Analysis & Reports

Russia declared a unilateral ceasefire from May 8 to May 9, 2026, but it was violated by drone strikes on Kharkiv, injuring civilians. Ukrainian forces intercepted 27 Russian drones during this period, while total Russian combat losses reached approximately 1,341,110 personnel. A reconnaissance drone was discovered near Kaliningrad, indicating ongoing Russian probing of NATO boundaries. The EU is set to discuss military support for Ukraine on May 12, 2026.

Dmitri VolkovSun May 10 2026Loading...

Russian forces continue to engage in relentless combat operations in Ukraine, with personnel losses exceeding 1.3 million. The MIVD reports significant improvements in Russian military capabilities, including enhanced command and control and the effective use of drones. Despite heavy casualties, Russia maintains a robust industrial-scale combat power generation. The situation remains dynamic, with potential implications for NATO's eastern flank as Russia adapts its military strategy.

Dmitri VolkovSun May 10 2026Loading...

As of May 10, 2026, cumulative Russian personnel losses in the Ukraine war reached approximately 1,341,110, while Ukrainian casualties are estimated at around half a million. The daily combat-death ratios have shifted unfavorably for Ukraine in 2025. Russian forces are reportedly transforming and adapting, becoming a qualitatively superior fighting force compared to their initial invasion in February 2022.

Dmitri VolkovSun May 10 2026Loading...

Russia declared a unilateral ceasefire from May 8 to 9, 2026, while Ukraine announced its own ceasefire starting May 5. During Ukraine's ceasefire, Russian forces conducted airstrikes, resulting in at least 21 civilian deaths and 82 injuries. The conflict continues to evolve with NATO increasing military exercises in response to the situation.

Dmitri VolkovSat May 09 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces launched a deep-strike campaign in early May 2026, targeting critical infrastructure in Russia, including the Kirishinefteorgsintez oil refinery and the VNIIR-Progress plant. The strikes involved F-5 Flamingo missiles and resulted in significant damage and operational halts. Concurrently, Russian forces engaged in retaliatory strikes and reported substantial personnel and equipment losses. The conflict's dynamics have shifted, with Ukrainian capabilities reaching deep into Russian territory.

Dmitri VolkovSat May 09 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces conducted significant long-range strikes against Russian infrastructure in May 2026, targeting key facilities such as the Kirishinefteorgsintez oil refinery and the VNIIR-Progress plant. These actions exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's air defense systems, prompting airport closures across fifteen cities. The strikes reflect a strategic shift in the conflict, with Ukraine demonstrating the capability to reach deep into Russian territory.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 08 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drones targeted Moscow on May 8, 2026, coinciding with a Russian ceasefire announcement. Ukrainian forces have successfully counterattacked, liberating over 400 square kilometers, while Russian combat losses have reached approximately 1,339,190 personnel. The operational momentum of Russian forces has significantly slowed, prompting a transformation in their military doctrine towards positional warfare and attrition.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 08 2026Loading...

Russia declared a ceasefire from May 8-9, threatening missile strikes on Kyiv if disrupted. Ukraine reported over 1,800 violations of its ceasefire, leading to civilian casualties. Ukrainian forces escalated deep strikes on Russian oil refineries, while NATO conducted military exercises in response to the heightened tensions. Russia launched a record 409 drones in a single wave against Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovThu May 07 2026Loading...

On May 3, 2026, Ukraine executed a significant drone offensive against Russian targets, including oil infrastructure in Primorsk. In response, Russia launched a counter-offensive with drones and missiles. The conflict has intensified, with both sides engaging in unprecedented aerial exchanges, while Ukraine's strikes aim to degrade Russia's economic capacity. Diplomatic tensions escalated with Russia proposing a ceasefire, which Ukraine dismissed, leading to further military actions.

Dmitri VolkovWed May 06 2026Loading...

In April 2026, Russian forces lost approximately 116 square kilometers of territory, marking a significant setback. Ukrainian unmanned aerial systems conducted deep strikes on the Shagol airfield, damaging multiple Russian aircraft. Concurrently, Ukraine intensified its campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, striking the Tuapse refinery multiple times. President Zelensky announced a reform of Ukraine's armed forces, set to begin in June 2026, aimed at improving military effectiveness.

Dmitri VolkovWed May 06 2026Loading...

On May 5, 2023, Ukraine executed deep-strike operations, launching Flamingo cruise missiles into Russian territory, targeting the JSC VNIIR-Progress facility in Cheboksary and the Kirishi oil refinery in Leningrad Oblast. The strikes represent a significant escalation in Ukraine's military capabilities, with Russia responding with missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian territory, resulting in civilian casualties. Concurrently, Ukraine proposed a ceasefire to commence on May 6, challenging Russia's response.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 05 2026Loading...

A Ukrainian drone struck the Mosfilm Tower in Moscow on May 4, 2026, marking a significant escalation in the conflict. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces targeted military assets in Leningrad Oblast and Novorossiysk, while Russian missile strikes in Kharkiv Oblast resulted in civilian casualties. The report highlights growing political tensions within NATO, particularly following U.S. troop reductions in Europe.

Dmitri VolkovMon May 04 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drones struck a residential building in Moscow on May 4, 2026, marking a significant escalation in Ukraine's long-range strike campaign. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces targeted Russian naval assets in the Gulf of Finland and conducted multiple drone strikes on oil refineries and military installations. NATO's Exercise Sword 26, involving 15,500 participants, aims to validate combat readiness across the eastern flank. These developments reflect a shifting strategic landscape in the ongoing conflict.

Dmitri VolkovMon May 04 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces executed a series of drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, including the Tuapse oil refinery and tankers near Novorossiysk, from May 1 to 3, 2026. The attacks aimed to degrade Russia's oil export capabilities and were part of a broader deep-strike campaign. Concurrently, ground combat intensified along the eastern front, with significant engagements reported. Ukrainian drones also damaged Russian fighter jets at Shagol airfield, highlighting the expanding operational reach of Ukrainian forces.

Dmitri VolkovSun May 03 2026Loading...

On May 1, 2026, Russia launched a significant daytime drone assault involving over 400 unmanned aerial vehicles targeting Ukraine, injuring civilians in Ternopil. Concurrently, NATO conducted Exercise Sword 26 across eight countries, involving 15,500 personnel and 1,100 pieces of equipment, aimed at validating combat capabilities. This dual escalation highlights the ongoing military conflict and the evolving nature of warfare in Europe.

Dmitri VolkovSun May 03 2026Loading...

In May 2026, the U.S. announced the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany, marking a significant reduction in its military presence in Europe. This decision, framed as a response to political remarks by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has raised concerns among NATO planners about the implications for European security. Concurrently, European nations are increasing their defense spending and capabilities, while Ukraine continues to innovate in its military operations against Russia.

Dmitri VolkovSat May 02 2026Loading...

In May 2026, the U.S. announced the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany, marking a significant reduction in its military presence in Europe. This decision, framed as a response to political remarks by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has raised concerns among NATO planners. Concurrently, European nations are increasing their defense spending, with Poland and Romania maintaining U.S. military support against Russian aggression. The evolving security landscape is further complicated by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian military assets.

Dmitri VolkovSat May 02 2026Loading...

NATO launched Exercise Sword 26 in Germany with 15,500 troops from 11 countries in April 2026, focusing on coordinated multi-domain operations. Ukrainian forces executed deep-strike campaigns against Russian targets, including oil infrastructure and military assets, reaching 1,400 kilometers into Russia. In response, Russia increased drone attacks and adapted its tactics. The U.S. also provided $400 million in defense funding to Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 01 2026Loading...

Ukraine conducted long-range strikes against Russian military targets from April 28 to 30, 2023, leading to the cancellation of Russia's Victory Day parade. The strikes included attacks on military helicopters in Voronezh Oblast and infrastructure in Perm and Orenburg Oblasts. This escalation reflects Ukraine's evolving strike capabilities and has significant implications for Russian military operations and morale.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 01 2026Loading...

In April 2026, Ukraine intensified its drone warfare, conducting 18 strikes against Russian oil infrastructure and destroying four helicopters in Voronezh Oblast. Russian forces deployed over 8,400 kamikaze drones in a single day, while Ukraine's interceptor drones achieved a 90% interception rate. The conflict's drone dimension has become a critical operational focus, with Ukraine demonstrating the ability to strike deep into Russian territory.

Dmitri VolkovThu Apr 30 2026Loading...