"Deep Dive: Accelerating Constitutional Amendments and Military Expansion, Japan Opens the 'Pandora's Box'"

[Global Times Comprehensive Report] Editor's Note: The continued rightward shift in Japanese society has led to an overwhelming victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the recent House of Representatives election. As Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi prepares to begin her second term, she may further push Japan to the right through constitutional amendments and other measures. What steps might the Takaichi government take to transform Japan into a "militarily capable nation"? Will these measures be effectively constrained? What risks will the "Pandora's box" opened by the Takaichi government bring to peace in Asia and the world? In the next report on "Beware of Japan's Accelerating Rightward Shift," we will analyze these issues one by one.

"Transforming Japan from a 'Peaceful Nation' to a Military Power"

"Sanae Takaichi is seizing the opportunity to accelerate the revision of the 'Three Security Documents' and hasten the rightward shift." According to the South Korean newspaper Hankook Ilbo, on February 9, the day after the House of Representatives election, Takaichi stated that she would expedite the revision of the "Three Security Documents" to fundamentally strengthen security policies. She has recently made it clear that she will amend the "Three Security Documents," which serve as the cornerstone of Japan's security policy, within this year. In October of last year, Takaichi publicly stated the need to re-examine the provisions regarding the prohibition of nuclear weapons under the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles," which has led to speculation that U.S. nuclear weapons may enter Japan.

Regarding constitutional amendments, Takaichi stated on February 9 that she would create conditions to facilitate a national referendum as soon as possible. Japan's Kyodo News reported that during her recent campaign, Takaichi suggested that the Self-Defense Forces should be written into the constitution, positioning them as a "capable organization" through constitutional amendments. The Japan Innovation Party, which has formed a ruling coalition with the LDP, advocates for the removal of the second clause of Article 9, which prohibits maintaining military capabilities, and the inclusion of a "National Defense Force." The LDP and the Japan Innovation Party have expressed their intention to establish emergency provisions in the constitution. Whether a "Drafting Committee" will be set up within the constitutional review committees of both houses of the Diet is currently the focus. If the LDP can reclaim the presidency of the House of Representatives' constitutional review committee from the opposition, it may achieve this more quickly.

Xiáng Hàoyǔ, a distinguished researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies of the China Institute of International Studies, stated in an interview with a Global Times reporter that following the overwhelming victory in the House of Representatives election, the Takaichi government is highly likely to accelerate the transformation of Japan from a "peaceful nation" to a "military power." Chen Yang, a visiting researcher at the Japan Research Center of Liaoning University, analyzed that on the constitutional amendment agenda, Japan may shift from long-term reliance on "interpretative amendments" to more direct "explicit amendments." The Takaichi government may focus on expanding the scope of collective self-defense, lowering the conditions for military deployment; adding "emergency provisions" to strengthen executive power in crisis situations. If these measures are passed, it will signify a historic shift in Japan's post-war defense policy from the principle of "defensive defense" to a strategy of "proactive defense" and "regional deterrence," which is of symbolic significance.

The risk of loosening the semantics of the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles" cannot be ignored. Chen Yang stated that while the likelihood of Japan possessing nuclear weapons in the short term is relatively low, the public discourse surrounding "nuclear sharing" is expanding, and potential future changes may include institutionalizing discussions on "nuclear sharing" and making technical adjustments to the interpretation of "not introducing nuclear weapons." Such changes may not necessarily breach the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles," but they will alter the political context of Japan's nuclear policy, and their symbolic significance and strategic signals should not be underestimated.

"The Result of Multiple Complex Interwoven Factors"

After conducting a survey of the 465 individuals elected in the Japanese House of Representatives election, Kyodo News found that the proportion of respondents who "tend to agree" and "agree" with writing the Self-Defense Forces into the constitution was 81.1%. A poll released by the Yomiuri Shimbun showed that 55% of respondents answered "very good" regarding the LDP's overwhelming victory in the House of Representatives election. These surveys reflect that the accelerating rightward trend exists not only in Japanese politics but also in civil society.

Da Zhigang, a researcher at the Northeast Asia Research Institute of the Heilongjiang Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed for the Global Times that Japan's rapid rightward shift is not merely an internal political issue but the result of a complex interplay of historical and current factors, domestic and international dynamics, and geopolitical and regional influences.

The prevalence of historical revisionism is one of the tumors leading to the sustained rightward shift in Japanese society over the decades. After World War II, the United States initially promoted demilitarization and democratization reforms in Japan, but after the outbreak of the Cold War, Washington turned Japan into a frontline against communism, significantly relaxing restrictions, resulting in the unaddressed war crimes of Japanese aggression. This led to the resurgence of right-wing forces in Japan, which spread erroneous historical views, causing the Japanese public's understanding of World War II history to increasingly deviate from the truth. A poll conducted by Japan's NHK last year showed that only 35% of respondents agreed with the view that "the previous war was an act of aggression by Japan against its Asian neighbors," while 16% disagreed, and as many as 48% answered "don't know." Regarding the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, 67% of respondents claimed they "cannot forgive to this day."

The acceleration of Japan's rightward shift is also related to the government's deliberate use of sensitive international situations to create excuses for advancing various measures. Recent international situations, including U.S.-European relations, the Greenland issue, U.S.-Canada relations, and the Panama Canal issue, have all been sensationalized by Japan as narratives of "self-defense only," emphasizing the excessive uncertainty of the United States.

The overall adjustment of the U.S. national security strategy has also provided opportunities for Japan. As the U.S. strategic focus shifts to the Western Hemisphere, Japan is expected to take on more responsibilities. At the same time, questions about whether Japan can receive genuine protection from the U.S. and whether the U.S. can fulfill its alliance commitments have become reasons for Japan to deliberately amplify the impact of international situations and great power competition to promote rapid rightward shifts domestically. Japan has also used the rise of China to create security anxieties, with China's normal military development being defined as a "threat" in the eyes of Japanese media and conservative forces, and issues like the Taiwan Strait situation being used by the Japanese government as excuses for constitutional amendments, military expansion, building counterattack capabilities, and revising national security strategies.

"Could Bring Japan Back to the 1930s"

"Some believe that Takaichi's government's hardline foreign policy could bring Japan back to the 1930s." This is what Professor Brown of Temple University wrote on the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace website. Many of the policies of the Takaichi cabinet are similar to the trends of the pre-World War II Japanese government. Xiáng Hàoyǔ explained that in the 1930s, Japan experienced a rise in populism and a wave of radical military expansion in the face of economic crises and changes in the international order.

Da Zhigang analyzed for the reporter that, on the ideological level, Takaichi's victory is the result of the interaction of nationalism, populism, and historical revisionism, which is similar to the atmosphere created in Japanese society before the invasion in World War II, promoting extreme nationalism and specific historical understandings. On the political structural level, before World War II, the rise of military power in Japan controlled the civilian government, pushing the country towards fascism, synchronously abolishing democratic constraints with Germany and Italy, superficially maintaining a multi-party system while effectively canceling party politics and forming a one-party rule; today, Japan has established a pattern of one strong and many weak, with a clear trend towards forced constitutional amendments, evident expansion of collective self-defense rights, development of offensive capabilities, and breaking free from constraints, resembling the pre-war situation.

On the level of paths and excuses, Da Zhigang stated that before World War II, Japan sensationalized the "ABCD encirclement" (ABCD referring to the United States, Britain, China, and the Netherlands) as a justification for expansion into neighboring regions and Southeast Asia, citing resource scarcity and geographical survival theory; now, Japan sensationalizes "China threat," the Russia-Ukraine conflict, etc., as reasons for national security and U.S.-Japan alliance responsibilities, attempting to intervene in the Taiwan Strait issue and cooperate with the U.S. to build an "Asian version of NATO." Both before World War II and now, Japan relies on exaggerating external "threats" and creating panic to provide legitimacy for its military expansion.

On the military posture level, pre-war Japan adopted a fully offensive strategy, infiltrating and expanding in its vicinity; post-war Japan was originally defensive, but is now shifting towards an offensive strategy, breaking through Article 9 of the constitution while also breaching international order. Da Zhigang emphasized that pre-war Japan's military expansion was reflected in the development of its navy and air force, its withdrawal from the League of Nations, challenging the Versailles-Washington system, and launching the war of aggression against China and the Pacific War; now, Japan is breaking through the post-war Yalta system and peace order, specifically manifested in breaking the restrictions of the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation on Japan's defense, transforming its defensive posture into a preemptive "counterattack capability," essentially constructing offensive military capabilities.

"Will Lead to Structural Tensions in the Entire East Asian Security Environment"

The accelerated rightward shift and military expansion policies of the Japanese government have raised concerns among other countries. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated on January 20 that Japan is exhibiting certain negative trends related to some political forces' desire to restore militarization. Lavrov accused the Takaichi government of attempting to amend Japan's "peace constitution" and enhance offensive military capabilities.

Yoo Soo-geun, director of the East Asia Institute and president of the Korea-China Global Association, told a Global Times reporter that if the Takaichi government further accelerates its rightward policies, even promoting military expansion and constitutional amendments, it will not only change domestic policies in Japan but also lead to structural tensions in the entire East Asian security environment. The enhancement of military power, combined with historical recognition issues, may provoke distrust and vigilance among neighboring countries, trigger an arms race, increase the risk of accidental conflicts, and compress the space for regional cooperation. The South Korean newspaper Hankook Ilbo recently published several articles emphasizing the potential dangers posed by the recent House of Representatives election results and the Takaichi government's rightward policies. The media stated that in the long run, the "strong Takaichi" system will inevitably cast a "shadow" over Korea-Japan relations, and South Korea must closely guard against related negative impacts.

Although the LDP achieved a great victory in the House of Representatives election, Takaichi's radical measures have also raised considerable concerns within Japan. Kyodo News recently stated that the acceleration of Japan's rightward shift has become a hidden worry. Even among Takaichi's supporters, there are signs of concern regarding her hawkish stance. Hiroshi Shiratori, a political science professor at Hosei University, told a Global Times reporter that there are already citizens on Japanese social media worried that Japan will gradually become a war nation.

February 11 is Japan's "National Foundation Day." On this day, citizens in many places in Japan held rallies opposing constitutional amendments. At the "Constitutional Protection Peace Forum" held in Kagoshima City, Professor Izumi Kaoru of Kyushu University stated that the recent dissolution of the House of Representatives violates Article 7 of the constitution, and even if the ruling party wins a great victory, it cannot justify constitutional amendments. He also raised deeper concerns: if Article 9 of the constitution is amended within a few years, the traditional constitutional protection movement will face the strategic dilemma of "how to continue protecting the constitution after the amendment," at which point the focus of constitutional protection will shift from "the text itself" to "the spirit of the constitution." Members of seven groups participated in a rally held in Morioka City, Iwate Prefecture. The organizing group of the event has made it clear that it does not allow the Self-Defense Forces to be written into the constitution.

On February 7, the "National Liaison Council of Children of Atomic Bomb Survivors" held a conference in Hiroshima City and passed a resolution demanding that the Japanese government join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. Regarding the government's discussion of re-examining the "Three Non-Nuclear Principles," the group expressed strong opposition.

Regarding whether Japan can successfully amend the constitution, Koichi Nakano, a political science professor at Sophia University, told reporters that Japan operates under a bicameral system, and the ruling coalition formed by the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party does not hold a majority in the House of Councillors, so it has not completely lost checks and balances. Chen Yang stated that Japan's pacifist tradition still has a broad social foundation. If the constitutional amendment enters the referendum stage, the opposing forces may be re-mobilized. The success or failure of the constitutional amendment referendum will depend on voter turnout, the priority of economic issues, and the attitudes of the younger generation. If improvements in people's livelihoods lag behind, the logic of "security first" may encounter practical constraints.

Conclusion:

The LDP's victory is not merely a single electoral event but a concentrated projection of the deep evolution of Japanese society and political ecology. This trend of "internal dynamism" and "external traction" overlapping not only signifies a shift in Japan's post-war peace trajectory but may also plunge Asia and the world into a dual shock of escalating security dilemmas and the reignition of historical issues. As Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated, China, along with all peace-loving countries, must work together to curb the ambitions of Japan's right-wing forces to promote "re-militarization" and jointly safeguard the hard-won results of World War II and world peace.

[Global Times Special Correspondents in Japan: Shao Nan; Global Times Special Correspondents in South Korea: Mang Jiuchen; Global Times Reporters: Li Meng, Xing Xiaojing; Global Times Special Correspondent: Sun Mo]