The JASDF F-2 is Equipped with the 25SSM Air-Launched Variant for the First Time, Changing Southwest Defense with a 1000 km Strike Capability

A dual-seat F-2B test aircraft took off from Gifu Air Base, with two unfamiliar large gray missiles hanging from the inner pylons of its wings. According to a photo reported by TWZ on July 30, the aircraft is the JASDF Flight Development and Test Group's F-2B 68-8101, and it is said that another F-2 prototype followed. Although the Ministry of Defense has not officially disclosed the name at this time, considering the shape, timing, and mounting position, it is highly likely to be the 25-type anti-ship guided missile, or the 25SSM air-launched variant.

What was seen is more than just a mounting test

The missile visible in the photo is clearly larger than the conventional 93-type air-to-ship guided missile ASM-2 and the ramjet-powered ASM-3. Its elongated body, folded main wings on top, cruciform tail, and angular cross-section are typical of a cruise missile designed for low detectability. Additionally, a structure resembling an air intake can be seen on the lower rear, suggesting that it is not a high-speed terminal attack type, but rather a standoff weapon designed for subsonic flight over long durations.

Importantly, the F-2 remains at the center of Japan's anti-ship strike system. While the F-35A has plans to carry the JSM and the F-15J is set to carry the JASSM, the potential for upgrading the F-2 as a domestically produced aircraft that can be operated in numbers around the Nansei Islands is still significant. The fact that the new missile is being tested on the F-2 is not a temporary measure to fill the gap until the GCAP, but an attempt to directly connect long-range strike capabilities to the current air power.

The New Sense of Distance Created by the 25SSM's Range

According to Naval News, the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force officially deployed the improved 12-type anti-ship guided missile as the 25-type anti-ship guided missile on March 31, extending its range to approximately 1000 km. Given that the conventional 12-type has a range of about 200 km and the F-2's ASM-2 has a range of about 180 km, the tactical map will be fundamentally different based on these simple numbers. The Ministry of Defense plans to introduce both the ship-launched and air-launched variants of the 25SSM by fiscal year 2027.

• Potential launch platforms: JASDF F-2, with future expansion possibilities to other aircraft types
• Estimated range: Approximately 1000 km class, in line with the 25SSM family
• Mission: In addition to anti-ship attacks, capabilities for counterattacks against fixed targets and launch sites
• Guidance: GPS/INS and terminal phase radar guidance are considered likely, but unconfirmed

However, reading this number as "Japan can attack all of East Asia" is a rough interpretation. For air-launched variants, the operational radius of the launch platform, refueling, electronic warfare support, and limits on approaching enemy air defense zones are always constraints. Rather, the essence lies in the distance the F-2 can achieve to launch from outside the enemy fleet's air defense zone. Considering the Chinese Navy's Type 055 destroyers and carrier strike groups, this is not just about the missile itself, but also involves issues of information connectivity with P-1 patrol aircraft, E-767 early warning control aircraft, and U.S. ISR assets.

Operational Gaps Remaining in the Japan-U.S. Alliance

As a former member of the Maritime Self-Defense Force, what concerns me more than the strike capability itself is the speed of target information updates. A vessel 1000 km away will have changed position by the time the missile is launched and when it arrives. If the enemy conducts electronic warfare, disrupts satellites and patrol aircraft, and deploys decoys, long-range capabilities do not necessarily guarantee hit rates. For the 25SSM air-launched variant to serve as an effective deterrent, the extent to which U.S. wide-area surveillance and Self-Defense Force fire control are connected without waiting for political decisions will be crucial.

This photo serves as a small piece of evidence that rather than simply showing "a new missile has flown," Japan's counterattack capabilities are beginning to branch out across land, sea, and air.

On the same day, July 31, North Korea condemned the increase of U.S. forces in Japan as a dangerous factor for conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Not only China but also North Korea views the Japanese archipelago not merely as a rear base, but as a forward operational base where the U.S. military and the Self-Defense Forces operate together. The undisclosed missile suspended beneath the F-2 is likely to further strengthen that perception.

Points of Uncertainty That Should Be Viewed Cautiously

Of course, at this stage, neither the official model name nor the mass production timeline has been confirmed. Some speculate it could be called ASM-4 based on the photo, but this is merely a convenient guess. The challenge for Japan's defense industry lies not in the success of tests, but in mass production, maintenance, and ammunition stockpiling. The true weakness in the defense of the Nansei Islands is not the bravery of the launch platform, but rather how many missiles can be stored where for a prolonged conflict and from which runways they can continue to launch.

The new armament for the F-2 is easy to understand as a deterrent. However, the practical realities of war often collapse due to mundane shortages of munitions, runways, and data links. What this test flight is questioning is not whether Japan possesses long-range missiles, but whether it can use them effectively within the overall firepower cycle of the alliance without remaining silent.