Analysis & Reports

European Union naval forces are increasing their presence in the Red Sea to over 10 ships as part of Operation Aspidis, responding to escalating Houthi attacks. This decision, made on September 28, 2026, follows Italy's request for reinforcements after its frigate escorted a commercial vessel. The operation aims to secure vital trade routes, but logistical challenges remain in maintaining effective naval operations against Houthi threats.

Ahmed Al-RashidMon Sep 28 2026Loading...

Seven armed groups in Ethiopia, including the TPLF, formed the Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival to oppose Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. This coalition, announced on September 28, 2026, aims to address the fragmentation of the country and could lead to increased military tensions. The Ethiopian government recognizes the coalition's formation but asserts its control over Addis Ababa.

Marie DuboisMon Sep 28 2026Loading...

Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso formed the Sahel States Alliance (AES) after leaving ECOWAS in January 2025. The UN is discussing its reduced presence in the Sahel as local governments assert military sovereignty, following the closure of the MINUSMA mission in late 2023. The AES aims for strategic autonomy amid increasing jihadist activity and Russian political support.

Marie DuboisSun Sep 27 2026Loading...

Togo's Foreign Minister Robert Dussey characterized the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) as a security bulwark against jihadist threats during a speech in New York in September 2026. He emphasized the need for political solidarity to address the instability caused by jihadist groups in neighboring Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Togo aims to navigate its diplomatic relations with the AES while acknowledging the challenges of regional security and the limitations of the AES's operational effectiveness.

Marie DuboisSat Sep 26 2026Loading...

Russia is developing the S-500 air defense system, which poses a significant threat to U.S. and allied aircraft, particularly stealth fighters like the F-22 and F-35. The system is expected to be sold to China and India, enhancing their military capabilities and complicating U.S. strategic planning in the Pacific and Europe. The S-500's operational range is approximately 370 miles, allowing it to monitor airspace effectively.

Diomaye Faye addressed the UN General Assembly in September 2026, calling for enhanced regional cooperation to combat terrorism in the Sahel. He highlighted the recent attack by JNIM on a Malian military camp, which resulted in numerous casualties, underscoring the urgent need for a coordinated security response. Faye's remarks reflect the challenges faced by Senegal and the broader region due to the transnational nature of terrorist threats.

Marie DuboisFri Sep 25 2026Loading...

Saudi Arabia requested Israeli intelligence support through CENTCOM on September 15-16, 2026, to counter Houthi threats and protect its oil facilities and maritime routes. This request highlights the need for enhanced intelligence capabilities following recent attacks on critical infrastructure. The cooperation is intended to provide early warning and improve threat assessment without publicly normalizing relations with Israel.

Ahmed Al-RashidFri Sep 25 2026Loading...

Representatives from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso unified their military efforts under the Sahel Alliance (AES) on September 22, 2026. Turkey is supplying Bayraktar drones to enhance AES's military capabilities, aiming to provide a visible military presence without the political costs of Western deployments. However, the effectiveness of these drones is contingent on integrated intelligence and ground operations to counter groups like JNIM and ISIS.

Marie DuboisWed Sep 23 2026Loading...

Intense fighting occurred between Houthi forces and Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces in Taiz province, resulting in at least 16 deaths and dozens of injuries. The Houthi forces reported over 600 casualties among government troops. Saudi Arabia conducted 936 airstrikes against Houthi positions, while the UK announced it would provide military support to Saudi Arabia. Houthi leaders warned against foreign intervention in the conflict.

South Korea faces military capacity dilemmas as it considers U.S. requests for support in the Strait of Hormuz while managing escalating threats from North Korea. The South Korean Army reported recent missile launches by North Korea, prompting concerns over troop deployment. President Lee Jae Myeong has ruled out war deployment, suggesting instead the extension of the Cheonghae Unit's operations for limited maritime security and humanitarian assistance.

A presumed mutiny was thwarted by military authorities in Niger on September 20, 2026, with Burkina Faso publicly supporting the junta. The incident highlights internal crises affecting the Alliance of Sahel States, raising concerns about military cohesion and operational vulnerabilities in the region. The junta faces the challenge of maintaining state stability while managing internal trust issues among military officers.

Marie DuboisMon Sep 21 2026Loading...

Dwight D. Eisenhower led the largest amphibious invasion in history during World War II and managed a coalition of Allied forces with conflicting interests. His leadership philosophy emphasized persuasion and cooperation, which he applied during critical military operations and as U.S. President. Eisenhower's actions during the Suez Crisis demonstrated his willingness to confront allies to maintain international stability.

Algeria is reassessing its military doctrine in response to security threats from JNIM and ISIS in the Sahel. The country is considering a more active military presence beyond its borders, particularly in the In Guezzam and Agadez regions. This shift is driven by the need to address the growing influence of armed groups and the changing geopolitical landscape in the region. Algeria aims to maintain control over its immediate neighborhood and prevent foreign military presence.

Marie DuboisSun Sep 20 2026Loading...

Houthi forces launched a ballistic missile towards Riyadh on September 19, 2026, which was intercepted by Saudi defenses. This incident marks the first air alert in the capital since July and is viewed as a significant operational and political message. The attack has implications for the Mecca Alliance, as Turkey considers military support for Saudi Arabia amid ongoing regional tensions.

Ahmed Al-RashidSun Sep 20 2026Loading...

Five suspects linked to Ansaru are on trial in Ibadan, Oyo State, for the kidnapping of students and teachers. This marks a significant operational shift for Ansaru, indicating their activities are extending beyond traditional strongholds. The trial reveals the tactical complexities involved in such kidnappings and suggests a growing threat to security in Nigeria's southwestern region.

Marie DuboisSat Sep 19 2026Loading...

Italy announced it will send warships to protect its commercial vessels through Bab el-Mandeb on September 18, 2026, while South Korea reiterated it will not send combat troops to the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi control of Bab el-Mandeb are testing the Gulf's ability to protect its exports. Saudi Arabia is resorting to ship-to-ship transfers to move oil due to threats from Houthi attacks.

Ahmed Al-RashidFri Sep 18 2026Loading...

Algeria and Mali resumed diplomatic dialogue on September 15, 2026, signaling a thaw in relations after months of tension. The two nations aim to enhance cooperation on security issues in the Sahel, recognizing the need for joint efforts to address instability. Algeria's strategic position and local connections may facilitate this cooperation, although the effectiveness will depend on involving local actors in the process.

Marie DuboisTue Sep 15 2026Loading...

Morocco is planning to acquire additional Israeli-made defense systems, enhancing its military capabilities. This move reflects a growing defense cooperation between Morocco and Israel, as reported by credible Israeli sources.

Egypt is increasing its Rafale fleet with a new order for 30 aircraft, bringing the total to 78. The Egyptian Air Force (EAF) has already received eight of these aircraft, with deliveries continuing over the next two years. The deal includes advanced weaponry and reflects Egypt's strategy to replace its aging F-16 fleet. A training agreement with Dassault is also established to support the Rafale operations.

Houthi forces attacked a Saudi military base using drones and missiles and captured Perlin Island on November 11, escalating the conflict in Yemen. The U.S. is facing a dilemma as Saudi Arabia seeks military support while the Houthis threaten international shipping in the Mandeb Strait. U.S. President Trump confirmed discussions with Saudi officials regarding the situation.