Analysis & Reports

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is reported dead, creating a power vacuum in Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) faces disarray, raising the risk of a military junta. Potential successors include Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi and the Iran Freedom Congress, while the IRGC's control over significant wealth complicates the succession. Trump's previous policies may be challenged by a looming insurgency.

President Trump stated on October 28, 2023, that he has multiple 'off-ramps' in the operation against Iran, suggesting options for either prolonged engagement or a swift resolution. He noted that Iran had previously been close to an agreement but withdrew from negotiations. Trump also communicated with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and leaders from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE regarding the situation.

Congress is debating a war powers resolution in response to President Trump's recent military strikes on Iran. Key members are demanding a vote to restrain the president's actions, which they argue are illegal without congressional approval. While Democrats criticize the strikes, Republican leaders support them, citing threats from Iran. The debate tests the constitutional separation of powers regarding military action.

Congress is debating a war powers resolution in response to President Trump's military action against Iran. Key members, including Senator Tim Kaine, criticize the strikes as illegal and demand a vote to restrain the president's actions. Republican leaders support the military response, citing threats from Iran. The debate is expected to be largely symbolic, as Trump is likely to veto any resolution passed.

The U.S. and Israel launched an air campaign against Iran in 2026, targeting the regime with airstrikes and cruise missiles to achieve regime change. However, airpower lacks the necessary ground forces to ensure political outcomes, and historical precedents suggest that such strategies may not lead to stable governance. The campaign faces significant challenges, including a potential shortage of munitions and the absence of reliable ground allies in Iran.

The CIA published new Persian-language instructions on social media for Iranians wishing to contact the agency secretly. This recruitment effort coincides with a significant U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. If negotiations regarding Tehran's nuclear program fail, President Trump may order military action against Iran. The CIA advised potential contacts to take precautions to protect their identity before reaching out.

U.S. Air Force is conducting airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, including IRGC command nodes and nuclear facilities. The operations aim to degrade Iran's military capabilities, but experts caution that airpower alone may not achieve regime change. The Revolutionary Guard's control over various sectors may reinforce the regime's stability in response to external attacks.

The U.S. initiated Operation Epic Fury against Iran in 2026 following the collapse of the JCPOA and the October 7th Crisis. This military intervention marked a shift from a policy of containment to an explicit mandate for regime change, with U.S. airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities amid escalating conflict with Israel. The situation reflects a significant change in U.S. military strategy in the region, positioning the U.S. as a guarantor of military order.

The U.S. and Israel are considering airstrikes against Iranian regime officials as part of a strategy for regime change. Historical precedents suggest that without ground forces, achieving a sustainable change may be difficult. Dr. Michael Rubin highlights the challenges of occupying Iran, given its large population and territory, and the potential for the regime to claim victory through endurance.

China authorized the transfer of carrier-killer missiles to Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, significantly narrowing the diplomatic window for the U.S. and Israel. This development prompted military preparations and actions by both nations in response to perceived threats from Iran's naval capabilities. Diplomatic efforts in Muscat and Geneva were undermined as tensions escalated, leading to a preemptive military response.

President Trump ordered a full assault on Iran in 2026, utilizing USAF B-21 Raiders and Navy Carrier Strike Groups to target Iranian defenses. The operation aims for regime change, with potential ground troop involvement if internal uprisings fail. The campaign risks escalating into a larger conflict, with Iranian proxies possibly retaliating against U.S. forces. The U.S. public remains largely uninformed about the war's objectives and implications.

U.S. and Israeli forces conducted airstrikes on Iran on Saturday, prompting emergency security meetings among European leaders. French President Macron called for a U.N. Security Council meeting, while the European Union urged restraint and diplomatic engagement. The attacks have raised fears of a broader conflict in the Middle East, with various leaders condemning the unilateral military action and calling for negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program.

U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran, prompting emergency meetings among European leaders on Saturday. French President Macron called for a U.N. Security Council meeting, while leaders from Germany and the U.K. discussed the escalating situation. The strikes have raised fears of a broader conflict, with various international leaders condemning the actions and calling for restraint and negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear program.

Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez condemned unilateral military actions by the U.S. and Israel, urging immediate de-escalation and diplomatic dialogue. He expressed concerns over rising instability in the Middle East and called for respect for international law. Sánchez also condemned actions by Iran, emphasizing the need for a lasting political solution in the region.

On the 28th, Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement urging citizens to report any suspicious activities, including espionage, due to ongoing aggression from the U.S. and Israel. The judiciary will impose severe penalties on those collaborating with enemies during wartime.

The U.S. approved a $280 million Foreign Military Sale to Jordan for Ku Band Multi-Function Radio Frequency System (KuMRFS) radars and related equipment on February 26, 2026. This sale aims to enhance Jordan's operational readiness and support multinational security operations linked to U.S. Central Command. The package includes various command and control systems and supporting equipment, with RTX Missile Defense Technologies identified as the principal contractor.

Iranian officials announced that all commanders of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army are currently safe and healthy. They urged the public not to believe false rumors spread by hostile media about casualties among Iranian officials, including senior members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Israeli intelligence assessed that the assassination attempts on Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei and President Raisi by the U.S. and Israel have failed. Iranian officials confirmed that both leaders are safe, indicating the unsuccessful nature of the operation.

Yousef Pezeshkian confirmed the safety of his father, Iranian President Pezeshkian, and several senior officials on social media. He stated that assassination attempts against them have failed, ensuring their security. This information was reported on the 28th.

The Israel Defense Forces issued an urgent evacuation warning to civilians near Iranian military facilities in Iran on Saturday. This warning was part of efforts to reduce civilian exposure to potential military strikes amid ongoing military escalation involving Israel, Iran, and the United States. The IDF urged immediate evacuation for safety reasons.