Analysis & Reports

The FS Charles de Gaulle (R91) has deployed to the Red Sea after transiting the Suez Canal to support operations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This deployment is part of a broader effort to address significant oil supply disruptions and enhance NATO's strategic options against Russia and China. The carrier, which displaces 42,000 tons and operates a 40-aircraft air wing, represents a shift in France's military posture in the region.

Marco Rubio expressed doubts about NATO's relevance after allies denied U.S. access to bases during the Iran conflict. The U.S. plans to deploy 5,000 additional troops to Poland, coinciding with a withdrawal from Germany. The upcoming NATO summit in Turkey in July is expected to address these tensions and the U.S. military's global commitments.

Libya and Syria participated in Turkey's EFES-2026 Combined Joint Live-Fire Field Exercise, marking the first foreign military exercise for both nations. A total of 502 Libyan troops and approximately 50 Syrian military personnel took part in the event, which concluded on May 21, 2026, near İzmir. The exercise involved training in various military operations and aimed to strengthen military cooperation between Turkey and the two nations.

The U.S. military launched over 200 THAAD interceptors and more than 100 Standard-3 and Standard-6 interceptors from naval vessels in the Mediterranean to defend Israel against Iranian missile attacks. In contrast, Israel fired less than 100 Arrow interceptors and approximately 90 David's Sling interceptors. U.S. officials indicated that the current military operations have strained U.S. missile supplies, raising concerns about future engagements with Iran. Tensions between U.S. and Israeli leadership are reportedly escalating over military strategies.

The U.S. military has launched over 1200 Patriot missiles in the ongoing conflict with Iran, revealing significant issues in military procurement and production speed. Defense Secretary is advocating for a $1.5 trillion budget proposal to address these challenges. Experts express concerns about the military's reliance on outdated technology and the need for fundamental changes in weapon design and production processes.

NATO has not established a concrete plan for potential involvement in ensuring the security of the Strait of Hormuz, as stated by General Greenkiewicz on May 19, 2023. He emphasized that political decisions must precede any formal planning. President Trump has criticized European NATO members for their lack of engagement in military actions against Iran, while France and the UK lead an international coalition for the Strait's security, contingent on the resolution of the Middle East conflict.

China's UN representative called for all parties to fully comply with the Gaza ceasefire agreement during a Security Council meeting on May 21, 2023. He highlighted the critical humanitarian situation in Gaza, with over 870 deaths reported since the ceasefire was established. The representative urged Israel to lift restrictions on humanitarian aid and emphasized the importance of the two-state solution for resolving the Palestinian issue.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov held a phone call with Palestinian Vice President Sheikh on May 21, 2023, to discuss the situation in Gaza. They focused on ensuring a stable ceasefire and accelerating the reconstruction of damaged infrastructure, reaffirming that the two-state solution is the only viable resolution to the Palestinian issue.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that negotiations are currently focused on ending all frontline wars, including those in Lebanon. He dismissed media claims regarding nuclear issues as speculation without credibility. Accurate details about the negotiations will be provided by authorized officials and spokespersons.

The U.S. military's blockade of Iranian ports has forced 94 commercial ships to change their course as of May 21. This action was confirmed by the U.S. Central Command via social media.

The U.S. Navy is currently unable to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz due to capacity limitations, according to Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle. The Navy has maintained a blockade on Iranian maritime traffic since April, successfully redirecting 94 vessels. Ongoing negotiations with Iran are influenced by the blockade's effectiveness, although the Navy faces challenges in conducting escort missions in contested waters.

U.S. Air Force leaders emphasized the critical role of the MQ-9 Reaper in operations against Iran during a congressional hearing on May 20, 2023. They outlined plans for increased funding for unmanned systems, including Collaborative Combat Aircraft, while addressing concerns about the budget allocation for crewed fighters. The Reaper fleet has been reduced to about 135 aircraft due to operational losses, highlighting the need for modernization and readiness in future military capabilities.

Iranian President Pezeshkian met with Commander Hatami in Tehran on May 21, 2023, emphasizing the government's full support for the Iranian Armed Forces. He stated that the military is in a high state of readiness to counter any threats and that they will respond decisively to aggression.

General Asim Munir of the Pakistan Army visited Tehran on May 21, 2026, to mediate between the U.S. and Iran. This visit is part of efforts to address ongoing tensions and potential military responses. Iran is wary of Gulf mediation due to U.S. military assets in the region, while Pakistan seeks to establish itself as a neutral military intermediary.

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U.S. and Israeli leaders are divided over the approach to Iran, with mediators from Qatar and Pakistan attempting to facilitate an agreement. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu expresses skepticism about negotiations, favoring military action to weaken Iran. President Trump believes a deal is achievable but is ready for military action if needed. The situation is evolving as discussions continue in Tehran regarding Iran's nuclear program and related issues.

On May 20, 2023, the Chinese government called for stronger actions to protect civilians affected by armed conflicts, highlighting that over 37,000 civilians died and more than 100 million were displaced globally last year. The Chinese UN representative emphasized the urgency of political solutions to ongoing conflicts, particularly in regions like Iran and Gaza, to alleviate civilian suffering.

On May 20, 2026, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps announced the coordination of 26 vessels' passage through the Strait of Hormuz, establishing a new licensing system for maritime traffic. This development indicates a shift in control from military closure to administrative oversight, raising concerns about the implications for global energy and food markets. The situation reflects ongoing tensions between Iran and the U.S. regarding maritime security and trade routes.

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The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) is preparing to withdraw as its mandate expires at the end of 2026, following the loss of six peacekeepers amid renewed violence. The UN Security Council, influenced by U.S. pressure, adopted Resolution 2790 to end the mission, which has been crucial for monitoring hostilities and supporting the Lebanese Armed Forces. Analysts warn that the Lebanese military is not equipped to handle the security situation, raising concerns about future stability in the region.

Leonardo signed a major contract with EDGE Group’s Abu Dhabi Ship Building (ADSB) on May 20, 2026, to provide next-generation naval combat systems for the Kuwait Navy's 'Al Dorra' missile boat program. Valued at around €320 million, this agreement enhances their strategic partnership and aims to establish a future joint venture. The collaboration has previously delivered over 25 naval units, showcasing a successful track record in defense.

Israeli officials assess that the U.S. is still inclined to restart military actions against Iran despite President Trump's announcement to cancel such actions on May 18. Joint preparations for potential military action by Israel and the U.S. are reportedly complete, awaiting Trump's decision amid ongoing negotiations with leaders from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.