Analysis & Reports

AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources

FP-5 Flamingo Strikes Volgograd and Shows the Limits of Russian Defense in 2026

FP-5 Flamingo Strikes Volgograd and Shows the Limits of Russian Defense in 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentLogisticsHybrid

Ukrainian forces struck a key military industrial site in Volgograd on June 27, 2026, using FP-5 Flamingo missiles, highlighting the limitations of Russian defense systems. This attack is part of a larger Ukrainian strategy to disrupt Russian military production capabilities, as Russia has reportedly deployed around 1400 strike drones and 1500 guided bombs in recent operations. The incident underscores the evolving nature of the conflict, with Ukraine increasingly targeting critical infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jun 27 2026

129 Russian UAVs overnight demonstrate a new arithmetic of pressure on Ukraine in 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

Russian forces launched 129 drones at Ukraine on the night of June 26-27, 2026, with 113 intercepted or suppressed by Ukrainian defenses. The attacks targeted multiple locations, creating pressure on Ukrainian air defense systems and resulting in civilian casualties. This operation reflects a strategic shift in Russian tactics, focusing on overwhelming Ukrainian defenses with mass drone attacks.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jun 27 2026
A Strike on NORSI Exposed the Fuel Vulnerability of the Russian Army in 2026

A Strike on NORSI Exposed the Fuel Vulnerability of the Russian Army in 2026

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian drones attacked the NORSI oil refinery in Kstovo on June 25-26, 2026, damaging a CDU-5 unit and disrupting 25% of its production capacity. This strike highlights vulnerabilities in the Russian military's logistics, particularly regarding fuel supply. Following the attack, fuel prices in Russia rose by 3%, indicating significant economic repercussions. Concurrently, Ukrainian drones targeted Tula Oblast and Crimea, further stressing Russian military resources.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jun 26 2026
257 clashes in a day show the new price of Russian pressure near Pokrovsk

257 clashes in a day show the new price of Russian pressure near Pokrovsk

Military OperationsCasualties & LossesWeapons & EquipmentHybrid

On June 26, 2026, Russian forces engaged in 257 combat incidents, with 31 assaults in Pokrovsk and additional attacks in Sloviansk and Huliaipole. Ukrainian reports indicate 1310 Russian personnel losses and significant equipment losses, including 68 artillery systems. The Russian military employed a combination of ground assaults, missile strikes, and drone operations, reflecting a sustained pressure strategy against Ukrainian defenses.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jun 26 2026
The Crimean Drone Campaign of 2026 Forces Russia to Tighten Air Defense Around the Bridge

The Crimean Drone Campaign of 2026 Forces Russia to Tighten Air Defense Around the Bridge

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on energy infrastructure in Crimea on June 25, 2026, leading to significant disruptions in power supply and transportation. The Russian military is reportedly redeploying air defense systems to Moscow and the Kerch Bridge in response to these attacks. The situation has resulted in long queues of vehicles at the Kerch Bridge and a reduction in train services to Crimea, highlighting the increasing vulnerability of the region.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jun 25 2026
Translators for "Geraniums" in Belarus fell silent on June 22 — how the Russian strike scheme is changing

Translators for "Geraniums" in Belarus fell silent on June 22 — how the Russian strike scheme is changing

Command & ControlMilitary OperationsOperational

Relay stations in Belarus used for coordinating Russian drone strikes stopped functioning on June 22, 2026, impacting the operational capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces. Ukrainian Air Force reported intercepting 83 out of 90 Russian drones on June 25, indicating ongoing drone operations despite the communication disruption. This situation may alter the routes and tactics of Russian drone attacks, as Belarusian infrastructure played a crucial role in their operations.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jun 25 2026

The 25 Percent Drop in Gasoline Production Reveals a New Weakness in the Russian War

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Gasoline production in Russia decreased by 25% from June 15 to June 21, 2025, revealing vulnerabilities in the Russian war effort. Fuel supply restrictions have been implemented across various regions, and the government is contemplating increasing fuel imports to address the crisis. The situation is exacerbated by Ukrainian drone strikes targeting oil refining facilities, affecting military logistics and operations.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jun 25 2026
S-400 in the Kerch Strait loses protective dome after strikes on June 24

S-400 in the Kerch Strait loses protective dome after strikes on June 24

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentLogisticsHybrid

Ukrainian forces conducted airstrikes on Russian S-400 air defense systems near the Kerch Strait on June 24, 2026, resulting in the destruction of four systems and two Pantsir-S1 systems. Additionally, the Orenburg gas processing plant was targeted, highlighting a shift in Ukrainian strategy towards critical infrastructure. Reports suggest that Russian air defense assets are being redeployed to Moscow and the Kerch Bridge, indicating a potential crisis in air defense distribution.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovWed Jun 24 2026
60 Goals in Crimea Overnight Change the Logic of Russian Defense in Southern Ukraine

60 Goals in Crimea Overnight Change the Logic of Russian Defense in Southern Ukraine

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on over 60 Russian military targets in Crimea during the night of June 22-23, 2026, disrupting logistics and supply lines. Key targets included S-300 launchers and various logistical hubs, leading to a significant reduction in Russian supplies. The Russian military is reportedly adapting by enhancing camouflage and deploying mobile groups to counter Ukrainian drone operations.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovWed Jun 24 2026

A Strike on the Voronezh Semiconductor Plant Puts the Pace of the X-101 and Pantsir-S1 in 2026 in Question

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces struck the Voronezh semiconductor plant on June 22, 2026, damaging a facility crucial for producing components for X-101 missiles and Pantsir-S1 systems. This attack highlights a strategic shift in Ukrainian operations, targeting key nodes in the Russian military supply chain. The Russian governor confirmed the damage, indicating potential impacts on military logistics and production capabilities.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Jun 23 2026
70 missiles and 600 drones show the new formula of Russian strikes on Ukraine

70 missiles and 600 drones show the new formula of Russian strikes on Ukraine

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

Russia executed a series of coordinated strikes against Ukraine in June 2023, deploying over 600 drones and approximately 70 missiles, primarily targeting Kyiv. The attacks involved a mix of ballistic and hypersonic missiles, reflecting a shift in military strategy. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted a significant portion of the incoming threats, but the strikes aimed to overwhelm these systems. This new approach indicates a potential strain on Russian missile production capabilities as they adapt their tactics.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Jun 23 2026
301 Ukrainian Drone Against Moscow and Crimea — Testing Russian Air Defense in Summer 2026

301 Ukrainian Drone Against Moscow and Crimea — Testing Russian Air Defense in Summer 2026

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian drones targeted Moscow and Crimea on June 21-22, 2026, leading to the interception of 301 drones and significant disruptions in air traffic. Four airports in Moscow were temporarily closed, and in Crimea, four people were killed and 28 injured, prompting a suspension of fuel sales. The attacks highlighted the operational pressure on Russian air defense and civilian infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jun 22 2026

Strikes on the Kerch Strait on June 21 Change the Supply Arithmetic of Crimea

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on maritime logistics and oil infrastructure in Crimea on June 21, 2023, targeting seven ferries and air defense systems. The attacks significantly impacted Russian supply routes, particularly affecting the port of Kavkaz and oil facilities. Russian authorities confirmed the strikes, indicating a reduction in logistical capacity for their military operations in the region.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Jun 22 2026
Strikes on Kerch and Chongar in June 2026 Reveal Weakness in Russian Logistics

Strikes on Kerch and Chongar in June 2026 Reveal Weakness in Russian Logistics

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted airstrikes on Russian logistics and military infrastructure in Kerch and Chongar on June 21, 2026. The strikes targeted oil facilities and S-400 air defense systems, aiming to disrupt Russian supply lines. Damage to key transport routes, including bridges, has been reported, complicating logistics for Russian forces. In response, Russia claimed to have downed numerous Ukrainian drones and conducted retaliatory strikes.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Jun 21 2026
The Genichesk Bridge Under Threat Again — Ukrainian Drones Tighten Crimea's Logistics in June 2026

The Genichesk Bridge Under Threat Again — Ukrainian Drones Tighten Crimea's Logistics in June 2026

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes on the Genichesk Bridge and air defense systems on June 20, 2026, targeting logistics in Crimea. The strikes also hit UAV control points in Zaporizhia Oblast, aiming to disrupt Russian supply routes. This operation reflects a strategic shift in Ukraine's approach to managing Russian military operations in the region.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jun 20 2026
Lightning-Air Defense goes hunting for Ukrainian UAVs and changes the ground-based air defense of Russia

Lightning-Air Defense goes hunting for Ukrainian UAVs and changes the ground-based air defense of Russia

Weapons & EquipmentMilitary OperationsOperational

The Russian military has begun deploying 'Molniya-PVO' drone interceptors to target Ukrainian UAVs, marking a shift from traditional air defense strategies to low-altitude interception. This new approach aims to counter the increasing threat posed by inexpensive UAVs, as the military adapts to the economic realities of modern warfare. The effectiveness of these interceptors has been noted in recent engagements, indicating a significant change in operational tactics.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Jun 20 2026
Two Foreign Vessels in the Black Sea Became Part of Russia's Logic of Retribution 2026

Two Foreign Vessels in the Black Sea Became Part of Russia's Logic of Retribution 2026

Military OperationsCasualties & LossesOperational

On June 19, 2026, Russian drones attacked two civilian vessels in the Black Sea, resulting in one death and five injuries among the crew. The vessels, flagged from Panama and Saint Kitts and Nevis, were targeted as part of Russia's strategy to disrupt maritime operations and exert control over shipping routes. This incident follows a significant Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow, indicating escalating tensions in the region.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Jun 19 2026
Kutuzovka and New Donbass Show the Arithmetic of the Russian Offensive in 2026

Kutuzovka and New Donbass Show the Arithmetic of the Russian Offensive in 2026

Military OperationsCasualties & LossesOperational

Russian forces captured Novy Donbass on June 16 and Kutuzovka on June 17, 2026, reporting significant Ukrainian casualties of approximately 1,330 and 1,370 respectively. The operational costs are rising, and the front line is not advancing at a pace that justifies these costs. Ukraine is also targeting Russian logistics further behind the front lines, complicating Russian supply efforts.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jun 18 2026
555 Drones Over Russia — Strike on Moscow Oil Refinery Reveals Limits of Air Defense

555 Drones Over Russia — Strike on Moscow Oil Refinery Reveals Limits of Air Defense

Military OperationsLogisticsOperational

Ukrainian drones attacked the Moscow Oil Refinery on June 18, 2026, causing a fire and disruptions at nearby airports. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have intercepted 555 drones, with around 180 targeting Moscow. This incident underscores the vulnerabilities in Russian air defense and the impact of drone warfare on critical infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Jun 18 2026
Curfew for Mopeds in Crimea Indicates the Crisis of Russian Air Defense 2026

Curfew for Mopeds in Crimea Indicates the Crisis of Russian Air Defense 2026

LogisticsMilitary OperationsOperational

On June 17, 2026, Russian occupation authorities in Crimea imposed a curfew on mopeds and similar vehicles from 20:00 to 06:00 to assist air defense operations. This measure follows increased Ukrainian drone strikes targeting critical infrastructure, highlighting logistical challenges faced by Russian forces. Reports indicate that fuel shortages and restrictions are affecting military supply routes, reflecting a significant crisis in Russian air defense capabilities.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovWed Jun 17 2026