U.S. Media: The Outline of "Future Warfare" Clearly Emerges in Iran

Reference News Network, March 25 report The Washington Post website published an article on March 20 titled "In Iran, the Future of War is Gradually Emerging," authored by Fareed Zakaria. The full excerpt is as follows:

Under the daily headlines of attacks in the Middle East, the nature of warfare is undergoing a complete transformation. These trends were already evident on the battlefield in Ukraine, and in Iran, the contours of future warfare are becoming clear.

Michael Horowitz and Lauren Kahn from the Council on Foreign Relations stated, "We have now entered the era of precision large-scale warfare." This statement is very accurate. For decades, precision warfare meant Tomahawk missiles, stealth bombers, or fighter jets; today, it can be a disposable drone assembled from commercial components and launched in swarms. In the past, such combat capabilities could only be possessed by industrial powers, but now an increasing number of small and medium-sized countries can assemble, modify, and deploy drones on a large scale.

The economic logic of warfare is being completely overturned. The cost of a "Shahed" drone is typically around $35,000, while a Patriot missile interceptor costs about $4 million—enough to purchase over a hundred drones. This is the new algorithm of conflict: attackers only need to spend tens of thousands of dollars, while defenders must expend multiples of that amount; even if defense is successful, it will devolve into a war of attrition.

But this military transformation goes far beyond drones. Its core essence is a completely new military system that includes low-cost autonomous combat systems, AI-assisted target acquisition, commercial satellite imagery, highly resilient communications, integrated sensors, and cyber warfare tools working in coordination. The goal is not just to strike but to compress the time of operations, discovering targets, making decisions, and executing strikes faster than the enemy's mobility, concealment, or recovery speed.

The old model of military hegemony relied on high-end combat systems characterized by superior performance, high costs, and long production cycles; losses would come at a heavy price. But relying solely on these systems is no longer sufficient.

The victor in future wars may no longer be the side with a single top-tier combat platform, but rather the one that can deploy a large number of quality combat platforms at a sufficiently low cost and network them intelligently. A sufficient quantity of good equipment will ultimately prevail over a small number of top-tier equipment.

The United States has now deployed low-cost unmanned combat attack systems, a low-cost attack drone modeled after Iran's "Shahed." In fact, the world's most advanced military forces are all imitating this, simply because the underlying logic of warfare has already changed. Quantity itself has generated a unique quality advantage—especially after integrating with software, autonomous technology, and real-time communication technology. Horowitz and Kahn believe that precision large-scale combat forces will "become as common as machine guns or tanks," becoming a regular feature of warfare.

This military revolution also contains many more far-reaching implications. The emergence of drones makes the battlefield omnipresent, and soldiers will not get a moment's respite. Combat personnel are distanced from the front lines, which may make the decision to wage war easier, but it also makes it easier for wars to become stalemated.

The Gulf War of 1991 made the world understand that advanced technology can enable precision in warfare.

By 2026, Iran is conveying an even more important message to the world: precision combat capabilities will now be capable of mass production. The country that ultimately prevails will no longer be merely the one with the finest combat platforms, but rather the one that can combine a small number of high-end, high-cost weapons with a vast number of inexpensive drones. (Translated by Wang Diqing)