In 2026, Japan's Type-25 Anti-Ship Missile Makes Its Debut at Keen Sword, 1000 km Range Changes the Defense of the Southwestern Islands
Tanaka TakashiJapan's Type-25 Anti-Ship Missile to Participate for the First Time in 2026 Keen Sword, 1000 km Range to Change Defense of the Southwestern Islands
During the Japan-U.S. joint integrated exercise Keen Sword scheduled from October 19 to 29, the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force's Type-25 surface-to-ship guided missile will participate in a large-scale exercise for the first time. According to Kyodo News, the missile will move from the Kumamoto Ken-gun garrison to the Oyanohara training area in the same prefecture, and live firing is not expected; instead, it will likely focus on sharing target information and confirming launch procedures with the U.S. military.
More Difficult than "Firing" a Missile
The Type-25 is a stand-off weapon developed from the conventional Type 12 surface-to-ship guided missile, with a range of approximately 1,000 kilometers. As reported by Mainichi Shimbun, the core of this training is not the launch itself. It is about how quickly the launch unit can connect the target information it obtains with the U.S. military's ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) and command systems. Even with an extended range, if the target's location is outdated, the deterrent effect will not be as significant as the numbers suggest.
New Division of Roles Between Japan and the U.S. Visible from Yonaguni Island
According to Defense News, this year's Keen Sword will see the deployment of the U.S. Marine Corps' NMESIS anti-ship system and MADIS air defense system for the first time on Yonaguni Island, located about 110 kilometers from Taiwan. The U.S. Army's HIMARS will also be moved to Ishigaki Island, while Japan plans to incorporate the Type-25, Type 88 surface-to-ship guided missile, and Type 03 medium-range surface-to-air guided missile modification into the training. The concept of denying maritime areas with ground-launched systems dispersed across islands, rather than a structure that prominently features an aircraft carrier strike group, has become clearer.
This marks a shift from the traditional role of "Japan supporting the U.S. military." Japan will provide sensors, supply bases, and missile units in the southwestern islands, while the U.S. military will combine systems like NMESIS, HIMARS, and Typhon. While this combination of capabilities is rational, it simultaneously highlights vulnerabilities related to ammunition resupply, repositioning of launchers, and the use of civilian ports and roads.
Political Risks Remaining Behind the Deterrent
Yonaguni Town has expressed concerns about the transportation of large equipment and the use of civilian infrastructure. Although the Ministry of Defense is managing the scale of the training, if it exceeds the island's capacity to accommodate, there is a possibility of losing support from the residents. Whether China will respond militarily is not the only concern; the ability to continue exercises within Japan will also influence the effectiveness of a distributed defense.
In my view, the litmus test for Keen Sword 2026 is not the range of 1,000 kilometers. It is whether target information, launch orders, resupply, and civilian adjustments can be connected within a single practical timeline. Even with an increase in missiles, if decision-making and resupply are slow, the southwestern islands could become isolated fixed targets rather than enhanced launch sites.
Main Sources
Japan's Type-25 anti-ship missile participated in the Keen Sword joint military exercise with the U.S. from October 19 to 29, 2026. The exercise focused on information sharing and launch procedures rather than live firing. U.S. forces deployed NMESIS and HIMARS systems in the region, while Japan integrated various missile systems into the training. Concerns were raised about the local infrastructure's ability to support the military activities.
- Japan's Type-25 anti-ship missile will participate in the Keen Sword exercise for the first time.
- The missile has a range of approximately 1,000 kilometers.
- The exercise will involve coordination with U.S. military ISR and command systems.
- U.S. forces will deploy NMESIS and HIMARS systems in the region.
- Concerns exist regarding the local infrastructure's capacity to support military operations.