U.S.-Japan Extended Deterrence Dialogue and China's Export Restrictions on Japan: New Tensions in East Asian Security

On February 18, 2026, the U.S.-Japan Expanded Deterrence Dialogue (EDD) held at the State Department in Washington, D.C., marked a significant turning point that reflects the shared resolve of President Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takichi to further strengthen the deterrent and response capabilities of their alliance. This dialogue included senior officials from the U.S. State Department and the Department of Defense (formerly known as the War Department), as well as representatives from Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defense, the Japan Self-Defense Forces Joint Staff Office, the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, U.S. Strategic Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

The most noteworthy aspect of this EDD was the reaffirmation that the United States is committed to Japan's defense using all defense capabilities, including nuclear weapons. This clear guarantee of the nuclear umbrella is set against the backdrop of a deteriorating regional security environment characterized by China's rapid, opaque, and destabilizing nuclear weapons buildup and testing, as well as Russia's historical violations of arms control. The U.S. reiterated the necessity of multilateral strategic stability and arms control negotiations, while Japan welcomed the U.S. intention to achieve better agreements and emphasized the importance of engaging Russia and China.

The delegations from both countries also discussed the progress of North Korea's (DPRK) nuclear and missile programs, reaffirming their joint commitment to the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, they exchanged views on the importance of the U.S.-Japan Expanded Deterrence Guidelines, strategic messaging of the alliance, crisis communication, and enhancing coordination to support U.S. extended deterrence backed by Japan's defense capabilities. Regular tabletop exercises were also conducted during this dialogue, advancing the establishment of practical cooperation frameworks.

On the other hand, in response to the strengthening of the U.S.-Japan alliance, China took swift countermeasures. On February 24, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced the addition of 20 companies and institutions involved in Japan's military capability enhancement to its export control watch list. The Chinese side explained that this measure aims to curb Tokyo's "remilitarization" and potential nuclear weapons development ambitions.

The list includes major industrial players such as SUBARU Corporation, Sumitomo Heavy Industries, and TDK Corporation, as well as research institutions and trading companies. Chinese exporters are prohibited from exporting dual-use items applicable to both civilian and military use to these 20 companies. Additionally, foreign organizations and individuals are also banned from transferring or providing Chinese-origin dual-use items to these companies, and existing transactions must be immediately halted.

A spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated, "The purpose of these measures is to prevent Japan's 'remilitarization' and nuclear ambitions," asserting that they are "completely legal, reasonable, and lawful." At the same time, they added, "These measures will not affect normal economic and trade exchanges between China and Japan. Japanese companies that act in good faith and comply with the law need not worry."

However, the market reaction was mixed. According to Reuters, SUBARU's stock fell by 3.5%, while Mitsubishi Materials' stock rose by 3.8%, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' stock also increased, indicating a divergence among companies. The Chinese side warned that restrictions would apply to transactions involving Japanese companies not on the list if they relate to military end-users, military applications, or any other potential contributions to Japan's military capability enhancement.

This series of moves coincides with Prime Minister Takichi's landslide victory in the elections and the mandate for Japan's military power enhancement. As pointed out in a Bloomberg opinion piece, the Takichi administration is showing a willingness to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP and take on greater responsibilities for peacekeeping in Asia. This should serve as a reason for the U.S. to deepen its alliance rather than use it as an excuse for withdrawal, a view that is gaining traction in the U.S. policy community.

Japan's defense enhancement is based on a historic arms buildup plan amounting to approximately 9 trillion yen by the mid-2020s. This plan includes the deployment of the Type 12 surface-to-ship missile with a range of 300 km (for the defense of the southwestern islands) and the development of a high-speed glide missile with a range of 1,000 km. Furthermore, legislation to facilitate the engagement of reserve Self-Defense Forces personnel in regular duties has been submitted to the National Diet, advancing the strengthening of the substantive defense framework.

The security environment in East Asia is further complicated by a diplomatic crisis between China and Japan expected from late 2025 to early 2026. The Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army announced on December 29, 2025, a large-scale military exercise named "Mission of Justice 2025" around Taiwan, mobilizing land, sea, air, and rocket forces. Additionally, the Japanese government has advised fishermen to avoid the waters around the Senkaku Islands to prevent deterioration of relations with China after the end of 2025, according to reports from Reuters.

Meanwhile, Japan-South Korea defense cooperation is also steadily progressing. The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and the South Korean Navy are planning to resume search and rescue exercises that were conducted ten times between 1999 and 2017. This biennial exercise focuses on maritime distress scenarios near the Korean Peninsula and symbolizes the maritime cooperation between the two countries. However, reports have also emerged that the South Korean government requested the U.S. to exclude Japan from joint air training, suggesting that historical emotional issues may still pose barriers to cooperation.

The recent U.S.-Japan Expanded Deterrence Dialogue and China's countermeasures indicate that the security dynamics in East Asia have entered a new phase. The clear reaffirmation of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, Japan's defense enhancement, and China's use of economic coercion are three intertwined elements that are heightening military tensions in the region. In particular, China's strategy of applying pressure on Japan's defense industrial base through economic measures suggests a new form of competition that transcends traditional military-to-military confrontations.

The focus going forward will be on how Japan can continue to enhance its defense capabilities while responding to China's economic pressure, and to what extent the U.S. will provide support as an ally. As the U.S.-Japan alliance evolves into a "completely equal relationship," both countries will need to maintain a difficult balance between strengthening deterrence and stabilizing the region. The Indo-Pacific region in the mid-2020s is at a historical turning point, and this series of moves may just be the prologue.