2026 Japan's New FFM Export Negotiations Shake Up New Zealand Navy's Two-Ship Update

Just before the Shangri-La Dialogue begins in Singapore, what caught my attention was not the speeches at the podium, but the scheduled contacts around the venue between Defense Minister Koizumi, New Zealand's Defense Minister Peeni Henare, and Australia's Defense Minister Richard Marles. According to reports, Japan is preparing to enter formal negotiations for the New FFM, an improved version of the Mogami class adopted by Australia, with New Zealand.

What the Numbers of the New FFM Indicate

According to Australian government documents, the improved Mogami class is 142 meters long, has a full-load displacement of 6,200 tons, a speed exceeding 30 knots, a maximum range of 10,000 nautical miles, and a crew of 90. In terms of armament, it is equipped with a 32-cell Mk 41 VLS, anti-ship missiles, a 5-inch gun, a short-range air defense system, towed sonar, and AESA radar. It is not just a patrol vessel but a frigate capable of simultaneously conducting anti-submarine warfare and local air defense.

The New Zealand Navy's issues are not limited to a lack of firepower. The ANZAC-class vessels Te Kaha and Te Mana, which entered service in 1997 and 1999, have taken on responsibilities in the vast exclusive economic zone, the South Pacific, the Southern Ocean, and even coalition missions. For a small navy, the number of 90 crew members is as significant as the number of missile cells. In a navy facing personnel shortages, there is a risk that even if ships are purchased, they cannot be operated.

The Choice of a Common Ship for Japan, Australia, and New Zealand

Australia is developing 11 general-purpose frigates under the SEA 3000 program, with the first three being built in Japan, planning to receive the first ship in 2029 and begin operations in 2030. If Wellington chooses the same class, a common area of escort vessels among Japan, Australia, and New Zealand will emerge in the southwest Pacific. This is not an expansion of treaty alliances but a practical maritime collaboration sharing logistics, training, software, munitions, and maintenance procedures.

From the perspective of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, this also extends the outer edge of SLOC (Sea Lines of Communication) defense southward. The activities of the Chinese Navy do not conclude at the first island chain. In the event of a Taiwan contingency or a South China Sea crisis, the rear supply lines to the eastern coast of Australia, around New Zealand, and to the islands of the South Pacific will also become targets of political pressure and information warfare. A common ship will serve as the means to see "the same picture" in that vast maritime area.

Remaining Uncertainties

However, excessive expectations should be avoided. The New FFM is expected to compete with the UK's Type 31, and there remains a consideration on the New Zealand side to prioritize Commonwealth-based maintenance infrastructure. Furthermore, Japan also faces challenges with a domestic construction plan of 12 ships, construction slots for Australia, and personnel shortages in the Maritime Self-Defense Force. While success in exports would be a victory for the defense industry, it could paradoxically pressure the speed of domestic fleet updates.

In my view, the essence of these negotiations is not whether Japan will sell ships. It is whether Japan is prepared to offer its shipbuilding capabilities to the operational design of a navy that shares interests, even if it is not an ally. The true test will be reflected in the speed of maintenance and information sharing connecting Yokosuka, Perth, and Auckland after a deal is reached.

Key Reference Information

• Army Recognition, May 27, 2026, Report on New FFM Export Negotiations with New Zealand
• Australian Department of Defence SEA 3000 Documents, Key Specifications of the Improved Mogami Class
• Australian Department of Defence, April 22, 2026, Announcement of Mogami Class Frigate Contract
• Jiji Press/Nippon.com, May 26, 2026, Report on Defense Minister Koizumi's Attendance at the Shangri-La Dialogue