February 24, 2026, amid growing concerns over China's military expansion. This includes the launch of Cobra Gold 2026, a multilateral military exercise in Thailand involving 8,000 personnel from 30 nations. The AUKUS partnership is also progressing with submarine cooperation, enhancing regional security efforts.

Marcus ChenSat Feb 28 2026Loading...

European nations are rapidly developing autonomous military capabilities in response to U.S. defense policy changes and Russian aggression. By 2027, the U.S. expects Europe to take majority responsibility for NATO's defense. The EU has initiated unprecedented financing mechanisms for defense, including the Security Action for Europe initiative, which allocates up to $178 billion for rearmament. Discussions about a European nuclear deterrent are also underway.

Alexandra ReevesSat Feb 28 2026Loading...

The U.S. initiated Operation Epic Fury against Iran in 2026 following the collapse of the JCPOA and the October 7th Crisis. This military intervention marked a shift from a policy of containment to an explicit mandate for regime change, with U.S. airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities amid escalating conflict with Israel. The situation reflects a significant change in U.S. military strategy in the region, positioning the U.S. as a guarantor of military order.

China's Ministry of National Defense accused the United States of undermining nuclear stability in a statement issued on February 28. The ministry responded to U.S. allegations of Chinese nuclear testing, asserting that China maintains a defensive nuclear posture and complies with international commitments. The statement criticized U.S. nuclear policy and modernization efforts, framing the exchange as part of broader disagreements over nuclear transparency and arms control compliance.

The U.S. and Israel are considering airstrikes against Iranian regime officials as part of a strategy for regime change. Historical precedents suggest that without ground forces, achieving a sustainable change may be difficult. Dr. Michael Rubin highlights the challenges of occupying Iran, given its large population and territory, and the potential for the regime to claim victory through endurance.

NATO member states are undergoing a significant transformation in defense policy, aiming to allocate 5% of GDP to defense by 2035. Germany's defense budget exceeded $100 billion in 2025, while France plans €42 billion in military contracts for 2026. The Future Combat Air System (FCAS) faces challenges, and the EU is enhancing its defense initiatives, including substantial support for Ukraine.

Dr. Klaus WeberSat Feb 28 2026Loading...