Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
Burkina Faso on the Brink of the Abyss: The JNIM Offensive and the Strategic Powerlessness of the Traoré Junta
JNIM launched coordinated attacks in Burkina Faso from January 29 to February 22, 2026, resulting in the deaths of at least 38 civilians and 120 soldiers. The assaults targeted military and gendarmerie bases, leading to significant infrastructure damage. This offensive highlights the strategic failures of the Traoré regime amid rising jihadist influence in the region.
Marie DuboisSun Mar 29 2026Loading...The Alliance of Sahel States in the Face of the Failure of the Russian Partnership: Analysis of a Failed Security Transition
In March 2026, the Joint Anti-Terrorism Battalion, comprising 5,000 troops from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, conducted operations against jihadist groups. Despite Russian support, the region faces escalating violence, highlighted by attacks in Mopti, Mali, and Burkina Faso, resulting in multiple casualties. The lack of effective regional coordination has allowed jihadist groups to expand their operations.
Marie DuboisSun Mar 29 2026Loading...ECOWAS appoints a new mediator in the Sahel break: Lansana Kouyaté tasked with restoring dialogue with the AES
Lansana Kouyaté was appointed as the chief negotiator by ECOWAS on March 25, 2026, to restore dialogue with the Sahelian states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, which have withdrawn from the organization. The region is facing severe security challenges from jihadist groups, and Kouyaté's mission is seen as critical in addressing the political and military tensions between ECOWAS and the military-led governments of the Sahel.
Marie DuboisSat Mar 28 2026Loading...
The Regional Offensive of JNIM Reveals the Fragmentation of the Sahel Security Architecture
Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) launched a large-scale offensive in February 2026, attacking military bases in Makalondi, Niger, and throughout Burkina Faso, resulting in over 120 casualties. Concurrently, the Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP) attacked JNIM positions, killing more than 40 fighters. The offensive highlights the fragmentation of security in the Sahel, as regional military alliances shift and new threats emerge.
Marie DuboisSat Mar 28 2026Loading...
The Sahel Facing a Triple Threat: the Expansion of JNIM, the Failure of Russian Engagement, and Regional Fragmentation
Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) has significantly expanded its operations in Burkina Faso and surrounding regions, conducting coordinated attacks and establishing a presence in Benin, Togo, Ivory Coast, and Nigeria from 2024 to 2026. The Malian Armed Forces have engaged in operations against JNIM, while the Russian Wagner Group's military efforts have proven ineffective, leading to increased violence and instability in the region. The situation reflects a deteriorating security environment in the Sahel.
Marie DuboisFri Mar 27 2026Loading...The Alliance of Sahel States Facing the Test of the Unified Force: Between Strategic Ambitions and Operational Challenges
The Unified Force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising 6,000 soldiers, was established in December 2025 in Niamey, Niger, to combat escalating violence in the Sahel. The force aims to operate across borders without restrictions, unlike the previous G5 Sahel force. JNIM and ISSP have intensified their attacks, including a significant assault on Niamey's airport, highlighting the urgent need for effective military coordination in the region.
Marie DuboisThu Mar 26 2026Loading...The Alliance of Sahel States Facing the Test of the Unified Force: Between Strategic Ambitions and Operational Challenges
The Unified Force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), comprising 6,000 soldiers, was established in December 2025 in Niamey, Niger, to combat escalating violence in the Sahel. The region has seen a dramatic increase in security incidents, with over 9,000 deaths reported in 2025. JNIM and ISSP have intensified their operations, including a notable attack on Niamey's airport. The AES aims for operational autonomy and has diversified its military partnerships, moving away from reliance on France.
Marie DuboisThu Mar 26 2026Loading...
The Sahelian Fracture: Between the ECOWAS Anti-Terrorism Force and the American Deployment in Nigeria
In February 2026, ECOWAS approved the formation of a new counter-terrorism force comprising 1,650 troops from six West African nations. Concurrently, U.S. troops were deployed in Nigeria to assist in counter-terrorism efforts, marking a significant shift in regional security dynamics. The report emphasizes the challenges faced by ECOWAS in mobilizing resources and the implications of U.S. involvement in the region's security landscape.
Marie DuboisThu Mar 26 2026Loading...The Alliance of Sahel States in the Face of Intensifying Terrorism in 2026
JNIM controls 60% of Burkina Faso as the AES struggles to counter terrorism. In January 2026, a coordinated attack targeted the Dori Hamani airport and base 101 in Niger, highlighting vulnerabilities in military infrastructure. The AES's joint force of 5,000 soldiers remains largely ineffective, while JNIM's operational sophistication increases, threatening regional stability.
Marie DuboisWed Mar 25 2026Loading...The Alliance of Sahel States Facing the Challenges of Information Warfare: Between Institutional Consolidation and Disinformation
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES), formed in September 2023 by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, is facing a significant disinformation campaign aimed at undermining its legitimacy. Since late 2025, various fake social media accounts have targeted AES leaders, spreading false information and deepfakes. This disinformation is compounded by the ongoing jihadist insurgency in the region, complicating the AES's efforts to establish a stable security architecture.
Marie DuboisWed Mar 25 2026Loading...
The Security Deterioration in Central Sahel: Between Jihadist Offensive and Counterinsurgency Response
In 2026, jihadist groups intensified operations across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, leading to significant casualties and a deteriorating security situation. The Tillabéri region in Niger became the deadliest area, with over 50 civilian deaths from major attacks. The GSIM executed coordinated assaults in Burkina Faso, showcasing their operational capabilities. Counter-insurgency efforts by state forces have been marked by severe human rights violations.
Marie DuboisTue Mar 24 2026Loading...
Sahel: The Forest Strategy of Terrorist Groups Disrupts Regional Security
Terrorist groups, including JNIM and ISSP, have escalated their operations in the Sahel, utilizing forests as strategic bases for attacks and illegal activities. In 2025, over 9,362 people were killed in security incidents across Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. The U.S. has deployed drones to Nigeria to assist in counter-terrorism efforts, while the region faces increasing violence and humanitarian crises due to armed groups blocking aid and targeting civilians.
Marie DuboisTue Mar 24 2026Loading...
The Sahel on the Brink of the Abyss: Strategic Reconfiguration in the Face of Jihadist Expansion
Jama'at al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) conducted coordinated attacks across Burkina Faso in February 2026, demonstrating significant operational capability. The Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP) targeted military infrastructure in Niger in January 2026. In response, ECOWAS announced plans to form a 2,000-soldier counter-terrorism force by the end of 2026. Concurrently, the U.S. deployed MQ-9 Reaper drones and 200 troops to Nigeria, marking a strategic repositioning in the region.
Marie DuboisMon Mar 23 2026Loading...
West Africa Facing the Jihadist Challenge: Between Regional Fragmentation and Attempts at Collective Response
In February 2026, CEDEAO military chiefs met in Freetown, Sierra Leone, to discuss forming a 2,000-man anti-terrorist force amid escalating jihadist threats in the Sahel. JNIM has consolidated control over significant territory in Burkina Faso, while ISSP has demonstrated operational sophistication with drone and mortar attacks. The report highlights the urgent need for effective regional cooperation to address the growing security crisis.
Marie DuboisMon Mar 23 2026Loading...The Sahel after Barkhane: Restructuring Security Arrangements and the Persistence of the Jihadist Threat
French forces completed their withdrawal from Mali between 2022 and 2025, leaving a security vacuum exploited by jihadist groups like Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Mouslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (EIGS). The security situation has worsened, with increased attacks on national forces and over 2.5 million internally displaced persons. The dissolution of the UN mission in Mali in December 2023 further complicates stabilization efforts.
Marie DuboisSun Mar 22 2026Loading...
The American Return to Nigeria: 200 Soldiers and MQ-9 Drones Deployed Against the Jihadist Threat
The U.S. deployed 200 troops and several MQ-9 Reaper drones to Northeast Nigeria in January 2026 to combat jihadist threats from ISIS and al-Qaeda affiliates. This deployment marks a strategic shift in U.S. military presence in West Africa, focusing on intelligence support and training for Nigerian forces. The operation is part of a broader partnership with Nigeria amid escalating violence in the Sahel region.
Marie DuboisSun Mar 22 2026Loading...The Sahel in 2026: Strategic Reconfiguration and New Dynamics of the Jihadist Threat
Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP) have established operational bases in forest reserves, leading to significant military casualties in Benin and Nigeria. In March 2026, over 120 soldiers were reported killed in various attacks. The U.S. is normalizing relations with Sahelian military juntas, while Côte d'Ivoire faces diplomatic isolation due to its military partnerships with France. This evolving situation highlights the growing influence of jihadist groups in the region.
Marie DuboisSat Mar 21 2026Loading...The Sahel Facing the Failure of Military Juntas: Resurgence of Terrorism and Geopolitical Realignment
On January 29, 2026, thirty fighters from the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) assaulted Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey, Niger, using armed drones, light weapons, and mortars. This two-hour attack highlights the growing operational capacity of jihadist groups in the Sahel, amidst a deteriorating security situation in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, where military juntas struggle to contain terrorism.
Marie DuboisFri Mar 20 2026Loading...The Unified Force of the AES: A New Security Architecture for Central Sahel
The Unified Force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) was established in December 2025, comprising 6,000 troops based in Niamey, Niger. This force aims to operate across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, focusing on countering jihadist threats. The AES has validated its operational capabilities through the Yereko 2 mission and has adopted a multipolar approach to military procurement, enhancing its strategic autonomy.
Marie DuboisFri Mar 20 2026Loading...The Sahel Under Pressure: Jihadist Escalation and the Regional Response to a Persistent Insurrection
On January 29, 2026, the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) launched an assault on Niamey International Airport and Air Base 101, involving 30 fighters equipped with armed drones, light weapons, and mortars. The two-hour nighttime attack was repelled, but it underscored the ongoing threat posed by jihadist groups in the Sahel region. Despite intensified counter-terrorism operations, the incident revealed vulnerabilities in military infrastructure and the capability of insurgents to conduct coordinated attacks.
Marie DuboisWed Mar 18 2026Loading...
