A Historical Shift in Japan's Defense Policy: Realizing Stand-Off Defense Capabilities and Restructuring the Security Paradigm

On March 31, 2026, Japan's Ministry of Defense announced one of the most groundbreaking equipment introductions in recent years. The "Type 25 Anti-Ship Guided Missile" was deployed for the first time at the Ground Self-Defense Force's Kengun Base in Kumamoto Prefecture. This system, developed under the former name "Capability Improvement Type 12 Anti-Ship Guided Missile," has achieved a remarkable extension of its range from approximately 200 kilometers to about 1,000 kilometers. On the same day, the deployment of a system with a range of several hundred kilometers, referred to as the "Type 25 High-Speed Glide Missile," was also announced, marking the first concrete manifestation of Japan's counterattack capability. This deployment can be seen as the first significant achievement towards the goal of building stand-off defense capabilities outlined in the "Three Security Documents" formulated in December 2022.

The technical features of the Type 25 Anti-Ship Guided Missile go beyond mere range extension. This missile employs a stealth design that takes low detectability into account, making it difficult for enemy radar to detect. Furthermore, noteworthy is its capability known as "Update Command (UTDC)," which allows for target changes during flight. By sending commands from ground control to the missile via satellite communication, it is possible to dynamically adjust the flight path against moving maritime targets. This capability holds extremely important significance for island defense in the First Island Chain. The fact that missiles launched from Kengun Base in Kyushu can track and attack enemy vessels navigating the East China Sea in real-time marks a qualitative turning point in Japan's defense of the southwestern islands.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi established an expert meeting on April 27, 2026, to review security and defense policies. This policy review comes amid increasing military pressure from China, North Korea, and Russia. At the beginning of the meeting, Prime Minister Takaichi stated, "The security environment is becoming more severe than ever," indicating a recognition that there are limits to building defense capabilities independently. The establishment of this expert meeting is seen as an intention to further accelerate the fundamental review process of defense policy that has continued since the formulation of the Three Security Documents in 2022. Particularly noteworthy is the indication that the meeting will also discuss the interpretation of Article 9 of the Constitution and the scope of collective self-defense rights.

At the same time, significant changes are occurring in Japan's defense equipment transfer policy. In April 2026, the Japanese government revised the operational guidelines of the "Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment," easing restrictions on the export of weapons with lethal capabilities. Previously, only non-lethal equipment such as rescue, transport, surveillance, and mine clearance was subject to export, but under the new guidelines, a broader range of defense equipment can now be transferred to 17 countries that have signed defense equipment transfer agreements with Japan (expected to expand to nearly 20 countries). Although review by the National Security Council and post-reporting to the Diet are mandatory, this policy shift represents a clear turning point in Japan's post-war defense history. Philippine Secretary of National Defense Gilbert Teodoro welcomed this change, stating, "It provides access to the highest quality defense materials, strengthens domestic resilience, and contributes to regional stability through deterrence." Joint training involving the Ground Self-Defense Force's Type 88 Anti-Ship Guided Missile and the Philippine Marine Corps' BrahMos missile is also planned for the Balikatan 2026 exercise, advancing the concretization of Japan-Philippines defense cooperation.

At the forefront of technological development, the Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA) is accelerating the development of next-generation coastal defense missile systems. The "New Type Anti-Ship/Surface-to-Surface Precision Guided Missile," which began development in 2025, is expected to surpass the Type 25 Anti-Ship Guided Missile in guidance accuracy and target penetration capability. According to ATLA, this system is said to enable "more precise target classification and aiming point designation," possessing the ability to identify vulnerabilities in enemy vessels and conduct precision attacks on specific locations. Additionally, it is expected to be equipped with the capability to attack critical land targets such as airports, ports, and command and control facilities.

In a longer-term perspective, the development of hypersonic guided missiles flying at speeds exceeding Mach 5 is underway. This missile is equipped with a propulsion system called Dual-Mode Scramjet (DMSJ), which combines ramjet and scramjet technologies to achieve high propulsion efficiency across a wide speed range from Mach 3 to 15. ATLA positions this missile as a "game changer," stating that it will make interception by existing air defense systems extremely difficult by flying at high altitudes at hypersonic speeds. Various attack patterns are planned, including the destruction of aircraft carrier flight decks with armor-piercing warheads and the suppression of ground forces with explosively formed penetrators (EFPs). Development began in 2023, with a goal of operational deployment by 2032, but reports indicate delays in achieving the necessary technical milestones for mass production.

On the other hand, plans for the deployment of the Type 03 Medium-Range Surface-to-Air Guided Missile on Yonaguni Island are being advanced through explanatory meetings with local residents. The Defense Bureau emphasized to residents that this system has a purely defensive nature and does not possess counterattack capabilities. Yonaguni Island, located at the westernmost tip of the southwestern islands, is approximately 110 kilometers from Taiwan and holds significant military strategic value. However, local concerns about the enhancement of defense facilities remain strong, and the government is pressured to balance national security needs with community understanding.

The backdrop of the diplomatic crisis between China and Japan that began in November 2025 cannot be overlooked. The People's Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command conducted large-scale military exercises around Taiwan, named "Mission of Justice 2025," in December 2025, and in January 2026, the Japanese government requested fishing vessels to refrain from approaching the Senkaku Islands, as reported by Reuters. A spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Defense criticized Japan's military expansion ambitions and expressed concerns about the regional arms race. This tension between China and Japan strengthens the government's argument for the necessity of enhancing Japan's defense capabilities, while also inviting critical views that it may undermine regional stability.

Japan's defense policy is clearly shifting from the long-standing framework of "defensive defense" to a more proactive approach to building deterrence. The deployment of the Type 25 Anti-Ship Guided Missile is a symbolic first step, representing not just the deployment of weapons, but also a multifaceted strategic change that includes deepening the Japan-U.S. alliance, expanding security cooperation with regional partners, and strengthening Japan's own defense industrial base. Under the Takaichi administration, defense spending has reached 1.4 percent of GDP, and according to SIPRI's April 2026 data, Japan's military expenditure has reached record levels. However, whether this enhancement of defense capabilities will contribute to regional stability or provoke a new arms race remains an open question. The answer will depend on how Japan operates the capabilities it builds and how it fosters trust with neighboring countries through diplomacy.